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Financial and Business Cycles: Shall We Dance?

Financial and Business Cycles: Shall We Dance?
Author: Gregorio Impavido
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2024-08-23
Genre:
ISBN:
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This paper examines the role of financial cycle proxies in refining available estimates of the business cycle in Kazakhstan. It contributes to the existing literature by introducing a formal test for the stability of the mean of exogenous variables in the estimation set up, and by developing a self-contained statistical package to streamline the whole estimation process. The empirical strategy is designed to be parsimonious, aiming to avoid the pitfalls associated with overly complex models while achieving comparable results. Results have implications for the extent with which the authorities should manage the business and financial cycles, with which policies, for macroprudential policy calibration, and for the usefulness for policymaking of endsample estimates of the cycle.

Business Cycles and Equilibrium

Business Cycles and Equilibrium
Author: Fischer Black
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2009-11-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470499176
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An updated look at what Fischer Black's ideas on business cycles and equilibrium mean today Throughout his career, Fischer Black described a view of business fluctuations based on the idea that a well-developed economy will be continually in equilibrium. In the essays that constitute this book, which is one of only two books Black ever wrote, he explores this idea thoroughly and reaches some surprising conclusions. With the newfound popularity of quantitative finance and risk management, the work of Fischer Black has garnered much attention. Business Cycles and Equilibrium-with its theory that economic and financial markets are in a continual equilibrium-is one of his books that still rings true today, given the current economic crisis. This Updated Edition clearly presents Black's classic theory on business cycles and the concept of equilibrium, and contains a new introduction by the person who knows Black best: Perry Mehrling, author of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance (Wiley). Mehrling goes inside Black's life to uncover what was occurring during the time Black wrote Business Cycles and Equilibrium, while also shedding light on what Black would make of today's financial and economic meltdown and how he would best advise to move forward. The essays within this book reach some interesting conclusions concerning the role of equilibrium in a developed economy Warns about the use and abuse of modeling Explains the risky business of risk in a straightforward and accessible style Contains chapters dedicated to "the effects of uncontrolled banking," "the trouble with econometric models," and "the effects of noise on investing" Includes commentary on Black's life and work at the time Business Cycles and Equilibrium was written as well as insight as to what Black would make of the current financial meltdown Engaging and informative, the Updated Edition of Business Cycles and Equilibrium will give you a better understanding of what is really going on during these uncertain and volatile financial times.

Dance of the Trillions

Dance of the Trillions
Author: David Lubin
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 161
Release: 2018-08-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815736754
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In Dance of the Trillions, David Lubin tells the story of what makes money flow from high-income countries to lower-income ones; what makes it flow out again; and how developing countries have sought protection against the volatility of international capital flows. The book traces an arc from the 1970s, when developing countries first gained access to international financial markets, to the present day. Underlying this story is a discussion of how the relationship between developing countries and global finance appears to be moving from one governed by the “Washington Consensus” to one more likely to be shaped by Beijing.

The Atlas of Economic Complexity

The Atlas of Economic Complexity
Author: Ricardo Hausmann
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 369
Release: 2014-01-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262317737
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Maps capture data expressing the economic complexity of countries from Albania to Zimbabwe, offering current economic measures and as well as a guide to achieving prosperity Why do some countries grow and others do not? The authors of The Atlas of Economic Complexity offer readers an explanation based on "Economic Complexity," a measure of a society's productive knowledge. Prosperous societies are those that have the knowledge to make a larger variety of more complex products. The Atlas of Economic Complexity attempts to measure the amount of productive knowledge countries hold and how they can move to accumulate more of it by making more complex products. Through the graphical representation of the "Product Space," the authors are able to identify each country's "adjacent possible," or potential new products, making it easier to find paths to economic diversification and growth. In addition, they argue that a country's economic complexity and its position in the product space are better predictors of economic growth than many other well-known development indicators, including measures of competitiveness, governance, finance, and schooling. Using innovative visualizations, the book locates each country in the product space, provides complexity and growth potential rankings for 128 countries, and offers individual country pages with detailed information about a country's current capabilities and its diversification options. The maps and visualizations included in the Atlas can be used to find more viable paths to greater productive knowledge and prosperity.

Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security ?

Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security ?
Author: National Defense University (U S )
Publisher: Government Printing Office
Total Pages: 132
Release: 2011-12-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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On August 24-25, 2010, the National Defense University held a conference titled “Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security?” to explore the economic element of national power. This special collection of selected papers from the conference represents the view of several keynote speakers and participants in six panel discussions. It explores the complexity surrounding this subject and examines the major elements that, interacting as a system, define the economic component of national security.

Business Cycle Economics

Business Cycle Economics
Author: Todd A. Knoop
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Total Pages: 348
Release: 2015-02-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Presents the empirical data of business cycles and the theories that economists have developed to explain and prevent them, and considers case studies of recessions and depressions in the United States and internationally. Despite more than two centuries of debate, a definitive explanation of the causes of economic cycles still does not exist. Economists, politicians, and policymakers have argued many well-known theories as to why these peaks and slumps occur, and cyclical recessions and depressions continue in spite of the enormous intellectual reserves working to prevent them. This timely analysis presents a comprehensive overview of global economics, assessing older theories alongside of new ways of thinking to reveal the empirical methods needed to evaluate, forecast, and prevent future crises. Educator and economist Todd Knoop provides explanations of influential macroeconomic theories that have shaped modern economics, such as Keynesian economics, Neoclassical economics, Austrian economics, and New Keynesian economics. In addition, he considers case studies of specific recessions and depressions, beginning with the Great Depression through the East Asian crisis and Great Recession in Japan and culminating with a detailed examination of the European debt crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. The work concludes with a look at the insights gained from these fiscal events as well as the major questions that still remain unanswered as a result of these crises.

Modelling Economic Capital

Modelling Economic Capital
Author: David Jamieson Bolder
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 841
Release: 2022-05-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030950964
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How might one determine if a financial institution is taking risk in a balanced and productive manner? A powerful tool to address this question is economic capital, which is a model-based measure of the amount of equity that an entity must hold to satisfactorily offset its risk-generating activities. This book, with a particular focus on the credit-risk dimension, pragmatically explores real-world economic-capital methodologies and applications. It begins with the thorny practical issues surrounding the construction of an (industrial-strength) credit-risk economic-capital model, defensibly determining its parameters, and ensuring its efficient implementation. It then broadens its gaze to examine various critical applications and extensions of economic capital; these include loan pricing, the computation of loan impairments, and stress testing. Along the way, typically working from first principles, various possible modelling choices and related concepts are examined. The end result is a useful reference for students and practitioners wishing to learn more about a centrally important financial-management device.

Business cycle theory as a basis for economic policy

Business cycle theory as a basis for economic policy
Author: Pascal Bridel
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 275
Release: 2017-10-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317381971
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This book aims to start a debate on the relationship between economic theory – and more precisely business cycle theory – and economic policy, emphasising the diversity of views on economic policy which characterised older periods, in contrast to the homogeneity of the analysis and diagnosis provided by current business cycles developments. Since the 1970s, economic theorists excluding any economic policy interventions and favouring strictly supply-side economic policies have gained a growing influence. The development of Equilibrium Business Cycles theories coincides with the collapse, at least in academic circles, of the Keynesian consensus favouring stabilization policies. The alternative approach which emerged was based on an a priori hypothesis about the stability of the economy – or at least on its remarkable ability to stabilize itself. The direct consequence of this approach is that any stabilization objective for economic policy is not only misguided but also inefficient. There are many reasons why Keynesian policies ceased to be dominant in theoretical circles, but the most helpful circumstances for the rapid propagation of a new revolutionary theory is certainly the existence of an established orthodoxy, clearly inconsistent with the most salient facts of reality. This book offers a sample of different theoretical approaches to business cycles, examining their respective views on economic policy with the objective of understanding business cycles that have been lost, and identifying those views which explain fluctuations and the way we conceive economic policy. This book was originally published as a special issue of The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought.

Bank Investing

Bank Investing
Author: Suhail Chandy
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2021-02-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 111972984X
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Bank Investing: A Practitioner's Field Guide offers you the essential toolkit to become a successful bank investor. It packages practical lessons, theoretical knowledge, and historical context, all into one compelling and hopefully entertaining book. The book includes conversations with investors and management teams. Investors include activists, financials specialists, credit investors, and multibillion-dollar asset managers. Management teams have a broad representation from the c-suite of a broad spectrum of participants ranging from a fintech to a bank with over $30bn in assets. Banks are the oil that lubricates the economy. An understanding of how they operate is essential for analyzing any part of the economy since banks represent a large investing universe and control a sizeable portion of assets. With over 800 public tickers representing over $3 trillion market cap, banks are larger than several other industry groups. Banks are the largest financial intermediaries in the U.S., controlling $15 trillion in financial assets. Their relative size can amplify effects. For example, a small regulatory or environmental change can cascade and ripple through financial markets and have a major impact on the economy. As fintechs gain in prominence, a fundamental grasp of topics related to banking will help enhance understanding of fintech. Bank investing can be a fruitful pursuit: The most successful investor of our times, Warren Buffett, has had a sizeable investment in banks over time (close to a third of his portfolio weight used to be in banks). Banks allow you to make macro-economic bets since they are highly levered to business cycles. Bank investing allows you to scale your knowledge, as they have relatively homogenized business models... ...at the same time, banks are diverse enough to drive meaningful dispersion in price performance. This divergence of performance can be taken advantage of by an astute and prepared securities analyst. Banks are good vehicles to make specific investment plays on geographic regions, demographic trends (suburban to urban migration, aging), industries (agriculture, tech, energy), news flow (trade/tariffs, weather), real estate subsectors (NYC office, bay area apartments), and investing themes such as ESG, cryptocurrency, and venture capital. Finally, fintech disruption is creating an investing opportunity to play the digital divide between banks that embrace technology successfully and those that get left behind.