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| Author | : Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2023 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mr.Maxym Kryshko |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 51 |
| Release | : 2011-09-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1463903499 |
Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common unobserved factors. Similarly, the dynamics in DSGE models are often governed by a handful of state variables and exogenous processes such as preference and/or technology shocks. Boivin and Giannoni(2006) combine a DSGE and a factor model into a data-rich DSGE model, in which DSGE states are factors and factor dynamics are subject to DSGE model implied restrictions. We compare a data-richDSGE model with a standard New Keynesian core to an empirical dynamic factor model by estimating both on a rich panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data compiled by Stock and Watson (2008).We find that the spaces spanned by the empirical factors and by the data-rich DSGE model states are very close. This proximity allows us to propagate monetary policy and technology innovations in an otherwise non-structural dynamic factor model to obtain predictions for many more series than just a handful of traditional macro variables, including measures of real activity, price indices, labor market indicators, interest rate spreads, money and credit stocks, and exchange rates.
| Author | : Abdol S. Soofi |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 496 |
| Release | : 2012-12-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1461509319 |
Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data brings together a coherent and accessible set of chapters on recent research results on this topic. To make such methods readily useful in practice, the contributors to this volume have agreed to make available to readers upon request all computer programs used to implement the methods discussed in their respective chapters. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data is a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students studying complex systems in finance, biology, and physics, as well as those applying such methods to nonlinear time series analysis and signal processing.
| Author | : Anna Petronevich |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This thesis is dedicated to the study of a particular class of non-linear Dynamic Factor Models, the Dynamic Factor Models with Markov Switching (MS-DFM). Combining the features of the Dynamic Factor model and the Markov Switching model, i.e. the ability to aggregate massive amounts of information and to track recurring processes, this framework has proved to be a very useful and convenient instrument in many applications, the most important of them being the analysis of business cycles.In order to monitor the health of an economy and to evaluate policy results, the knowledge of the currentstate of the business cycle is essential. However, it is not easy to determine since there is no commonly accepted dataset and method to identify turning points, and the official institutions announce a newturning point, in countries where such practice exists, with a structural delay of several months. The MS-DFM is able to resolve these issues by providing estimates of the current state of the economy in a timely, transparent and replicable manner on the basis of the common component of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the real sector. The thesis contributes to the vast literature in this area in three directions. In Chapter 3, I compare the two popular estimation techniques of the MS-DFM, the one-step and the two-step methods, and apply them to the French data to obtain the business cycle turning point chronology. In Chapter 4, on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, I study the consistency of the estimators of the preferred technique -the two-step estimation method, and analyze their behavior in small samples. In Chapter 5, I extend the MS-DFM and suggest the Dynamical Influence MS-DFM, which allows to evaluate the contribution of the financial sector to the dynamics of the business cycle and vice versa, taking into consideration that the interaction between them can be dynamic.
| Author | : Siem Jan Koopman |
| Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 685 |
| Release | : 2016-01-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1785603523 |
This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
| Author | : Gilles Dufrénot |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 387 |
| Release | : 2020-11-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3030542521 |
The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
| Author | : Ziyi Guo |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 126 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Roberto Dieci |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 384 |
| Release | : 2014-07-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319074709 |
This book reflects the state of the art on nonlinear economic dynamics, financial market modelling and quantitative finance. It contains eighteen papers with topics ranging from disequilibrium macroeconomics, monetary dynamics, monopoly, financial market and limit order market models with boundedly rational heterogeneous agents to estimation, time series modelling and empirical analysis and from risk management of interest-rate products, futures price volatility and American option pricing with stochastic volatility to evaluation of risk and derivatives of electricity market. The book illustrates some of the most recent research tools in these areas and will be of interest to economists working in economic dynamics and financial market modelling, to mathematicians who are interested in applying complexity theory to economics and finance and to market practitioners and researchers in quantitative finance interested in limit order, futures and electricity market modelling, derivative pricing and risk management.
| Author | : Christiaan Heij |
| Publisher | : Wiley |
| Total Pages | : 408 |
| Release | : 1997-12-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models Edited by Christiaan Heij, Hans Schumacher, Bernard Hanzon and Kees Praagman System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models discusses different approaches for dynamic modelling of economic and financial data, and includes empirical applications, particularly in finance and macroeconomics, to illustrate the methods discussed. Written by leading experts from a wide range of backgrounds, varying from econometries and finance to systems and control, each chapter is followed by a comments section that presents alternative and sometimes contrasting points of view. The authors look at the interface between economics and finance, and examine topics including non-linear dynamics chaos structural change trends and cointegration general methodologies in empirical modelling
| Author | : Lucas Bernard |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 332 |
| Release | : 2016-10-03 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319398873 |
This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.
