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Exchange Rate "Fundamentals" versus Speculation

Exchange Rate
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 1988-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451945973

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The exchange rate for the Lebanese pound experienced a protracted period of depreciation from end-1982 to November 1987, followed by a marked appreciation over the following six months. This paper investigates the competing hypotheses that the exchange rate over these two periods was driven by a speculative bubble versus “fundamental” economic variables. Reduced-form and time series models for the exchange rate are estimated and tested for nonstationarity. The results of these test suggest that the pound’s volatility in recent years was consistent with an excessive growth in domestic versus foreign currency denominated liquidity rather than speculation.


Speculation And The Dollar

Speculation And The Dollar
Author: Laurence Krause
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2019-07-11
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1000312895

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I began serious consideration of the issues and subject matter that comprise this book as a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. In need of a dissertation topic and vaguely curious about international monetary economics, I decided to sit in on Leonard Rapping's undergraduate course on international finance. Needless to say, I was soon hooked. Within several months I was teaching my own course on international money and beginning to write an outline of what would become my doctoral dissertation on foreign exchange speculation. Once completed the dissertation thesis became this basis for this book.


Exchange Rate "Fundamentals" Versus Speculation

Exchange Rate
Author: Christopher Towe
Publisher:
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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The exchange rate for the Lebanese pound experienced a protracted period of depreciation from end-1982 to November 1987, followed by a marked appreciation over the following six months. This paper investigates the competing hypotheses that the exchange rate over these two periods was driven by a speculative bubble versus quot;fundamentalquot; economic variables. Reduced-form and time series models for the exchange rate are estimated and tested for nonstationarity. The results of these test suggest that the pound`s volatility in recent years was consistent with an excessive growth in domestic versus foreign currency denominated liquidity rather than speculation.


Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange Rate Economics
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2007-03-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134801254

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First published in 2007. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence is the second edition of Floating Exchange Rates: Theories and Evidence, and builds on the successful content and structure of the previous edition, but has been comprehensively updated and expanded to include additional literature on the determination of both fixed and floating exchange rates. Core topics covered include: • the purchasing power parity hypothesis and the PPP puzzle; • the monetary and portfolio-balance approaches to exchange rates; • the new open economy macroeconomics approach to exchange rates; and • the determination of exchange rates in target zone models and speculative attack models. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence also includes extensive discussion of recent econometric work on exchange rates with a particular focus on equilibrium exchange rates and measuring exchange rate misalignment, as well as discussion on the non-fundamentals-based approaches to exchange rate behaviour, such as the market microstructure approach. The book will appeal to academics and postgraduate students with an interest in all aspects of international finance and will also be of interest to practitioners concerned with issues relating to equilibrium exchange rates and the forecastability of currencies in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals.


Exchange Rate Economics

Exchange Rate Economics
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 334
Release: 2005
Genre: Foreign exchange
ISBN: 1134838220

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''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""


Short-Term Speculators and the Origins of Near-Random-Walk Exchange Rate Behavior

Short-Term Speculators and the Origins of Near-Random-Walk Exchange Rate Behavior
Author: Carol L. Osler
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper suggests that normal speculative activity could be a source of random-walk exchange rate behavior. Using a noise trader model to analyze very short-term exchange rate behavior, it shows that rational, risk-averse speculators will smooth the impact of shocks to exchange rate fundamentals. With sufficient speculative activity, an exchange rate could become statistically indistinguishable from a random walk, regardless of the generating processes of its fundamental determinants. This result may help resolve the apparent inconsistency between the observed behavior of floating exchange rates and the behavior predicted by existing theoretical models given the actual behavior of exchange rate fundamentals. The result also suggests that heavy speculative activity could cause exchange rates to be forecast better via random-walk than via structural modelsᔞven when structural forces are correctly identified. Finally, the paper provides an explanation for the observed extended response of exchange rates to sterilized intervention.


The Art Of Speculation

The Art Of Speculation
Author: Philip L. Carret
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Total Pages: 401
Release: 2015-11-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1786256746

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Philip L. Carret (1896-1998) was a famed investor and founder of The Pioneer Fund (Fidelity Mutual Trust), one of the first Mutual Funds in the United States. A former Barron’s reporter and WWI aviator, Carret launched the Mutual Trust in 1928 after managing money for his friends and family. The initial effort evolved into Pioneer Investments. He ran the fund for 55 years, during which an investment of $10,000 became $8 million. Warren Buffett said of him that he had “the best long term investment record of anyone I know” He is most famous for the long successful track record he achieved investing in Common Stocks and for being one of Warren Buffett’s role models. This book comprises a series of articles written for Barron’s and published in book form in 1930.—Print Ed.