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Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications

Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications
Author: Giovanni Borraccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2023-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.


International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 298
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.


Czech Republic

Czech Republic
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2024-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Czech Republic: Selected Issues


Israel

Israel
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 90
Release: 2023-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Following a remarkable recovery from the pandemic anchored in strong fundamentals, the outlook is for growth to slow broadly in line with potential, as inflation falls within the targeted range by end-2024. However, the risk balance is tilted to the downside, reflecting, among other things, external risks and the continued uncertainty around the proposed judicial reform.


Finland

Finland
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2024-03-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Recent developments and outlook. Weak household income growth, falling house prices, higher interest rates, and stagnation in Europe has caused activity to stall in Finland, with a contraction of 0.5 percent estimated in 2023. Labor markets have shown resilience, but unemployment is expected to increase somewhat in coming months, especially from the construction sector. However, inflation has fallen to more normal levels and financial conditions appear to be easing, paving the way for a modest recovery this year, strengthening further in 2025.


Republic of Slovenia

Republic of Slovenia
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2024-05-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Slovenia has weathered the pandemic and the energy price shocks well, but long-term challenges remain. Ageing of Slovenia’s population is a challenge, and private investment has softened over the past decade. The 2023 floods caused significant damage.


Cyprus

Cyprus
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 79
Release: 2024-05-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Growth moderated in 2023 with slowing consumption growth, lower services exports to Russia, and fading post-pandemic base effects. But growth has remained above the euro area (EA) average, supported by a continued recovery in tourism, expanding financial services and ICT activity, and strong investments. The labor markets are tight, with unemployment at a near two-decade low. Headline inflation dipped below 2 percent, but core inflation has been more persistent. Growth is expected to stabilize in 2024 and rise to 3 percent in the medium term.


Switzerland

Switzerland
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2024-06-24
Genre:
ISBN:

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Switzerland: Selected Issues


Kingdom of the Netherlands–The Netherlands

Kingdom of the Netherlands–The Netherlands
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2024-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The Netherlands FSAP focused on three cross-cutting themes—housing, non-banks, and climate risks—while carrying out a comprehensive review of financial sector oversight. The FSAP reviewed the resilience of the Dutch financial system against a set of conjunctural and structural challenges to the economy: the conjunctural challenges included slowing economic growth amid tighter financial conditions, elevated housing prices, large and interconnected nonbanks with major pension reforms underway, and the shift in securities markets trading from London to Amsterdam since Brexit, which raised Amsterdam to systemic importance for the euro area (EA); and the structural challenges focused on climate issues, including climate physical risks associated with roughly a quarter of the country being below sea level, and nature-related transition risks from an uncertain policy path to bring down nitrogen depositions to contain biodiversity loss and comply with European Union (EU) Directives.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.