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Forecasting the Realized Variance in the Presence of Intraday Periodicity

Forecasting the Realized Variance in the Presence of Intraday Periodicity
Author: Ana-Maria H. Dumitru
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper examines the impact of intraday periodicity on forecasting realized volatility using a heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) framework. We show that periodicity inflates the variance of the realized volatility and biases jump estimators. This combined effect adversely affects forecasting. To account for this, we propose a periodicity-adjusted model, HARP, where predictors are built from the periodicity-filtered data. We demonstrate empirically (using 30 stocks from various business sectors and the SPY for the period 2000--2016) and via Monte Carlo simulations that the HARP models produce significantly better forecasts, especially at the 1-day and 5-days ahead horizons.


Forecasting Volatility with the Realized Range in the Presence of Noise and Non-Trading

Forecasting Volatility with the Realized Range in the Presence of Noise and Non-Trading
Author: Karim Bannouh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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We introduce a heuristic bias-adjustment for the transaction price-based realized range estimator of daily volatility in the presence of bid-ask bounce and non-trading. The adjustment is an extension of the estimator proposed in Christensen et al. (2009). We relax the assumption that all intra-day high (low) transaction prices are at the ask (bid) quote. Using data-based simulations we obtain estimates of the probability that a given intraday range is (upward or downward) biased or not, which we use for a more refined bias-adjustment of the realized range estimator. Both Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application involving a liquid and a relatively illiquid S&P500 constituent demonstrate that ex post measures and ex ante forecasts based on the heuristically adjusted realized range compare favorably to existing bias-adjusted (two time scales) realized range and (two time scales) realized variance estimators.


Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications
Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 566
Release: 2012-03-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118272056

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A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.


The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
Total Pages: 732
Release: 2011-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195398645

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Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.


Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data

Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data
Author: Stavros Degiannakis
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 411
Release: 2016-04-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137396490

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The global financial crisis has reopened discussion surrounding the use of appropriate theoretical financial frameworks to reflect the current economic climate. There is a need for more sophisticated analytical concepts which take into account current quantitative changes and unprecedented turbulence in the financial markets. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the quantitative analysis of high frequency financial data in the light of current events and contemporary issues, using the latest empirical research and theory. It highlights and explains the shortcomings of theoretical frameworks and provides an explanation of high-frequency theory, emphasising ways in which to critically apply this knowledge within a financial context. Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data combines traditional and updated theories and applies them to real-world financial market situations. It will be a valuable and accessible resource for anyone wishing to understand quantitative analysis and modelling in current financial markets.


Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks

Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks
Author: Holger Kömm
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 188
Release: 2016-02-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3658125969

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This thesis presents a new strategy that unites qualitative and quantitative mass data in form of text news and tick-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring system, using first, a sequence of competing estimators to compute the unobservable volatility; second, a new two-state Markov switching mixture model for autoregressive and zero-inflated time-series to identify structural breaks in a latent data generation process and third, a selection of competing pattern recognition algorithms to classify the potential information embedded in unexpected, but public observable text data in shock and nonshock information. The monitor is trained, tested, and evaluated on a two year survey on the prime standard assets listed in the indices DAX, MDAX, SDAX and TecDAX.


Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series

Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series
Author: Thomas B. Fomby
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 407
Release: 2006-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0762312742

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Talks about the time varying betas of the capital asset pricing model, analysis of predictive densities of nonlinear models of stock returns, modelling multivariate dynamic correlations, flexible seasonal time series models, estimation of long-memory time series models, application of the technique of boosting in volatility forecasting, and more.


FinTech as a Disruptive Technology for Financial Institutions

FinTech as a Disruptive Technology for Financial Institutions
Author: Rafay, Abdul
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2019-01-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1522578064

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Financial institutions are tasked with keeping businesses of all sizes financially sounds while also providing accessible banking options to everyday individuals. Fintech, or financial technology, is an emerging disruptive technology in financial transaction that will change banking behavior for stakeholders and enable better traceability of funds against specific assets. FinTech as a Disruptive Technology for Financial Institutions is an essential reference source that discusses applications of FinTech in financial institutions in small, medium, and large businesses and through cultural and religious filters. Featuring research on topics such as machine learning, market development, crypto-currency, financial security, blockchain, and financial technology, this book is ideally designed for bankers, business managers, economists, computer scientists, academicians, researchers, financial professionals, and students.