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Evaluating the Costs of Government Credit Support Programs During COVID-19: International Evidence

Evaluating the Costs of Government Credit Support Programs During COVID-19: International Evidence
Author: Mr. Gee Hee Hong
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2023-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Advanced economies made available more than 5 trillion USD through government-supported credit guarantee and direct loan programs to provide lifelines to firms in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notwithstanding the unprecedented scale of credit made available, an in-depth analysis of the fiscal consequences is missing, and the costs of these programs are not recognized in a transparent way. In this paper, we fill in an important aspect of the fiscal picture by estimating the subsidies that were provided by the largest credit guarantee programs introduced in 2020 in seven advanced economies. We estimate the subsidies on a fair value basis that provides a consistent and comprehensive upfront measure of cost. We explain the logic behind applying a fair value framework in a government context and compare it to alternative approaches. For the programs that we examine, total credit extended totaled 1.7 trillion USD. The subsidy element (cash-equivalent subsidy) is estimated to be 67 percent of loan principal on average (37 percent, excluding the US PPP), with a wide range across programs, from 12 to 100 percent. The variation is explained by differences across programs including eligibility criteria, loan terms, compensation to lenders, and other program design choices.


The Promise of Fintech

The Promise of Fintech
Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2020-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513512242

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Technology is changing the landscape of the financial sector, increasing access to financial services in profound ways. These changes have been in motion for several years, affecting nearly all countries in the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, technology has created new opportunities for digital financial services to accelerate and enhance financial inclusion, amid social distancing and containment measures. At the same time, the risks emerging prior to COVID-19, as digital financial services developed, are becoming even more relevant.


Improving Fiscal Transparency to Raise Government Efficiency and Reduce Corruption Vulnerabilities in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Improving Fiscal Transparency to Raise Government Efficiency and Reduce Corruption Vulnerabilities in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Author: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2020-05-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513532839

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This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.


Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 109
Release: 2019-10-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498324029

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The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.


Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2021-04-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513569678

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Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.


The Future of Microfinance

The Future of Microfinance
Author: Ira W. Lieberman
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 493
Release: 2020-06-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815737645

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A major source of financing for the poor and no longer a niche industry Over the past four decades, microfinance—the provision of loans, savings, and insurance to small businesses and entrepreneurs shut out of traditional capital markets—has grown from a niche service in Bangladesh and a few other countries to a significant global source of financing. Some 200 million people globally now receive support from microfinance institutions, with most of the recipients in the developing world. In the beginning, much of the microfinance industry was managed by non-governmental organizations, but today the majority of these institutions are commercial and regulated by governments, and they provide safe places for the poor to save, as well as offering much-needed capital and other financial services. Now out of infancy, the microfinance industry faces major challenges, including its ability to deal with mobile banking and other technology and concerns that some markets are now over-saturated with microfinance. How the industry deals with these and other challenges will determine whether it will continue to grow or will be subsumed within the larger global financial sector. This book is based on the results of a workshop at Lehigh University among thirty-four leaders in the industry. The editors, working with contributions from more than a dozen leading authorities in the field, tell the important story of how microfinance developed, how it has met the needs of hundreds of millions of people, and they address key questions about how it can continue to meet those needs in the future.


Economic and fiscal outlook

Economic and fiscal outlook
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
Total Pages: 164
Release: 2010-11-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780101797924

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The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.


The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility

The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility
Author: Sharjil M. Haque
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2021-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589064127

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We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.


IMF Conditionality

IMF Conditionality
Author: John Williamson
Publisher: MIT Press (MA)
Total Pages: 708
Release: 1983
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The twenty-one contributions in this book assess the controversy surrounding the Fund and provide judgments about the criteria for Fund lending which should help readers understand and analyze both its ongoing role in smoothing adjustment to international payments imbalances and its currently critical position in responding to the debt crisis.


Plandemic

Plandemic
Author: Chris Pilkerton
Publisher: Post Hill Press
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2024-08-13
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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“We were in absolute crisis, and we were risking a major, major meltdown of financial conditions, economic conditions and health conditions simultaneously.” —Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the US Treasury, September 2020 “We packed months of legislative process into five days.” —US Senator Charles Schumer, March 2020 “Be fast, have no regrets. You must be the first mover. The virus will always get you if you don’t move quickly.” —Dr. Michael Ryan, World Health Organization/epidemiologist, March 2020 ____________________________________________ In early 2020, the American economy was roaring. Unemployment was historically low, and small business optimism was on the rise. And then the coronavirus changed everything. Lockdowns, massive unemployment claims, and small business closures spread throughout the country. Those who could do so worked from their homes, virtually educating their children and trying to maintain some sense of normalcy for their families. All they could do was watch the news as the media reported that millions of Americans were infected with the virus, and that many would ultimately lose their lives to complications associated with the disease. Along Main Streets across the country, the dreams of countless entrepreneurs faced permanent ruin; their hopes hung in the balance in the halls of Congress and within the walls of the Oval Office. The CARES Act was passed and signed into law in March 2020, with a price tag of over $2 trillion. Small businesses and their workers relied on various programs, including the now famed Paycheck Protection Program, which ultimately sought to inject $800 billion into the US economy. This is the story of that time, and what the world learned about the resilience of the entrepreneur. In Plandemic, former US Small Business Administration Acting Administrator and White House Senior Policy Advisor Chris Pilkerton contends that when the next pandemic hits, policymakers must be prepared with a focused action plan to support the economic engine of the United States of America: small business.