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Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance

Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2006
Genre: International economic integration
ISBN:

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During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional "optimal currency area" criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries' performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of "sudden stop" episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of "current account reversal" episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb "sudden stops" and "current account reversals" shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.


Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance

Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional “optimal currency area” criteria. These include: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries' performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of “sudden stop” episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of “current account reversal” episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb “sudden stops” and “current account reversals” shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union does not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks are amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.


New Issues in Regional Monetary Coordination

New Issues in Regional Monetary Coordination
Author: Martina Metzger
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 248
Release: 2005-11-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 023050244X

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This book argues for a new conceptual framework that analytically distinguishes between North-South monetary co-ordination, which involves an international key currency, and South-South arrangements between economies all marked by external indebtedness and the resulting macroeconomic instabilities ('original sin'). In this light, the book analyzes different types of monetary co-ordination, ranging from ad hoc exchange rate policy agreements to projects of a common supranational currency, and it examines selected regional cases in Eastern Europe, North and South America, Africa and Asia.


Monetary Integration and Dollarization

Monetary Integration and Dollarization
Author: Matias Vernengo
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 319
Release: 2006-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1847200257

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This book brings together an impressive and diverse group of authors to discuss its central theme: whether or not the dollarized international monetary system is sustainable in the context of the global economy it helped create. In addition to its uniquely well-rounded and comprehensive coverage of the issues, this lively and highly readable volume provides an accurate assessment of the lack of consensus in the current debate. A must read for anyone interested in currency crises and the increasing vulnerability of the dollar. Jane D Arista, Director of Progams, Financial Markets Center, US This book deals with the economic consequences of monetary integration, which has long been dominated by the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) paradigm. In this model, money is perceived as having developed from a private sector cost minimization process to facilitate transactions. Not surprisingly, the book argues, the main advantage of monetary integration in the OCA context is the reduction of transaction costs, yet the validity of OCA to analyze processes of monetary integration seems to be limited at best. The contributors in this volume try to go beyond the OCA model and understand the political economy of monetary integration by comparing the European Monetary Union with the dollarization (formal and informal) process in Latin America. The contributors, many of whom are leading lights, reflect the disagreements and the changing views on the proper monetary arrangements in a globalized world and suggest that monetary integration and dollarization are not the solution for the great majority of countries around the world. Monetary Integration and Dollarization brings together mainstream and heterodox views of monetary integration and uses the European and North American experiences as a guide for the discussion of dollarization in developing countries. It will appeal to scholars, researchers and policy makers in the fields of financial and international economics.


Macroeconomic Analysis of Monetary Unions

Macroeconomic Analysis of Monetary Unions
Author: Oscar Bajo-Rubio
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2011-05-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642194451

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The book develops a general framework for the macroeconomic modeling of monetary unions. The starting point of the analysis is the standard two-country Mundell-Fleming model with perfect capital mobility, extended to incorporate the supply side in a context of rigid real wages, and modified so that the money market is common for two countries forming a monetary union. The model is presented in two versions: for a small and a large monetary union, respectively. After solving each model, the authors derive multipliers for monetary, expenditure, supply, and external shocks, both in the short and the long run; a graphical analysis is also provided. Special attention is paid to the crucial distinction between symmetric and asymmetric shocks.


Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia
Author: Daniel Leigh
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2009-03-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9781451872064

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This paper utilizes an open-economy New Keynesian overlapping generations model, the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), to assess the macroeconomic effects of external shocks and the impact of various monetary and fiscal policy responses. The simulations assess the effect of shocks to trade, world income, and risk premia for public debt. The results suggest that under Colombia’s inflation targeting regime, which incorporates exchange rate flexibility and a highly responsive monetary policy, the economy is well poised to adjust to different external shocks. They also suggest that the potential role of fiscal policy in responding to shocks depends critically on financing conditions.


The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses

The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses
Author: Mr.Pragyan Deb
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2021-01-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513566113

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Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use of policies, such as the monetary policy interest rate, foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential measures (MPMs), can mitigate the impact of these external shocks. It uses panel quantile regressions on a sample of 14 Asian advanced and emerging economies (AEs and EMs) to assess the impact of financial and real shocks on investment and GDP growth at the median and 5th percentile tail. It finds that external financial shocks tend to have a larger effect on Asian economies than real shocks, and that the main transmission channels through which shocks are propagated are capital flows (particularly via corporate and bank balance sheets) for EMs, and credit for AEs. It also finds evidence that for Asian EMs, FXI may help dampen the capital flows and real exchange rate channels and mitigate financial shocks in the short run, and monetary policy transmission tends to be relatively weak; meanwhile MPMs can help mitigate the credit channel for both AEs and EMs.


Emerging Economy Business Cycles

Emerging Economy Business Cycles
Author: Rudrani Bhattacharya
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2013-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356160

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This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.