Essays On Agricultural Risk Management And Water Use And Recreational Fishing Participation After Ecological Disruption By An Invasive Species PDF Download

Considered in this dissertation are three essays that examine the consequences of including spatial and ecological details in estimates of welfare following an invasive species invasion. Each essay uncovers the biases that may arise if such components are misrepresented or underutilized, informing policymakers and researchers to proceed with caution in using potentially biased welfare estimates for cost-benefit analysis decisions. In the essays, computable general equilibrium models are applied to a case study on Asian carp in Lake Michigan - an aquatic invasive species expected to impact fish species and Lake areas in heterogenous ways. Construction of the spatial computable general equilibrium models and the implications for model specifications are explored in the first two essays. The third essay examines biological control options and the potential for unintended policy consequences. Chapter 1 develops the computable general equilibrium model that forms the basis for analyzing space and species-specific impacts from the invasion. The model is designed to link spatial biomass data from the Atlantis ecosystem model of Lake Michigan with recreational fishing behavior and the broader economy. Invasion impacts on biomass levels of sport-fishing species across time and space are heterogenous and influence decisions regarding when, where, and what species to fish. After generating the welfare implications from the explicit space and species model, the results are compared to other versions of the model that aggregate out space or species information. Results indicate that aggregating over one or both may under- or over-estimate welfare impacts by failing to account for important tradeoffs between ecological and economic systems. The magnitude and direction of the misestimate depends also on the ecological setting in which the model is applied. As an extension, Chapter 2 modifies the model from the first chapter to include spatially explicit distance costs. The explicit distance costs are derived from geographic information systems data and tools. Results of a comparative analysis across model specifications are driven by the ecological setting, the correlation between the distance costs and the ecology, and the levels of travel price endogeneity. The analysis suggests that the precision of welfare estimates can improve through inclusion of spatially explicit details in both the economic and environmental systems. As an extension, Chapter 2 modifies the model from the first chapter to include spatially explicit distance costs. The explicit distance costs are derived from geographic information systems data and tools. Results of a comparative analysis across model specifications are driven by the ecological setting, the correlation between the distance costs and the ecology, and the levels of travel price endogeneity. The analysis suggests that the precision of welfare estimates can improve through inclusion of spatially explicit details in both the economic and environmental systems. Biological policy data is estimated from the Atlantis ecosystem model using a simulated approach. Comparing the policy results of the two ecological settings illustrates the potential for unintended policy consequences and the importance of including ecosystem characteristics in policy assessment.