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| Author | : Christian Blonczewski |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Söhnke M. Bartram |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
We use, for the first time, a time-varying copula model to investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on the dependence between seventeen European stock markets during the period 1994-2003. The model is implemented with a GJR-GARCH-t model for the marginal distributions and the Gaussian copula for the joint distribution, which allows capturing time-varying, non-linear relationships and offers significant advantages over other econometric techniques in analyzing the co-movement of financial time-series. The results show that, within the Euro area, market dependence increased after the introduction of the common currency only for large equity markets, such as in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, while transaction costs remain important barriers to investment in and thus stronger co-movement of smaller markets. Structural break tests indicate that the increase in financial market dependence started around the beginning of 1998 when Euro membership was determined and the relevant information was announced. We also estimate time-varying dependence measures for non-Euro European countries with the Euro-zone equity market. The UK and Sweden, but not other countries outside the Euro area, are found to exhibit an increase in equity market co-movement, which is consistent with the interpretation that these countries may be expected to join the Euro in the future.
| Author | : Söhnke M. Bartram |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 52 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
This paper uses a copula model to investigate the degree and determinants of European market dependence across 10 industries in 12 Euro zone and 8 non-Euro zone stock markets during the period 1992-2011. Most of the industries in Euro countries show a dependence increase with the Euro-area after the introduction of the Euro. The effects are strongest in countries with larger market capitalization and in the Financials, Industrials, Consumer Goods, Utilities, Technology and Telecommunications industries. Overall, the export intensity, interest rate sensitivity and competitiveness of an industry and the financial development and economic openness of a country are the most important determinants of changes in equity market dependence. The period around the Lehman collapse also shows higher equity market dependence between European countries, while the lower dependence increase during the period of the recent European sovereign debt crisis suggests that country-specific factors may matter more than before.
| Author | : Hoang Nguyen |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2022 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Stock and oil relationship is usually time-varying and depends on the current economic conditions. In this study, we propose a new Dynamic Stochastic Mixed data frequency sampling (DSM) copula model, that decomposes the stock-oil relationship into a short-run dynamic stochastic component and a long-run component, governed by related macro-finance variables. We find that inflation/interest rate, uncertainty and liquidity factors are the main drivers of the long-run co-dependence. We show that investment portfolios, based on the proposed DSM copula model, are more accurate and produce better economic outcomes as compared to other alternatives.
| Author | : Harry Joe |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 370 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 981429988X |
1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka
| Author | : William R. Bell |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 544 |
| Release | : 2018-11-14 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 1439846588 |
Economic Time Series: Modeling and Seasonality is a focused resource on analysis of economic time series as pertains to modeling and seasonality, presenting cutting-edge research that would otherwise be scattered throughout diverse peer-reviewed journals. This compilation of 21 chapters showcases the cross-fertilization between the fields of time s
| Author | : Valentin Braun |
| Publisher | : BoD – Books on Demand |
| Total Pages | : 178 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3844100407 |
The interactions of financial securities are crucial to determine possible portfolio losses. Although this fact is well understood, two questions remain: What causes changes in the dependence structure of financial assets? How can fluctuating dependencies be measured? The most common approach to identify the amplitude of financial assets' interactions are linear correlation coefficients. However, they fail to comprise shifts in the dependence structure. Alternatively, Copulas are a more flexible dependence measurement. This book focuses on the development of Dynamic Copula frameworks by implementing stochastic parameters into Archimedian and Elliptical Copula functions. In contrast to static correlation measures, the Dynamic Copulas are able to replicate unstable financial market interactions. Various Dynamic Copulas are applied to global stock, bond, commodity and exchange rate data to calculate the correlation time paths, which explain financial market reactions to economic shocks. Furthermore, the interactions of dependencies, volatility and returns are analyzed, to determine the efficiency of portfolio diversification in regards to wealth protection. Portfolio risks are estimated through Dynamic Copulas to demonstrate their abilities to replicate financial market interactions accurately. Additionally, this analysis reveals the impact of changing dependence intensities on the magnitude of possible portfolio losses. Finally, the Dynamic Copulas are utilized to allocate higher moment optimal portfolios. This examination emphasizes the effect of inaccurate correlation estimates on the portfolio choice.
| Author | : Harry Joe |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 422 |
| Release | : 1997-05-01 |
| Genre | : Mathematics |
| ISBN | : 9780412073311 |
This book on multivariate models, statistical inference, and data analysis contains deep coverage of multivariate non-normal distributions for modeling of binary, count, ordinal, and extreme value response data. It is virtually self-contained, and includes many exercises and unsolved problems.
| Author | : Umberto Cherubini |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 310 |
| Release | : 2004-10-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470863455 |
Copula Methods in Finance is the first book to address the mathematics of copula functions illustrated with finance applications. It explains copulas by means of applications to major topics in derivative pricing and credit risk analysis. Examples include pricing of the main exotic derivatives (barrier, basket, rainbow options) as well as risk management issues. Particular focus is given to the pricing of asset-backed securities and basket credit derivative products and the evaluation of counterparty risk in derivative transactions.
| Author | : Stephen J. Taylor |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 297 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9812770852 |
This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (1,134 KB). Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series. Readership: Academic researchers in finance & economics; quantitative analysts.
