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Extreme News Events, Long-Memory Volatility, and Time Varying Risk Premia in Stock Market Returns

Extreme News Events, Long-Memory Volatility, and Time Varying Risk Premia in Stock Market Returns
Author: Wing H. Chan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper proposes a new class of GARCH-jump in mean models to test the presence of time varying risk premia associated with normal and extreme news events. The model allows for a dynamic jump component with autoregressive jump intensity, long-range dependence in volatility dynamics, and volatility in mean structure separately for normal and extreme news events. The results show significant jump risk premia in five stock market index returns. We also find that ignoring the long-memory feature in volatility dynamics leads to false rejection of time varying risk premia.


Macroeconomic News, Time-varying Risk Factors, and Time-varying Risk Premia

Macroeconomic News, Time-varying Risk Factors, and Time-varying Risk Premia
Author: Alexandre Vézina
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2001
Genre: Bond market
ISBN:

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The basic purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of time-varying risk premia for both the U.S. stock and bond markets. In addition, we look at the sources of time-varying conditional variance and conditional covariance of these two markets. Although a large literature has emerged on the return and volatility of any of the two markets, few studies propose a model in which both markets are modeled together. Moreover, after all the research done, the reasons explaining the causes of the volatility of any of the two markets remain unclear. What we propose in this paper is a model that considers both markets' volatility simultaneously. Our model captures the change in the risk premium, if any, to each market's own volatility risk as well as to the covariance risk for specific events. More specifically, we investigate if macroeconomic news is a source of time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether these results in time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks, as opposed to bonds, mainly exhibit a change in the risk premium on variance risk. The results suggest that most of the change is due to the PPI announcements. Our models also indicate that there is a change in the bond risk premium on covariance risk on macroeconomic news announcement dates. Finally, linear regressions show that employment reports and PPI releases are a source of time-varying conditional variance for stock, notes and bond returns.


Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets

Sources of Time Varying Risk and Risk Premia in U.S. Stock and Bond Markets
Author: Bala Arshanapalli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates the sources of time-varying risk and risk premia for both the U.S. stock and bond markets. Although a growing literature has emerged that examines the return and volatility characteristics of the U.S. stock and bond markets separately, little work has appeared that models these markets jointly. This paper proposes a model that provides evidence concerning the sources of time varying risk and risk premia in the markets that considers both markets simultaneously. The model captures the change in the risk premium to each market's own volatility risk as well as to the covariance risk for specific events. We test for the effects of macroeconomic news on time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether such news induces time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks, as opposed to bonds exhibit a change in the risk premium on variance risk on PPI announcement dates. There is also evidence of a change in the bond risk premium on covariance risk on macroeconomic news announcement dates. Employment reports and PPI releases appear as events inducing time-varying conditional variance for stock, Treasury Notes, as well as Treasury Bond returns. Finally, the results do not support the conjecture that conditional covariance of stock and bond returns falls on announcement days.


News Implied Volatility and Disaster Concerns

News Implied Volatility and Disaster Concerns
Author: Asaf Manela
Publisher:
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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We construct a text-based measure of uncertainty starting in 1890 using front-page articles of the Wall Street Journal. News implied volatility (NVIX) peaks during stock market crashes, times of policy-related uncertainty, world wars and financial crises. In US post-war data, periods when NVIX is high are followed by periods of above average stock returns, even after controlling for contemporaneous and forward-looking measures of stock market volatility. News coverage related to wars and government policy explains most of the time variation in risk premia our measure identifies. Over the longer 1890-2009 sample that includes the Great Depression and two world wars, high NVIX predicts high future returns in normal times, and rises just before transitions into economic disasters. The evidence is consistent with recent theories emphasizing time variation in rare disaster risk as a source of aggregate asset prices fluctuations.


Survey Forecasts and the Time-Varying Second Moments of Stock and Bond Returns

Survey Forecasts and the Time-Varying Second Moments of Stock and Bond Returns
Author: Pierluigi Balduzzi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 93
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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What are the economic determinants of the level and volatility of the second moments of stock and bond returns? We address this central question via the Campbell-Shiller (Campbell and Shiller, 1988) decomposition, with news constructed using survey forecasts. Risk premium news explains most of the unconditional second moments of returns and 86% of the pre- to post-1997 change in the stock-bond covariance. Also, the second moments of risk premium news explain most of the variance of the second moments of returns. In turn, the second moments of fundamental news explain large portions of the variance of the second moments of risk premium news.


Stock Market Volatility

Stock Market Volatility
Author: Greg N. Gregoriou
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 654
Release: 2009-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1420099558

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Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel


Volatility and Correlation

Volatility and Correlation
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 864
Release: 2005-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470091401

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In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School


Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications
Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 566
Release: 2012-03-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118272056

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A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.


Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets

Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets
Author: Wing-Keung Wong
Publisher: Mdpi AG
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2022-02-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9783036530802

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.


The Equity Risk Premium: A Contextual Literature Review

The Equity Risk Premium: A Contextual Literature Review
Author: Laurence B. Siegel
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2017-12-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1944960325

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Research into the equity risk premium, often considered the most important number in finance, falls into three broad groupings. First, researchers have measured the margin by which equity total returns have exceeded fixed-income or cash returns over long historical periods and have projected this measure of the equity risk premium into the future. Second, the dividend discount model—or a variant of it, such as an earnings discount model—is used to estimate the future return on an equity index, and the fixed-income or cash yield is then subtracted to arrive at an equity risk premium expectation or forecast. Third, academics have used macroeconomic techniques to estimate what premium investors might rationally require for taking the risk of equities. Current thinking emphasizes the second, or dividend discount, approach and projects an equity risk premium centered on 3½% to 4%.