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Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author: Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2022-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Adoption of fiscal rules and fiscal councils continued to increase globally over the last decades based on two new global datasets. During the pandemic, fiscal frameworks were put to test. The widespread use of escape clauses was one of the novelties in this crisis, which helped provide policy room to respond to the health crisis. But the unprecedented fiscal actions have led to large and widespread deviations from deficit and debt limits. The evidence shows that fiscal rules, in general, have been flexible during crises but have not prevented a large and persistent buildup of debt over time. Experience shows that deviations from debt limits are very difficult to reverse. The paper also presents evidence on the benefits of a good track record in abiding by the rules. All these highlight the difficult policy choices ahead and need to further improve rules-based fiscal frameworks.

Fiscal Councils

Fiscal Councils
Author: Mr.Roel M. W. J. Beetsma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2016-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484322908
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The paper discusses the effectiveness of independent fiscal institutions—or fiscal councils—in taming the deficit bias that emerged in the 1970s. After a review of the main theoretical arguments and recent trends about fiscal councils, we develop a stylized model showing how a fiscal council can effectively mitigate the deficit bias even though it has no direct lever on the conduct of fiscal policy. We show that the capacity of the fiscal council to improve the public’s understanding of the quality of fiscal policy contributes to better align voters and policymakers’ incentives and to tame the deficit bias affecting well-intended governments. After mapping the model’s key features into a broad set of criteria likely to contribute to the effectiveness of a fiscal council, we use the 2014 vintage of the IMF dataset on independent fiscal institutions to assess whether existing institutions have been built to work.

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis

Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis
Author: Ms.Andrea Schaechter
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2012-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505353
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Strengthening fiscal frameworks, in particular fiscal rules, has emerged as a key response to the fiscal legacy of the crisis. This paper takes stock of fiscal rules in use around the world, compiles a dataset - covering national and supranational fiscal rules, in 81 countries from 1985 to end-March 2012 - and presents details about the rules’ key design elements, particularly in support of enforcement. This information is summarized in a set of fiscal rules indices. Three key findings emerge: (i) many new fiscal rules have been adopted and existing ones strengthened in response to the crisis; (ii) the number of fiscal rules and the comprehensiveness of the design features in emerging economies has caught up to those in advanced economies; and (iii) the "next-generation" fiscal rules are increasingly complex as they combine the objectives of sustainability and with the need for flexibility in response to shocks, thereby creating new challenges for implementation, communication, and monitoring.

Independent Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance

Independent Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance
Author: Mr.Roel M. W. J. Beetsma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2018-03-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484348281
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Countries increasingly rely on independent fiscal councils to constrain policymakers’ discretion and curb the bias towards excessive deficits and pro-cyclical policies. Since fiscal councils are often recent and heterogeneous across countries, assessing their impact is challenging. Using the latest (2016) vintage of the IMF Fiscal Council Dataset, we focus on two tasks expected to strengthen fiscal performance: the preparation or assessment of forecasts, and the monitoring of compliance with fiscal rules. Tentative econometric evidence suggests that the presence of a fiscal council is associated with more accurate and less optimistic fiscal forecasts, as well as greater compliance with fiscal rules.

Fiscal Politics

Fiscal Politics
Author: Vitor Gaspar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 548
Release: 2017-04-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475547900
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Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy
Author: Francesca G Caselli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2019-03-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498300863
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This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.

The Return to Fiscal Rules

The Return to Fiscal Rules
Author: Francesca Caselli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2022-10-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Governments face difficult policy trade-offs with record debt levels, tightening monetary policies, and urgent demands, including food and energy crises, the climate agenda, and population aging. Governments need to communicate fiscal plans to reduce debt sustainability risks and promote consistent macroeconomic policies. Many envisage a return to fiscal rules that had been suspended during the pandemic to strengthen credibility. This situation offers an opportunity to rethink fiscal rules and determine how governments can make fiscal policy more agile, including in responding to crises, without undermining fiscal sustainability. A risk-based medium-term fiscal framework that combines standards, rules, and strengthened institutions would strike a better balance between flexibility and credibility.

Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973
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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Fiscal Policy in a Turbulent Era

Fiscal Policy in a Turbulent Era
Author: Enrique Alberola
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 253
Release: 2024-02-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1035300567
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Recognising the regained importance of fiscal policy over the last two decades, this timely book provides much-needed insight into the changing practice of fiscal policy and how it is adapting to the unpredictable nature of the 21st century. Expert academic and practitioner contributors consider the resources which underpin current fiscal policy, assessing its overall effectiveness before outlining the changing priorities –ageing, inequality, climate change- and the financial tools available, and considering the future of fiscal policy in uncertain times.

Global Public Goods and Sustainable Development in the Practice of International Organizations

Global Public Goods and Sustainable Development in the Practice of International Organizations
Author:
Publisher: BRILL
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2023-11-07
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9004687262
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This volume examines in an innovative and applied perspective the interdependence between the role of international organizations, the existence of global public goods and the need of sustainable development. Moreover, it is set within the context of current challenges in today’s world of dramatic transition and clearly responds to the need for filling the existing research gap in this area. It also demonstrates excellent knowledge of primary resources and a very good mastery of the various concepts and policy issues. Moreover, it offers an important added value to the theory, research and recent publications of the concerned broad study field. Contributors are: Aleksandra Borowicz, Leiza Brumat, Diego Caballero Vélez, Giuseppe T. Cirella, Rasa Daugėlienė, Agnieszka Domańska, Małgorzata Dziembała, Lenka Fojtíková, Katja Zajc Kejžar, Agnieszka Kłos, Ewa Kosycarz, Anatoliy Kruglashov, Andrzej Latoszek, Ewa Latoszek, Mirella Mărcuț, Willem Molle, Ewa Osuch-Rak, Marta Pachocka, Nina Ponikvar, Magdalena Proczek, Angela Maria Romito, Piotr Stolarczyk, Aleksandra Szczerba, and Anna Wójtowicz