Great Lakes Ice Forecasting PDF Download

While many previous studies have highlighted important ice-atmosphere relationships in the Great Lakes, there remains a disconnect between the science and an objective 30-day forecast. In particular, most previous studies focused on temporally consistent (e.g. winter ice cover and winter mean temperatures) analyses, which are not applicable for forecasting. Additionally, most studies demonstrated only basin-scale linkages (i.e. the Great Lakes a single entity), but forecasters need information on scales specific to individual lakes or ports. Thus, the major challenges facing development of an objective statistical 30-day ice forecast are related to a lack of studies concerning how sub-basin scale ice cover variations are associated with atmospheric and ice conditions in preceding months.