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Understanding Volatility - the Case of the Introduction of Futures Trading in the National Stock Exchange, India

Understanding Volatility - the Case of the Introduction of Futures Trading in the National Stock Exchange, India
Author: Saurabh Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

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This project attempts to investigate the effect of the introduction of Futures trading in the National Stock Exchange, India (NSE) and get insights into the effect upon the volatility of the NSE. The underlying spot market volatility is estimated using symmetric GARCH methods. Any increase in stock market volatility that has followed the onset of futures trading has generally been taken as justifying the traditional view that the introduction of futures markets induces destabilizing speculation. This has led to calls for greater regulation to minimise any detrimental effects. An alternative view is that futures markets provide an additional route by which information can be transmitted, and, therefore, increased spot market volatility may simply be a consequence of the more frequent arrival, and more rapid processing of information. Thus, futures trading may be fully consistent with efficiently functioning markets.This paper attempts to investigate the change, if any, in the volatility observed in the Indian stock market due to the introduction of futures trading. The change in the volatility is compared not only in absolute levels of volatility but also in terms of the structure of the volatility. This is done to give insights into the way the futures market is influencing the Indian spot market's volatility.


Effect of Futures Trading on Spot Market Volatility

Effect of Futures Trading on Spot Market Volatility
Author: Brajesh Kumar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study investigates the relationship between futures trading activity and spot market volatility for agricultural, metal, precious metals and energy commodities in Indian commodity derivatives market. This article contributes to the debate whether the futures trading in Indian commodity futures market stabilizes or destabilizes spot market. We explore this issue by modeling contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between spot volatility and futures trading activity including trading volume (speculative/day trading) and open interest (hedging). Following Bessembinder and Senguin (1992), we examine contemporaneous relationship through augmented GARCH model in which spot volatility is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process and trading activity is used as explanatory variable. We also decompose futures trading volume and open interest series into expected and unexpected component. The lead-lag relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading volume and open interest is investigated through VAR model. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function are used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables. We found that both expected and unexpected futures trading volume affects contemporaneous spot volatility positively. However, in case of agricultural commodities only unexpected volume affects the contemporaneous spot volatility. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function confirm that the lagged unexpected volatility causes spot price volatility for all commodities. The effect of speculative/day trading activity measured by trading volume on spot market volatility is positive. However, hedging activity measured by open interest does not show significant effect on spot market volatility. We do not find any effect of spot volatility on futures trading activity for most of the commodities.


Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility in India

Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility in India
Author: Pretimaya Samanta
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2012-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9783847373360

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Derivatives in the securities markets were launched mainly with the twofold objective of risk transfer and to enhance liquidity in the underlying cash market and thereby ensuring better market efficiency. In the late 1990s, various derivative instruments were introduced in the equity segment of major markets worldwide. It further complicated the volatility behavior of these markets as derivatives opened new avenues for hedging and speculation. Since futures trading encourage speculation, the debate on the impact of speculators on the cash market volatility intensified with the introduction of futures trading. This constitutes the main research problem of this study and the objectives have been set out in accordance to this phenomenon of the derivatives market. The current research work examines the effect of the introduction of futures trading on the volatility of the underlying cash market in India. The standard univariate GARCH model has been used to capture the time-varying nature of volatility and volatility clustering phenomenon in the data. This research study adds a new dimension to the existing literature on futures trading and will be useful to all the market participants.


An Analysis of Price Volatility, Trading Volume and Market Depth of Stock Futures Market in India

An Analysis of Price Volatility, Trading Volume and Market Depth of Stock Futures Market in India
Author: Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2018-03-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3668659958

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Project Report from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , course: Ph. D, language: English, abstract: Every modern economy is based on a sound financial system and acts as a monetary channel for productive purpose with effecting economic growth. It encourages saving habit by throwing open and plethora of instrument avenues suiting to the individuals requirements, mobilizing savings from households and other segments and allocating savings into productive usage such as trade, commerce, manufacture etc. Thus a financial system can also be understood as institutional arrangements, through which financial surpluses are mobilized from the units generating surplus income and transferring them to the others in need of them. In nutshell, financial market, financial assets, financial services and financial institutions constitute the financial system. The activities include exchange and holding of financial assets or instruments of different kinds of financial institutions, banks and other intermediaries of the market. Financial markets provide channels for allocation of savings to investment and provide variety of assets to savers in various forms in which the investors can park their funds. At the same time, financial market is one that integral part of the financial system which makes significant contribution to the countries’ economic development. It establishes a link between the demand and supply of long-term capital funds. The economic strength of a country depends squarely on the state of financial market, apart from the productive potential of the country. The efficient allocation of fund by the capital market depends on the state of capital market. All the countries therefore focus more on the functioning of the capital market. Indian financial market has faced many challenges in the process of effecting more efficient allocation and mobilization of capital. It has attained a remarkable degree of growth in the last decade and in continuing to achieve the same in current decade also. Opening up of the economy and adoption of the liberalized economic policies have driven our economy more towards the free market. Over the last few years, financial markets, more specifically the security market were experiencing a lot of structural and regulatory changes. The major constituents of financial market are money market and the capital market catering to the type of capital requirements.


Index Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility Evidence from an Emerging Market

Index Futures Trading and Spot Market Volatility Evidence from an Emerging Market
Author: Kiran
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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Studies on the impact of futures introduction on the volatility of the underlying index report no increase in the spot volatility after the futures introduction. However, the prior studies do not comment on how exactly the information transmits from the futures market to the spot market. This paper focuses on investigating whether the change in the structure of spot volatility evolution process is due to the futures trading activity. The relation between the Futures trading activity (measured through trading volume and open interest) and spot index volatility is documented, following Bessembinder and Seguin (1992), by partitioning trading activity into expected and shock components by an appropriate ARMA model. The series are then appended in the variance equation through an appropriate ARMA-GARCH model, following Gulen and Mayhew (2000). Further, the study examines the effect of the Sept. 11th terrorist attack has had on the Nifty spot-futures relation.The study concludes that post the Sept. 11th attack, the relation between Futures Trading Activity and Spot volatility has strengthened, implying that the market has become more efficient in assimilating the information into its prices. This is evident in both volume and open interest (expected and activity shock) being significant post Sept. 11 while not being significant pre Sept. 11.


Futures Trading Impact on Stock Market Volatility and Hedging Efficiency

Futures Trading Impact on Stock Market Volatility and Hedging Efficiency
Author: Chandra Bhola
Publisher: Ary Publisher
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-06-10
Genre:
ISBN: 9788798623045

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This study investigates the impact of futures trading on stock market volatility and hedging efficiency, focusing on the S&P CNX Nifty index and select stocks in India. By conducting a comprehensive analysis, this research aims to examine the relationship between futures trading activity and its influence on market volatility and the effectiveness of hedging strategies. The study utilizes empirical methods to evaluate the effects of futures trading on stock market volatility. It analyzes the S&P CNX Nifty index, which represents the broader market, and specific individual stocks to understand how futures trading impacts price fluctuations and overall market stability. Furthermore, the research assesses the hedging efficiency of futures contracts as risk management tools. It examines whether investors can effectively hedge their positions and reduce portfolio risk through futures trading. By evaluating the effectiveness of hedging strategies in the context of the Indian stock market, this study provides valuable insights for market participants. Overall, this study delves into the impact of futures trading on stock market volatility and hedging efficiency in India. By examining the S&P CNX Nifty index and select stocks, it aims to shed light on the relationship between futures trading and market dynamics. The findings contribute to the understanding of risk management practices and assist investors in making informed decisions related to hedging strategies in the Indian stock market.


Futures Market - Determinants of Indian Futures Market

Futures Market - Determinants of Indian Futures Market
Author: Babu Jose
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 132
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN: 9783659326042

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Futures Market movement always depends on the fluctuation of the spot market. Elements of the futures market such as Open Interest, Trade volume, Volatility of futures return and Turn over are having direct link with futures return. Underlying Market return is the major influencing factor of the futures market, but the uncertain events of the futures market can be explained by observing the different relation ships of variables in the futures market.Market Depth, Market Volatility and market Trends are having causal relationship with futures return. Market responses and reflections are explained by the study with the help of econometric models like VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeniety test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition.Indian stock and derivative markets are so speculative and volatile, the prediction of the movement is very difficult. Daily return series of S&P CNX Nifty and its underlying index from 2000 to 2010 are taken for the analysis. The whole study period is divided in to five stages as per the market movement and structural break of the data series. The empirical results of the study reveals the determinants of the futures market in India.


Determinants of Futures Market in India

Determinants of Futures Market in India
Author: Babu Jose
Publisher:
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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In India, spot market return, number of contract, turnover and volatility of the futures market are having short run relationship with futures market return. On the basis of the empirical analysis it is clearly found that spot market is the key factor which predicts the movement of futures market and the trader can depend upon volatility and trading volume to take any decision on futures market trading. In precise, spot market return, volatility of the futures market, turnover and number of contract are the determinants of futures market in India. Spot market return is the major determinants of futures market, indeed variables from futures market itself like open interest and turnover of futures market can be taken in to consideration for determining the futures market return. The empirical study is made with spot return, futures return, volatility of futures return, number of contract, trading volume and open interest of S&P CNX Nifty and its underlying index Nifty-50 for the period 12th June 2000- 30th June 2011 by applying the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogenity Test.


ABCD Of F & O

ABCD Of F & O
Author: Ashok Nahar
Publisher: Ashok Nahar
Total Pages: 134
Release: 2019-06-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Inside This book is targeted for those readers who wish to trade in stock market in India and by this means wish to earn reasonable profits. Specialization in options trading can definitely help you get decent earnings. Basic Education About Derivatives, Futures & Options Option Trading Strategies It’s easy to make profits from the Option trading. Only you need to have your basics clear. Unless you do..You will be wasting your time and losing money. One need to be crystal clear view of your own Stock for Trading Futures & Options. In This Book we have simplified all the basic knowledge needed to be a smart Trader, even though you don’t have much knowledge earlier.. Thanks and regards …… Ashok Nahar