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Author | : Matthew Stephen Jones |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 206 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Mesometerology |
ISBN | : |
Download Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-range Ensemble Forecasting System Over the Northeast United States Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Eric P. Grimit |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 111 |
Release | : 2001 |
Genre | : Weather forecasting |
ISBN | : |
Download Implementation and Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-range Ensemble Forecasting System Over the Pacific Northwest Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Frederick Anthony Eckel |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 242 |
Release | : 2003-01-01 |
Genre | : Atmospheric circulation |
ISBN | : 9781423513162 |
Download Effective Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful forecast probability (FP). Real- time, 0 to 48-h forecasts from four different SREF systems were compared for 129 forecast cases over the Pacific Northwest. Eight analyses from different operational forecast centers were used as initial conditions (ICs) for running the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center of Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Additional ICs were generated through linear combinations of the original 8 analyses, but this did not result in an increase in FP skill commensurate with the increase in ensemble size. It was also found that an ensemble made up of unequally likely members can be skillful as long as all members at least occasionally perform well. Model error is a large source of forecast uncertainty and must be accounted for to maximize SREF utility, particularly for mesoscale, sensible weather phenomena. Inclusion of model perturbations in a SREF increased dispersion toward statistical consistency, but low dispersion remained problematic. Additionally, model perturbations notably improved FP skill (both reliability and resolution), revealing the significant influence of model uncertainty. Systematic model errors (i.e., biases) should always be removed from a SREF since they are a large part of forecast error but do not contribute to forecast uncertainty. A grid-based, 2-week, running-mean bias correction was shown to improve FP skill through: 1) better reliability by adjusting the ensemble mean toward the verification's mean, and 2) better resolution by reducing unrealistic ensemble variance.
Author | : F. Martin Ralph |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 284 |
Release | : 2020-07-10 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 3030289060 |
Download Atmospheric Rivers Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 416 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : Climatology |
ISBN | : |
Download Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Pallav Ray |
Publisher | : BoD – Books on Demand |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2013-05-22 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 9535111329 |
Download Climate Change and Regional/Local Responses Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.
Author | : Mark Gingrich |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 70 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Mesometeorology |
ISBN | : |
Download Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.
Author | : National Research Council |
Publisher | : National Academies Press |
Total Pages | : 193 |
Release | : 2010-09-08 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 0309161347 |
Download Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author | : Maurice E. Pautz |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 1971 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Meso-Scale Analysis and Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A collection of meso-scale analysis and forecasting techniques to aid the station forecaster in making improved short-range forecasts. These techniques include plotting and analysis of the pressure, temperature, streamline and upper air fields with methods to use these fields for forecasting. Even though these methods are not new this manuscript brings all the current techniques into one collection. (Author).
Author | : Chih-Pei Chang |
Publisher | : World Scientific |
Total Pages | : 609 |
Release | : 2011 |
Genre | : Nature |
ISBN | : 9814343412 |
Download The Global Monsoon System Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book presents a current review of the science of monsoon research and forecasting. The contents are based on the invited reviews presented at the World Meteorological Organization''s Fourth International Workshop on Monsoons in late 2008, with subsequent manuscripts revised from 2009 to early 2010. The book builds on the concept that the monsoons in various parts of the globe can be viewed as components of an integrated global monsoon system, while emphasizing that significant region-specific characteristics are present in individual monsoon regions. The topics covered include all major monsoon regions and time scales (mesoscale, synoptic, intraseasonal, interannual, decadal, and climate change). It is intended to provide an updated comprehensive review of the current status of knowledge, modeling capability, and future directions in the research of monsoon systems around the world.