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Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport

Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport
Author: Lourdes Trujillo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2000
Genre: Demand (Economic theory)
ISBN:
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This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation.

Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport

Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport
Author: Lourdes Trujillo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2004
Genre:
ISBN:
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This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation. Forecasting has long been a challenge and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology and software should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments and regulators avoid good demand modeling out of lack of conviction that theory and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $100-200 million, a cost of $100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees or insurance with their forecasts to cover significant gaps between forecasts and reality. This paper - a product of the Governance, Regulation, and Finance Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation.

Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting

Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting
Author: Luis G. Willumsen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 215
Release: 2014-07-26
Genre: Transportation
ISBN: 9780992843304
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Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.

The Economics of Urban Transportation

The Economics of Urban Transportation
Author: Kenneth A. Small
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 293
Release: 2007-10-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134495714
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This timely new edition of Kenneth A. Small’s seminal textbook Urban Transportation Economics, co-authored with Erik T. Verhoef, has been fully updated, covering new areas such as parking policies, reliability of travel times, and the privatization of transportation services, as well as updated treatments of congestion modelling, environmental costs, and transit subsidies. Rigorous in approach and making use of real-world data and econometric techniques, it contains case studies from a range of countries including congestion charging in Norway, Singapore and the UK, light rail in the Netherlands and freeway tolls in the US. Small and Verhoef cover all basic topics needed for any application of economics to transportation: forecasting the demand for transportation services under alternative policies measuring all the costs including those incurred by users setting prices under practical constraints choosing and evaluating investments in basic facilities designing ways in which the private and public sectors interact to provide services. This book will be of great interest to students with basic calculus and some knowledge of economic theory who are engaged with transportation economics, planning and, or engineering, travel demand analysis, and many related fields. It will also be essential reading for researchers in any aspect of urban transportation.

Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement

Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement
Author: Keith M. Chase
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Total Pages: 90
Release: 2013
Genre: Transportation
ISBN: 0309129427
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" TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C20-RR-1: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement documents the state of the practice for freight demand modeling. The report also explores the fundamental changes in freight modeling, and data and data collection that could help public and private sector decision-makers make better and more informed decisions. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20, which produced Report S2-C20-RR-1, also produced the following items: A Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan, which outlines seven strategic objectives that are designed to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight travel demand forecasting and data, and to guide both near- and long-term implementation: A speaker's kit, which is intended to be a "starter" set of materials for use in presenting the freight modeling and data improvement strategic plan to a group of interested professionals; and; A 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium " -- publisher's description

Public Private Partnerships Renegotiations in Transportation

Public Private Partnerships Renegotiations in Transportation
Author: Carlos Oliveira Cruz
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2022-05-13
Genre: Law
ISBN: 3030985113
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There is a growing interest in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), particularly in infrastructure and public services. Under the scope of PPPs, renegotiations are becoming more relevant, as empirical evidence suggests that most PPP projects are inevitably renegotiated, i.e., the original contract needs to be adapted to new and unforeseen circumstances. Renegotiations have a substantial impact on the contract and performance of a PPP and usually represent significant costs for users and taxpayers. However, very little is known about the management and, mainly, the process of renegotiating that will, very likely, occur. This book provides a set of case-studies of PPP renegotiations in the transport sector. The authors illustrate the Portuguese experience, a country that has been using PPP extensively, particularly in transport. The case studies provide an extensive and detailed analysis on each aspect of the project and the renegotiation. What drives renegotiations? Why are some projects more renegotiated than others? What are the results? How can the performance of renegotiation processes be improved? These and other questions provide the basis for the discussions in this book. The novelty and value of the book come mainly from the extent of information available. Each case-study deals with these questions in much more detail than what is common in the case-studies approach.

Modeling of Transport Demand

Modeling of Transport Demand
Author: V.A Profillidis
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2018-10-23
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0128115149
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Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding Covers analysis for all modes of transportation Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results

A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand

A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand
Author: National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Total Pages: 176
Release: 1997
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780309060592
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Going Private

Going Private
Author: Jose Gomez-Ibanez
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 325
Release: 2011-10-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815715706
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In the last decade many countries turned to private sources to provide services formerly offered by public agencies. Europeans, particularly the British and the French, were leaders in this movement. Developing countries also experimented extensively with privatization in the 1980s, with varying degrees of success. Because governments around the world are heavily involved in transportation, it is a natural focus of privatization experiments and in many ways has been at the cutting edge. Going Private examines the diverse privatization experiences of transportation services and facilities. Cases are drawn from the United States, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Since almost every country has experimented to some degree with highway and bus privatization, the authors focus particularly on these services, although they also discuss urban rail transit and airports. Highways and buses, they explain, encompass all three of the most common and basic forms of privatization: the sale of an existing state-owned enterprise; use of private, rather than public, financing and management for new infrastructure development; and contracting out to private vendors public services previously provided by government employees. After thoroughly examining these services and discussing the motives for, and objections to, privatization, the authors look at the prospects for privatization in other sectors and industries. They assess those circumstances in which privatization is most likely to succeed and those in which it is most likely to fail, for political as well as economic reasons. The authors conclude that privatization involves many political and social as well as economic dimensions. Privatization is usually not simply a matter of efficiency improvements or capital augmentation but also involves such deeply imbedded societal concerns as equity, income transfers, environmental problems, and attitudes toward taxation and the role of government.