Evidential Decision Theory PDF Download
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Author | : Arif Ahmed |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 112 |
Release | : 2021-10-21 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 1108607861 |
Download Evidential Decision Theory Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.
Author | : James M. Joyce |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 300 |
Release | : 1999-04-13 |
Genre | : Computers |
ISBN | : 9780521641647 |
Download The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true.
Author | : Arif Ahmed |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2017-02-02 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 9781316641545 |
Download Evidence, Decision and Causality Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents.
Author | : James M. Joyce |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 281 |
Release | : 1999-04-13 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 1139471384 |
Download The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.
Author | : Richard Bradley |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 351 |
Release | : 2017-10-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1107003210 |
Download Decision Theory with a Human Face Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Explores how decision-makers can manage uncertainty that varies in both kind and severity by extending and supplementing Bayesian decision theory.
Author | : Martin Peterson |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 351 |
Release | : 2017-03-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1107151597 |
Download An Introduction to Decision Theory Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A comprehensive and accessible introduction to all aspects of decision theory, now with new and updated discussions and over 140 exercises.
Author | : Arif Ahmed |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 243 |
Release | : 2018-11 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1107180279 |
Download Newcomb's Problem Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Which of two boxes to select for a monetary award; or, to select both? Someone else has predicted your choice.
Author | : José Luis Bermúdez |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 281 |
Release | : 2018-12-06 |
Genre | : Philosophy |
ISBN | : 1108420095 |
Download Self-Control, Decision Theory, and Rationality Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A distinguished group of philosophers, decision theorists, and psychologists offer new interdisciplinary perspectives on the rationality of self-control.
Author | : Arif Ahmed |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 261 |
Release | : 2014-08-07 |
Genre | : Education |
ISBN | : 1107020891 |
Download Evidence, Decision and Causality Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An explanation and defence of evidential decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role.
Author | : Katie Steele |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 120 |
Release | : 2021-09-09 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 1108608043 |
Download Beyond Uncertainty Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.