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Author | : Mr.Tarhan Feyzioglu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 25 |
Release | : 1997-09-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451853173 |
Download Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is estimated with the cointegration technique for Finland for the period 1975-95. The estimation produced a reasonable set of equilibrium exchange rates that appreciate with positive shocks to the terms of trade, world real interest rates, and the productivity differential between Finland and its trading partners.
Author | : Steven Vincent Dunaway |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 20 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Equilibrium (Economics) |
ISBN | : |
Download How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Increased attention is being paid to assessments of the actual values of countries' real exchange rates relative to their "equilibrium" values as suggested by "fundamental" determining factors. This paper assesses the robustness of alternative approaches and models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Using China's currency to illustrate this analysis, the variance in estimates raises serious questions regarding how robust the results are. The basic conclusion from the tests used here is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Thus, such estimates should be treated with great caution.
Author | : Mr.Joannes Mongardini |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 1998-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451842155 |
Download Estimating Egypt’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In light of the real appreciation of the Egyptian pound over the last six years and Egypt’s lackluster export growth, questions of external competitiveness and exchange rate policy have arisen. This paper sheds light on these issues by estimating empirically Egypt’s equilibrium real exchange rate, that is, the rate that is consistent with fundamentals. The results show that, while the real exchange rate was substantially overvalued before 1993, today it is only moderately above the equilibrium rate. Moreover, the analysis shows that the recent appreciation of the pound does not indicate a worsening misalignment.
Author | : Mr.Johan Mathisen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2003-05-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451852789 |
Download Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This paper computes Malawi's equilibrium real exchange rate as a function of its fundamentals as derived from economic theory. It finds evidence in favor of the equilibrium approach to exchange rate determination, with several variables (particularly government consumption and real per capita growth) found to drive movements in the time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate. The results also indicate that following a shock there is a rapid reversion of the real exchange rate to its time-varying equilibrium, with a half-life of reversion of about 11 months.
Author | : John Williamson |
Publisher | : Peterson Institute |
Total Pages | : 608 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780881320763 |
Download Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.
Author | : Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 25 |
Release | : 2003-03-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451846436 |
Download Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Based on the Johansen cointegration estimation methodology, much of the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate of South Africa can be explained by real interest rate differentials, GDP per capita (both relative to trading partners), real commodity prices, trade openness, the fiscal balance, and the extent of net foreign assets. On the basis of these fundamentals, the real exchange rate in early 2002 was found to be significantly more depreciated with respect to the estimated equilibrium level. The half-life of the deviation of the real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium one was found to be somewhat more than two years.
Author | : Jerome L. Stein |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 276 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780198293064 |
Download Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
"This book greatly enhances our understanding of the behavior of real exchange rates. It provides an elegant model based on a solid theoretical foundation that links real exchange rates to their fundamental economic determinants and takes proper account of stock and flow considerations. The authors provide a masterful account of how changes in productivity and thrift affect the real exchange rate, and show that the long-run impact depends crucially on whether the change reflects the former fundamental (investment) or the latter (consumption). The empirical implementation uses state-of-the-art cointegration and error correction methodologies that are eminently well suited to capture the short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to its medium- to long-run equilibrium value. The empirical results are extremely encouraging, as the economic fundamentals identified by the authors can explain a substantial part of the movement in the real exchange rate of a number of countries."--Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund
Author | : Mr.John Cady |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 20 |
Release | : 2003-02-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451844689 |
Download The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of the Malagasy Franc Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Employing cointegration techniques, the long-run determinants of Madagascar's real exchange rate are examined from a stock-flow perspective. The long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate is explained by the net foreign asset position and factors affecting trade flows. An index of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate is developed to assess the degree of misalignment. The general conclusions are that the Malagasy franc has experienced significant misalignment in the past, but that the recent appreciation of the real effective exchange rate is consistent with changes in the fundamentals, particularly anticipated improvements in the net foreign assets position stemming from Madagascar's eligibility for assistance under the enhanced HIPC Initiative.
Author | : Ohn Baffes |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 1999 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Single-equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Ronald MacDonald |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 364 |
Release | : 1999-07-31 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780792384243 |
Download Equilibrium Exchange Rates Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.