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Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy

Essays in Macroeconomics of an Open Economy
Author: Franz Gehrels
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 194
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642956599

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The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.


Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics

Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics
Author: Kihyun Park
Publisher:
Total Pages: 147
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation studies the dynamic effects of various economic shocks in a two-sector small open economy. It is divided into three essays. Essays 1 and 2 have a theoretical focus; they involve the developing of intertemporal optimizing models of a small open economy. In these essays, we use the representative-agent framework to derive dynamic macroeconomic effects. Specifically, in the first essay we examine the effects of monetary policy targeted at an inflation rate in a small open economy. We adopt a two-sector dependent economy where money is introduced through various cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints. Results are very significant and sensitive to various CIA constraints as well as relative capital intensities. Higher inflation will generate more investment in the economy leading to a higher level of capital stock and a lower level of net foreign assets in the long-run when the nontraded sector is more capital intensive and households need cash for purchasing tradable goods. However, the long-run effects are completely opposite if households need real balances for purchasing nontradable goods instead. In the second essay we examine the effects and the associated dynamics of an increase in international oil prices and domestic inflation. We show that an increase in oil prices or higher domestic inflation lowers the level of investment, production, and consumption in the long-run. The economy experiences a current account surplus along with a fall in capital stock by holding more foreign traded bonds. Transitional dynamics significantly depend on sectoral capital intensity as well. In essay 3 we investigate the explanatory power of yield spread in predicting economic activities in developing economies. We employ both the Markov regime switching model (MS) and the probit model to estimate the probability of recessions during the Asian financial crisis. We find that three-regime MS model is better predictor of recessions than tworegime MS model. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.


Essays on Small Open Economy Macroeconomics

Essays on Small Open Economy Macroeconomics
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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In Chapter 1, using panel structural VAR analysis with quarterly data from six emerging Latin American countries, we document that the effects of government spending shocks depend on the share of public debt denominated in foreign currency. We find that the ratio of public debt denominated in foreign currency is a critical determinant of the real exchange rate responses. Economies with larger exposure to the foreign currency denominated public debt (HFC) responds with a real exchange rate depreciation to an increase in government consumption expenditure, while economies with a lower ratio (LFC) respond with real exchange rate appreciation. Correspondingly, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the HFC group increases faster in response to government spending shocks. Moreover, a rise in government spending increases private consumption more significantly in the HFC group. We find that government spending shocks raise output and consumption regardless of the currency denomination of debt. Moreover, the fiscal multipliers in both two groups are above one. To offer a theoretical explanation of these observed patterns, in Chapter 2 we develop a simple small open economy version of New Keynesian Open Economy Model (NOEM) and compare two model specifications which differ in the assumption about the currency denomination of debt: a foreign-currency bond economy (FB) and a domestic-currency bond economy (DB). In the FB (DB) economy, all debt is issued in foreign (domestic) currency. Comparing these two extreme assumptions allows us to shed light on the role of currency denomination of debt in explaining the cross-country variations in the effects of government spending shocks. We show that our proposed model can replicate the empirical findings documented in Chapter 1. A novel feature of our model is that the country-specific risk premium is positively correlated with the expected exchange rate depreciation, and the correlation parameter depends on currency denomination of debt. We discuss how our modification of risk premium makes the real exchange determined by two competing forces and under what conditions a real depreciation can be generated. In Chapter 3, we propose a generalized model in which both types of debt coexist and the ratio of foreign currency debt endogenously determines the strength of exchange rate depreciation mechanism. The model is shown to replicate well the observed responses of macroeconomic variables to an increase in government spending.


Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics

Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics
Author: Wontae Han
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation consists of two independent essays on open economy macroeconomics. The first chapter of the dissertation is motivated by the question: "What rationalizes the stylized facts of emerging market business and credit cycles?" Business and credit cycles in emerging countries display very volatile consumption, highly volatile and countercyclical net exports, strongly countercyclical real interest rates, and procyclical flows of credit to the household sector and to the business sector. The standard small-open-economy (SOE) model cannot generate this cyclical pattern of the interest rate and the change in credit market liabilities of households. In order to correct this irregularity and account for the data pattern, this paper augments the SOE model to include collateral constraints for the household sector and limited enforcement constraints for the banking sector. The model generates business and credit cycles consistent with Korean data and gives a rationale for highly volatile consumption, countercyclical country interest rates, and procyclical credit flows. In the counterfactual experiments, we find that the output volatility in Korea is reduced by 11% and welfare gains amount to 0.17% increase in one quarter's steady-state consumption when the default risk in the financial sector is completely eliminated. The second chapter investigates how the presence of pricing-to-market and the degree of imperfect financial market integration affects the effectiveness of optimal monetary policy. Global resource allocation can be inefficient because exporting firms may set different prices among markets and households in different countries may pay different prices for identical goods. On the other hand, political, technological, or informational barriers may hinder capital flows across countries, leading to deviations from perfect cross-country risk sharing. Considering this stylized setting, we augment a standard monetary open economy model to include the failure of the law of one price and imperfect financial market integration. We characterize the optimal monetary policy and assess its effectiveness in compared to inward-looking policies


Three Essays in Open Economy and International Macroeconomics

Three Essays in Open Economy and International Macroeconomics
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation comprises three essays in open economy and international macroeconomics. The first essay investigates the propagation mechanism of real exchange rate shocks to key real sectors that constitute U.S. foreign trade. The analysis is carried out by decomposing the U.S. trade balance into agriculture, manufacturing and services and evaluating how these sectors respond through the monetary policy channel to a shock in the real exchange rate. A VAR model is constructed using quarterly data of the U.S. foreign trade from 1976Q2 to 2005Q1. The results show that a shock to the real exchange rate has a greater impact on manufacturing and services net trade relative to agriculture. Moreover, the results also indicate, at the sectoral level, that exports are more sensitive to the real exchange rate shocks than are imports. These results are important to researchers using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of small open economies because they show transmission features of real exchange rate and monetary policy disturbances to key sectoral components of exports, imports and the trade balance. The second essay employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework to an open economy setting in order to investigate the mechanism through which the key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing and services are affected by shocks in the real exchange rates. The essay investigates exchange rate movements as deviations from purchasing power parity, disregarding the changes in the prices of non-tradable goods relative to tradable goods among countries. The results suggest that exchange rate movements are a function of structural parameters that constitute the three sectors of agriculture, manufacturing and services such as labor shares and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. The third essay examines the key forces driving innovation among entrepreneurs of ICT (information and communications technology) firms within Bangalore, India0́9s leading software city. The essay employs the multinomial logistic technique on qualitative variables related to education, social strata, experience, and diaspora of Indian software entrepreneurs to show empirically their relevance in explaining Schumpeterian innovation in the Indian software industry. This study not only looks at the impact of years of schooling on innovation, but also the types of education received by an entrepreneur, such as technical or commercial type of education, whether the last degree was received from India or from abroad and whether the entrepreneur attended the Indian Institute of Technology. The empirical results indicate that, the level of education, in terms of number of years of schooling and types of education received by an Indian software entrepreneur are statistically significant in explaining innovation in the Indian software industry. The results also show that, more years of experience in the software industry by an entrepreneur, increases the probability that they become innovators and reduces the likelihood of imitation. Moreover, the likelihood of adaptation is invariant to years of experience in the industry. We also investigate whether exposure to foreign technology increases the likelihood of innovation in the industry by examining three types of diaspora networks, that is, living abroad, working abroad and being a CEO abroad at least 6 months before establishing a software company in India. The results suggest that this foreign exposure increases the likelihood of innovation and reduces imitation and adaptation. Among studies of Indian entrepreneurs examining caste, this study is unique in that caste has no statistical significance in explaining entrepreneurship.


Current Issues in Open Economy Macroeconomics

Current Issues in Open Economy Macroeconomics
Author: J. L. Ford
Publisher:
Total Pages: 248
Release: 1990
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Open economy macroeconomics is a major focus of research interest stimulated in part by the increasing interdependence of the world economy and by the move towards floating exchange rates. This important new book addresses several central issues in the macroeconomic theory of different forms of open economies under differing degrees of dependency.


Essays in Empirical Macroeconomics

Essays in Empirical Macroeconomics
Author: Ashish Rajbhandari
Publisher:
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN: 9781267256522

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My dissertation is mostly focused on the effects and quantitative importance of news shocks in an open economy DSGE model. The novelty of these models pertain to their ability to analyze business cycle fluctuations in a structural setting with rigorous micro foundations. The first two chapters of my dissertation estimates open economy DSGE models and investigates the role of news shocks in explaining international business cycles. My third chapter focuses on identification and estimation of a partially observable bivariate probit model. The first paper, titled Propagation of News Shocks in an Open Economy DSGE model, estimates a large open economy DSGE model of US and the Euro area with frictions and news shocks along with other unanticipated structural shocks. The role of news shocks in generating business cycles is an area of ongoing research and has garnered attention as being a major contributor of output fluctuations. In this paper we find that news shocks that originate domestically have an important quantitative role in explaining domestic output, inflation and interest rates. More specifically, news shocks from the US explain about 30% of US output and those from the Euro explain about 35% of Euro output. The international transmission of news shocks however are not important in affecting business cycles across countries. The second paper, titled News shocks and Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy of Canada investigates the role of news shocks in a small open economy of Canada. Moreover we are also interested in the international transmission of such shocks from a large foreign economy such as the US. In this paper, we estimated a small open economy DSGE model with rigidities using Bayesian methods. We find that news shocks from the US have negligible role in explaining aggregate fluctuations in Canada. Nonetheless, we also find that news shocks originating in Canada play an important role domestically. The third paper is titled Identification and MCMC Estimation of bivariate probit models with partial observability. Partial observability in a bivariate probit model arises when one can only observe the binary outcome of a paired decision. Following Poirier (1980) we find a host of research applying a version of this model. However, most applications heavily rely on the assumption of independence across equations and forego estimation of the correlation parameter while some report misleading estimates. In this paper we perform Monte Carlo simulations to show that estimating the correlation parameter in a partially observable case is nontrivial as compared to a fully observable case. We also estimate the model using maximum likelihood as well as bayesian MCMC methods and apply to a dataset of Prezeworski and Vreeland (2002) studying the role of IMF.