Forecasting International Migration PDF Download
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Author | : Jakub Bijak |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 318 |
Release | : 2010-10-23 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9048188970 |
Download Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author | : Jakub Bijak |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 318 |
Release | : 2010-10-23 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9048188970 |
Download Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author | : matteo villa |
Publisher | : Ledizioni |
Total Pages | : 106 |
Release | : 2020-05-14 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 8855262025 |
Download The Future of Migration to Europe Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
Author | : Jakub Bijak |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 316 |
Release | : 2010-11-30 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9789048188987 |
Download Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author | : National Research Council |
Publisher | : National Academies Press |
Total Pages | : 369 |
Release | : 2000-10-11 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 0309069904 |
Download Beyond Six Billion Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author | : Jakub Bijak |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 56 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9788360462034 |
Download Forecasting international migration Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Jakub Bijak |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 27 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9788392191551 |
Download Bayesian methods in international migration forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : James Raymer |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 404 |
Release | : 2008-04-15 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0470985542 |
Download International Migration in Europe Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
Author | : United Nations |
Publisher | : United Nations |
Total Pages | : 492 |
Release | : 2019-11-27 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 9290687894 |
Download World Migration Report 2020 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since 2000, IOM has been producing world migration reports. The World Migration Report 2020, the tenth in the world migration report series, has been produced to contribute to increased understanding of migration throughout the world. This new edition presents key data and information on migration as well as thematic chapters on highly topical migration issues, and is structured to focus on two key contributions for readers: Part I: key information on migration and migrants (including migration-related statistics); and Part II: balanced, evidence-based analysis of complex and emerging migration issues.
Author | : Corrado Bonifazi |
Publisher | : Amsterdam University Press |
Total Pages | : 346 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 9053568948 |
Download International Migration in Europe Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
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