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| Author | : Michael Clements |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 402 |
| Release | : 1998-10-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780521634809 |
Download Forecasting Economic Time Series Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
| Author | : C. W. J. Granger |
| Publisher | : Academic Press |
| Total Pages | : 353 |
| Release | : 2014-05-10 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1483273245 |
Download Forecasting Economic Time Series Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.
| Author | : Michael P. Clements |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 398 |
| Release | : 1999 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780262531894 |
Download Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
| Author | : Clive William John Granger |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 428 |
| Release | : 1977 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Forecasting Economic Time Series Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book has been updated to reflect developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice, particularly as applied to economics. The second edition pays attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts.
| Author | : Philip Hans Franses |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 421 |
| Release | : 2014-04-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1139952129 |
Download Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
| Author | : Eric Ghysels |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 617 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : Economic forecasting |
| ISBN | : 0190622016 |
Download Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.
| Author | : Graham Elliott |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 667 |
| Release | : 2013-08-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0444627405 |
Download Handbook of Economic Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
| Author | : Rob J Hyndman |
| Publisher | : OTexts |
| Total Pages | : 380 |
| Release | : 2018-05-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0987507117 |
Download Forecasting: principles and practice Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
| Author | : Tomas Cipra |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 409 |
| Release | : 2020-08-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030463478 |
Download Time Series in Economics and Finance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book presents the principles and methods for the practical analysis and prediction of economic and financial time series. It covers decomposition methods, autocorrelation methods for univariate time series, volatility and duration modeling for financial time series, and multivariate time series methods, such as cointegration and recursive state space modeling. It also includes numerous practical examples to demonstrate the theory using real-world data, as well as exercises at the end of each chapter to aid understanding. This book serves as a reference text for researchers, students and practitioners interested in time series, and can also be used for university courses on econometrics or computational finance.
| Author | : Klaus Neusser |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 421 |
| Release | : 2016-06-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 331932862X |
Download Time Series Econometrics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This text presents modern developments in time series analysis and focuses on their application to economic problems. The book first introduces the fundamental concept of a stationary time series and the basic properties of covariance, investigating the structure and estimation of autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models and their relations to the covariance structure. The book then moves on to non-stationary time series, highlighting its consequences for modeling and forecasting and presenting standard statistical tests and regressions. Next, the text discusses volatility models and their applications in the analysis of financial market data, focusing on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models. The second part of the text devoted to multivariate processes, such as vector autoregressive (VAR) models and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models, which have become the main tools in empirical macroeconomics. The text concludes with a discussion of co-integrated models and the Kalman Filter, which is being used with increasing frequency. Mathematically rigorous, yet application-oriented, this self-contained text will help students develop a deeper understanding of theory and better command of the models that are vital to the field. Assuming a basic knowledge of statistics and/or econometrics, this text is best suited for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students.
