Forecasting Device Effectiveness PDF Download

Army training developers need tools to aid in the design, acquisition, and use of simulation- and computer-based programs of instruction for weapon operation and maintenance. One critical need is a job aid for the design and evaluation of training devices during all stages in the weapon acquisition cycle. This series of three reports describes one approach to such aiding--a hybrid of decision analysis and mathematical modeling. The approach provides numerical estimates of device effectiveness which are based on expert ratings of trainee and task characteristics, functional and physical similarity between the proposed device and the operational equipment, and the instructional characteristics of the device. It is an analytic, computer-based technique--a menu-driven system--which can be used at any stage of training device design. This report describes an analytic training Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique known as DEFT. DEFT accounts for device in terms of several different criteria and classes of independent predictor variables. In its present form, DEFT is a series of interactive, menu-driven computer programs that provide for three levels of device evaluation. The level of analysis is chosen as function of the type of input data that are available and the degree of diagnositicity that is needed. The report includes a DEFT User's Manual and listings of DEFT programs. Additional keywords: acquisition of skills; transfer of training; COBOL programming language.