Exchange Rates And Economic Growth In Kenya PDF Download

The study examines how monetary policy announcements affect the level and volatility of exchange rates in Kenya for the period 2005-2014. The exchange rates under study are: the KES/USD, KES/GBP, KES/EUR and KES/UGX. The study uses the GARCH (1, 1) and EGARCH taking into account monetary policy announcements using dummy variables to analyze the relationship between monetary policy announcements and exchange rates. We find evidence that the monetary policy announcements do not significantly influence the level of exchange rates except where the announcement directly involves the exchange rate. Only announcements regarding foreign exchange intervention significantly influenced exchange rate volatility as was the case in the period 2011-2012. The long run variance indicated lack of persistence of shocks on the exchange rate volatility which provides further evidence of the relative insignificance of monetary policy announcements on exchange rate volatility. We conclude that in Kenya, monetary policy announcements are merely secondary determinants of exchange rate volatility. The current study differs from previous studies that have focused the impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade and economic growth and the Central Bank of Kenya response to changes in inflation, exchange rate and GDP growth literature regarding the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a frontier market.