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Essays on Identification in Macroeconomics

Essays on Identification in Macroeconomics
Author: Andres Pablo Sarto
Publisher:
Total Pages: 147
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis studies new methods to estimate the effects of interventions at the macroeconomic level using regional variation. Chapter 1 studies the relationship between elasticities at the regional level and elasticities at the macroeconomic level. To this end, I analyze regional versions of canonical macroeconomic models, along with different policies of interest, such as aggregate government spending. At the regional level, I show that there are two relevant elasticities for policy analyses, the micro-local elasticities and the micro-global elasticities. The former measure how a region reacts to a regional policy, the latter measure how a region reacts to an aggregate policy. I then show that the macro elasticity of interest is a function of the micro-global elasticities exclusively. Finally, I show that if we fix a policy and an outcome variable, the mapping from the micro-global elasticities to the macro elasticity is the same across models. Chapter 2 proposes a new approach (Regional Structural VAR (RSVAR)) to estimate macroeconomic elasticities using regional data that avoids the problem of model-specific estimates. I first define a class of models, which includes the most widely used models for policy analysis, that gives equilibrium regional equations that contain the micro-local and micro-global elasticities. I then specify different sets of identification assumptions, along with estimators of the macroeconomic elasticities, and show that the estimators proposed are consistent. The crucial assumption underlying all of these results is that regions are heterogeneous in the sense that they react differently to the same shocks. Chapter 3 provides a new identification strategy to estimate the fiscal multiplier in the US. Using state-level data for the period 1971-2008, I apply a RSVAR approach to recover the national fiscal multiplier. The instrument employed at the state level is the official declarations of natural disasters by the federal government. My results suggest a very precisely estimated fiscal multiplier of around 1, depending on the specification used. Thus, it is not possible to rule out the possibility that government spending crowds out/in private spending. However, the range of the estimates obtained (0.7 - 1.2) suggests that either effect should be small.


Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance

Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance
Author: Lucas Bernard
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 332
Release: 2016-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319398873

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This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.


Economic Theory, Welfare, and the State

Economic Theory, Welfare, and the State
Author: Athanasios Asimakopulos
Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Total Pages: 291
Release: 1991-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0773563032

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Economic Theory, Welfare, and the State looks at how economic theory can be used to investigate and analyse the operations of market economies and to provide the basis for improvements in government policy-making. The collection begins with two chapters on the history of economic thought, followed by an exploration of possible areas of conflict between the interests of groups and individuals, and an insightful blend of economic history and economic theory that sheds light on the Canadian government's policy of settling the Prairies by providing land grants. Also included are a critical analysis of rational expectations models and their use in econometrics, an examination of why money should be treated as a public good, and two contributions on international trade theory. Two chapters deal with the problem of maintaining satisfactory levels of employment and three chapters examine different aspects of public pensions. Among the contributors to this volume are a former teacher of Weldon's, his fellow students and colleagues, and former students. They are Louis Ascah, Athanasios Asimakopulos, Clarence Lyle Barber, Kenneth E. Boulding, John Burbidge, Robert D. Cairns, John S. Chipman, John H. Dales, Christopher Green, Peter Howitt, Murray C. Kemp, Gideon Rosenbluth, Robin Rowley, Thomas K. Rymes, David Schwartzman, Dan Usher, and Shigemi Yabuuchi.


The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance

The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 785
Release: 2018-01-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190877502

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The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.


Essays on Efficacy of Macroeconomic Policies

Essays on Efficacy of Macroeconomic Policies
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 196
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN: 9781321540383

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This research analyzes efficacy of the macroeconomic policies and the role of policymakers to deal with a recessionary case. In particular, it focuses on the instruments policymakers have in hand to stimulate the economic activity. It does the quantitative multiplier analysis for economies with various forms of financial market imperfections to provide a greater degree of realism into macroeconomic modeling. The first chapter analyzes efficacy of a fiscal policy tool, a tax cut in particular, in a liquidity trap scenario where monetary expansion is ineffective. It basically answers a question, as to when the zero-lower-bound is binding and the conventional monetary policy is not working, whether the discretionary fiscal policy is really ineffective as has recently been argued. The second chapter focuses on unconventional monetary policy in a closed economy and researches a question as to whether certain assumptions regarding constraints and rigidities amplify or mitigate the macroeconomic or real effects of unconventional monetary policy. The third chapter examines the macroeconomic effects of a social security reform. It analyzes contributions from different forms of changes; quantifies the macroeconomic implications of various reforms. Scenario analysis reveal positive effects for labor supply, capital stock and output to the reform implemented.


The Endogenization of Government Behaviour in Macroeconomic Models

The Endogenization of Government Behaviour in Macroeconomic Models
Author: Bern C.J. van Velthoven
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 374
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642745911

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In chapter 2 we concluded that the present public choice and marxist approaches to the study of political processes, as far as relevant for the analysis of economic policy making, are unsatisfactory, for reasons of incoherency, insufficient empirical support, and lack of specificity~ It was suggested that a different approach to the subject might be fruitful. To that purpose, we now turn our attention to the so-called interest function approach to the study of politico-economic phenomena, that has been developed by Van Winden (1983). See also Van Winden (1987), Van Velthoven and Van Winden (1986). Without paying too much attention to the specific conduct of and intricate relationships between voters, politicians, bureaucrats and interest groups, the interest function approach intends to combine valuable elements of the marxist and public choice analyses. According to Van Winden (1983, p. 12) "this means that in studying the interaction between state and private sector, attention should be paid to: - social classes, and the impact of class/power relationships on political and economic processes; - the way that social power structures (involving the real control over state activities) are maintained or altered; - the relative autonomy of political processes (involving the state) and its consequences for, as well as its dependence on economic processes; - individual motivations; - the possibility of mathematical formalization. " Section 3. 2. will give a general introduction to the concepts and the line of argument of the interest function approach.


Observers and Macroeconomic Systems

Observers and Macroeconomic Systems
Author: Ric D. Herbert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 338
Release: 1998-10-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0792382390

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Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.


Macroeconomic Theory and Economic Policy

Macroeconomic Theory and Economic Policy
Author: K. Vela Velupillai
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2004-04-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134358717

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Jean-Paul Fitoussi needs no introduction as one of the world's foremost Macroeconomists of his generation. This celebration of his work includes contributions from Nobel Prize - winning economists Robert W. Clower and Robert Solow as well as Olivier Blanchard and leading economic theorist, Edmond Malinvaud.