Estimating Potential Output in Developing Countries
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : Electronic book |
| ISBN | : |
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IMF Estimates of Potential Output
| Author | : Ms.Paula De Masi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 15 |
| Release | : 1997-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451974981 |
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The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of IMF research on potential output, which has focused mainly on the industrial countries but more recently has addressed issues related to developing countries and countries in transition. It then discusses the approaches that country desk officers use for operational purposes, and presents estimates of potential output for the major industrial countries.
Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2010-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1455210927 |
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This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
IMF Estimates of Potential Output
| Author | : Paula DeMasi |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 14 |
| Release | : 2014 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download IMF Estimates of Potential Output Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF`s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of IMF research on potential output, which has focused mainly on the industrial countries but more recently has addressed issues related to developing countries and countries in transition. It then discusses the approaches that country desk officers use for operational purposes, and presents estimates of potential output for the major industrial countries.
A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output
| Author | : Patrick Blagrave |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2015-04-07 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 148432269X |
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Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States
| Author | : Ali Alichi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 25 |
| Release | : 2017-05-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475598386 |
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Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.
Estimating Poland's Potential Output
| Author | : Mr.Natan P. Epstein |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 22 |
| Release | : 2010-01-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451962096 |
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The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances
| Author | : Claude Giorno |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 62 |
| Release | : 1995 |
| Genre | : Budget |
| ISBN | : |
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Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the Euro Area and the United States
| Author | : Ali Alichi |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2015-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513501836 |
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The estimates of potential output and the output gap presented in this paper are not official IMF estimates. The programs and potential output estimates in this paper can be downloaded from www.douglaslaxton.org.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. The authors would like to thank the European Department of the IMF for helpful comments. All errors and omissions are our own.
Measuring the Potential Output of South Africa
| Author | : Nir Klein |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2011-08-25 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475510144 |
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This paper provides an assessment of the South African potential output for the period 1985-2010 by applying both structural and nonstructural estimation techniques. The analysis suggests that, while potential output growth steadily accelerated in the post-apartheid era to about 3 1/2 percent (1994-2008), it has decelerated considerably following the outbreak of the financial crisis, as was observed in other advanced and emerging economies. While this indicates that, at around -1 1/ 2 percent, the estimated 2010 output gap was lower than previously thought, there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding its "true" magnitude, reflecting in part the backward looking nature of the estimation methods. The paper concludes that the potential growth is likely to gradually revert to its precrisis pace and the output gap to have closed by early 2012.
