From Decision Making Under Uncertainty to Game Theory
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 36 |
Release | : 1987 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 36 |
Release | : 1987 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Tapan Biswas |
Publisher | : Palgrave Macmillan |
Total Pages | : 215 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780312175771 |
This book systematically develops essential concepts in the economics of uncertainty and game theory. It also presents new ideas for further research. The first part deals with the economics of uncertainty, including a discussion of expected utility theory and non-expected utility theories, insurance market, portfolio analysis, principal-agent theory, as well as ethical issues presented in the context of choice under uncertainty. The second part develops an understanding of game theory as a tool for analysing the interactive decision-making process.
Author | : Itzhak Gilboa |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 216 |
Release | : 2009-03-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 052151732X |
This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.
Author | : Mykel J. Kochenderfer |
Publisher | : MIT Press |
Total Pages | : 350 |
Release | : 2015-07-24 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 0262331713 |
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author | : Mohammed Abdellaoui |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 245 |
Release | : 2008-08-29 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3540684360 |
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Author | : Michel Grabisch |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 482 |
Release | : 2016-06-15 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 3319306901 |
The book provides a thorough treatment of set functions, games and capacities as well as integrals with respect to capacities and games, in a mathematical rigorous presentation and in view of application to decision making. After a short chapter introducing some required basic knowledge (linear programming, polyhedra, ordered sets) and notation, the first part of the book consists of three long chapters developing the mathematical aspects. This part is not related to a particular application field and, by its neutral mathematical style, is useful to the widest audience. It gathers many results and notions which are scattered in the literature of various domains (game theory, decision, combinatorial optimization and operations research). The second part consists of three chapters, applying the previous notions in decision making and modelling: decision under uncertainty, decision with multiple criteria, possibility theory and Dempster-Shafer theory.
Author | : Donald J. Brown |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 88 |
Release | : 2020-12-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3030595129 |
This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.
Author | : John Blizard |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 144 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : Decision making |
ISBN | : 9780957893153 |
Using a multiple risk types, subjective probability methodology to aid interactive decision making under uncertainty in some non constant sum, non cooperative, repeated operational games scenarios.
Author | : Luigi Luini |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 360 |
Release | : 2012-12-06 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1461550831 |
Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.
Author | : Anthony Kelly |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 228 |
Release | : 2003-03-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781139438131 |
Game theory is a key element in most decision-making processes involving two or more people or organisations. This book explains how game theory can predict the outcome of complex decision-making processes, and how it can help you to improve your own negotiation and decision-making skills. It is grounded in well-established theory, yet the wide-ranging international examples used to illustrate its application offer a fresh approach to an essential weapon in the armoury of the informed manager. The book is accessibly written, explaining in simple terms the underlying mathematics behind games of skill, before moving on to more sophisticated topics such as zero-sum games, mixed-motive games, and multi-person games, coalitions and power. Clear examples and helpful diagrams are used throughout, and the mathematics is kept to a minimum. It is written for managers, students and decision makers in any field.