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Excess Savings, Under-Consumption and Secular Stagnation

Excess Savings, Under-Consumption and Secular Stagnation
Author: Rahul Menon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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Hansen's theory of secular stagnation has been resurrected in mainstream discourse today through economists such as Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman. The modern theory of stagnation believes that excess savings - brought about due to slowing population growth and the savings habits of developing economies - cannot be absorbed due to the inability of the nominal interest rate to go below zero. This theory is flawed in calling itself “Keynesian” since its focus on the interest rate as bringing savings and investment into equilibrium runs counter to Keynesian thought. A search for the theoretical antecedents of modern stagnation theory leads one to the under-consumption theories of Hobson and Malthus, in its focus on excess savings and constraints on consumption. As such, the central flaws of under-consumption theories find themselves repeated in modern stagnation theories, namely, its neglect of investment and its mistaken conception of the capitalist production process.


Secular Stagnation, Too Much Saving, Ben Bernanke Vs Larry Summers and the Theory of Limited Good

Secular Stagnation, Too Much Saving, Ben Bernanke Vs Larry Summers and the Theory of Limited Good
Author: Niccolo Leo Caldararo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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Current discussions among major economists finds significant disagreement in defining the status of the global economy. This article examines the main themes in the context of the theories presented on savings, consumption and investment. The primitive society concept of “limited good” appears to have more relevance than any of these theories of modernity. Central banks have been injecting liquidity into markets from the UK, EU, the USA and China and yet the effect has not produced “normality” in the world economy or domestic ones. A “magic” element is lacking and yet is this concept consonant with modernity as it has been described?


A Theory of Accumulation and Secular Stagnation

A Theory of Accumulation and Secular Stagnation
Author: Daniel Aronoff
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2018-01-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137562218

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Thomas Malthus identified a crucial tension at the heart of a market economy: While an accumulation of wealth is necessary to provide the capital investment needed to generate growth, too much accumulation will cause planned saving to exceed profitable investment, which will result in secular stagnation, a condition of low growth and underemployment of resources. Keynes drew inspiration from Malthus in his attempt to comprehend the causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Now, Aronoff demonstrates how a related but slightly different aspect of Malthus' thought can illuminate one of the most pressing issues of our times. In A Theory of Accumulation and Secular Stagnation, Aronoff explores Malthus' ideas relating to secular stagnation and uses the insight gained to understand the origins of the subpar growth and tepid employment, periodically punctuated by booms, that has plagued the US economy since the turn of the millennium. He explains how the rise of mercantilism among Asian countries – principally China – and increased income concentration generated an upsurge in excess saving. This accumulation created a chronic deficiency in demand while also depressing interest rates, which generated a search for yield that fuelled periodic booms.


International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.


Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.


The Vanishing Middle Class, new epilogue

The Vanishing Middle Class, new epilogue
Author: Peter Temin
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 288
Release: 2018-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262535297

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Why the United States has developed an economy divided between rich and poor and how racism helped bring this about. The United States is becoming a nation of rich and poor, with few families in the middle. In this book, MIT economist Peter Temin offers an illuminating way to look at the vanishing middle class. Temin argues that American history and politics, particularly slavery and its aftermath, play an important part in the widening gap between rich and poor. Temin employs a well-known, simple model of a dual economy to examine the dynamics of the rich/poor divide in America, and outlines ways to work toward greater equality so that America will no longer have one economy for the rich and one for the poor. Many poorer Americans live in conditions resembling those of a developing country—substandard education, dilapidated housing, and few stable employment opportunities. And although almost half of black Americans are poor, most poor people are not black. Conservative white politicians still appeal to the racism of poor white voters to get support for policies that harm low-income people as a whole, casting recipients of social programs as the Other—black, Latino, not like "us." Politicians also use mass incarceration as a tool to keep black and Latino Americans from participating fully in society. Money goes to a vast entrenched prison system rather than to education. In the dual justice system, the rich pay fines and the poor go to jail.


The Great Demographic Reversal

The Great Demographic Reversal
Author: Charles Goodhart
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2020-08-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030426572

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This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.


Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth

Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth
Author: Alvin H. Hansen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2013-10
Genre:
ISBN: 9781258977238

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This is a new release of the original 1939 edition.


Between Debt and the Devil

Between Debt and the Devil
Author: Adair Turner
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 330
Release: 2017-08-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691175985

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Why our addiction to debt caused the global financial crisis and is the root of our financial woes Adair Turner became chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority just as the global financial crisis struck in 2008, and he played a leading role in redesigning global financial regulation. In this eye-opening book, he sets the record straight about what really caused the crisis. It didn’t happen because banks are too big to fail—our addiction to private debt is to blame. Between Debt and the Devil challenges the belief that we need credit growth to fuel economic growth, and that rising debt is okay as long as inflation remains low. In fact, most credit is not needed for economic growth—but it drives real estate booms and busts and leads to financial crisis and depression. Turner explains why public policy needs to manage the growth and allocation of credit creation, and why debt needs to be taxed as a form of economic pollution. Banks need far more capital, real estate lending must be restricted, and we need to tackle inequality and mitigate the relentless rise of real estate prices. Turner also debunks the big myth about fiat money—the erroneous notion that printing money will lead to harmful inflation. To escape the mess created by past policy errors, we sometimes need to monetize government debt and finance fiscal deficits with central-bank money. Between Debt and the Devil shows why we need to reject the assumptions that private credit is essential to growth and fiat money is inevitably dangerous. Each has its advantages, and each creates risks that public policy must consciously balance.