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Essays on Over-the-counter Markets

Essays on Over-the-counter Markets
Author: Zhuo Zhong
Publisher:
Total Pages: 181
Release: 2014
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ISBN:
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This dissertation consists of three essays studying on over-the-counter trading (OTC henceforth). In Chapter 1, I model the formation of the inter-dealer network in an OTC market, and study how the network affects prices and volumes in the market. The model explains the empirically observed core-periphery network with dealers' capacity of providing liquidity. Specifically, dealers with large capacity comprise the core of the network, connecting them to all other dealers, while dealers who have small capacity operate at the periphery. In addition, my model matches the empirical finding on the negative relation between markups and order sizes. Furthermore, I show that there may be structural breaks in this negative relationship as variations in order sizes may alter the inter-dealer network. These results suggest that empirical studies on OTC markets should control for the stability of an inter-dealer network to avoid model misspecification. Chapter 2 evaluates how a centralized market could provide an incentive for OTC dealers to reduce opacity in trading. In this chapter, opacity is modeled as Knightian uncertainty faced by investors. I find that while a competitive centralized market provides an incentive for dealers to reduce opacity in an OTC market, a noncompetitive centralized market does the opposite. Competition between the competitive centralized market and the OTC market forces dealers in the latter to reduce opacity. With the noncompetitive centralized market, opportunities for collusion provide an incentive for dealers to increase opacity. Dealers do not have the incentive to reduce opacity in this case. In Chapter 3, we test the model implications in Chapter 2 with an empirical study on the corporate bond markets, and find consistent results. We find that transaction costs of bonds traded only in OTC markets are significantly different from (10 basis points larger than) bonds traded both in OTC markets and the NYSE market. Since the latter contains pre-trade information from the NYSE market, this finding suggests that pre-trade transparency reduces bonds' trading costs. This result implies that pre-trade transparency benefits investors but hurts dealers, as the major part of dealers' profits comes from investors' trading costs. We also find that pre-trade transparency increases bonds' values. Bonds with the NYSE pre-trade transparency have significantly lower bond yields than bonds without the pre-trade transparency. Our findings are robust to endogeneity of firms' bond listing decisions on the NYSE.

Essays in Over-the-counter Markets

Essays in Over-the-counter Markets
Author: Yu An
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
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This thesis consists of three essays, which examine several issues in over-the-counter financial markets. The first essay shows that dealers build socially excessive inventories in order to compete for market share. The distortion in pricing is empirically identified using transaction level data in the U.S. corporate bond market. The second essay shows that the two roles of a dealer, immediacy provision and matchmaking, create a conflict of interest. A direct implication is that bid-ask spread is a misleading measure of immediacy provision. The third essay introduces reducible intermediation chains in order to quantitatively measure search frictions in over-the-counter markets. This allows us to categorize intermediation chains by their primary intermediation incentives. Specifically, the first essay shows that dealers in over-the-counter markets build socially excessive inventories in order to compete for market share and get the associated intermediation rents. Using the TRACE dataset for the U.S. corporate bond market, I find that, excluding the crisis, the incentive to build inventory raises dealers' bid prices for corporate bonds by an average of 5 basis points. During the crisis, this effect was reversed by 23 basis points of implied additional dealer balance-sheet costs. The second essay, co-authored with Zeyu Zheng, shows that the two roles of a dealer, immediacy provision and matchmaking, create a conflict of interest that leads dealers to hold inefficiently high levels of inventory in order to extract additional rents from customers. Because of this, bid-ask spread is a misleading measure of immediacy provision. Our model suggests the use of execution delays as an additional measure of immediacy provision. The third essay, co-authored with Yang Song and Xingtan Zhang, introduces reducible intermediation chains in order to quantitatively measure search frictions in over-the-counter markets. This allows us to categorize intermediation chains by their primary intermediation incentives. Using interdealer trades in the U.S. corporate bond market, we discover new types of intermediation chains that are not formed to mitigate search frictions or to facilitate liquidity provision. Instead, these chains arise when dealers intermediate trades for other dealers in order to unwind positions at a profit.

Essays on Over-the-Counter Financial Markets

Essays on Over-the-Counter Financial Markets
Author: Shuo Liu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 215
Release: 2020
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ISBN:
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This dissertation consists of three chapters that study dealer's endogenous search effort in over-the-counter (OTC) financial markets and its effect on asset's liquidity risk in U.S. corporate bond markets. In Chapter 1, I study dealer's search intensity using a transaction-level data set on U.S. corporate bonds. The main target of this chapter is to test whether dealer's search intensity is endogenously determined by their idiosyncratic states and how search intensity affects market efficiency. Existing literatures commonly do not consider dealer's continuous adjustment of search intensity in search-and-match models and there is no paper using transaction-level data to estimate the dealer-level state-dependent search intensity. In this paper, I propose a search-and-match model with dealers' endogeneous and state-dependent search intensity and estimate it using the TRACE data for the U.S. corporate bond market. I find that: [1] if we rank all dealers by their private valuations for holding the bond, the dealer of the middle-level private valuation will choose the highest level of search intensity, and she works as the "dealer of dealers" to reallocate bond positions from the low-type dealers to the high-type dealers; [2] the estimated model gives us a quantitative evaluation of the inefficiency due to the decentralized market structure. At the average level across all sub-markets in our sample, the model estimates that dealers' search cost is 0.75% of bond's face value, and there is on average 8.64% of bond positions being misallocated, comparing with a counterfactual frictionless market. In conclusion, the decentralized market structure generates 8.96% welfare loss relative to the frictionless one. In Chapter 2, I study the correlation between corporate bond's misallocation among dealers and liquidity risk. This chapter bridges the literature on search-and-match models and the literature on explaining the non-default component of corporate bond's credit spread variations. In this paper, I propose a measure of bond's misallocation among dealers. This measure is based on a structural search-and-match model, and is defined as the cross-sectional covariance of dealers' idiosyncratic private valuations for holding the bond and their actual inventory positions in the bond. Using the TRACE data for the U.S. corporate bond market, I construct a panel data which contains yearly series of empirical estimates of bond's misallocation and liquidity risk, and verify that: at the bond level, a higher magnitude of misallocation among the dealers is associated with a higher magnitude of liquidity risk. This finding gives a preliminary market microstructural evidence supporting that: the distribution of market maker's states correlates with the magnitude of asset's liquidity risk. In Chapter 3, I theoretically study the social optimal policy function of dealer's meeting technology in over-the-counter markets. This chapter contributes to the existing literature by considering the dealer-level state-dependent meeting technology in a random search model and obtaining explicit-form solutions of the social optimal policy functions. In the model, I allow the agents (dealers) to freely adjust their meeting technologies based on two types of idiosyncratic states: asset position and liquidity need. I find that in the social optimal policy functions, there is no intermediation in the sense that no dealer will choose to search simultaneously on both the buy side and sell side of the market. This result applies for a general form of search-cost function.

Essays on Information and Market Design

Essays on Information and Market Design
Author: Ji Hee Yoon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 202
Release: 2018
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ISBN:
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I study the design of markets and the performance of various trading mechanisms with respect to efficiency and information aggregation. Endogenous Market Structure: Over-the-Counter versus Exchange Trading For many assets, traders favor either over-the-counter (OTC) or centralized markets. This paper examines how traders' choices between these trading venues depend on asset and trader characteristics. A trader's incentive to choose an OTC market depends on the benefit of learning his asset value and the cost due to price impacts. Traders choose OTC markets over centralized exchanges when the asset values are heterogeneously interdependent and traders' private information is sufficiently inaccurate. Market structures are endogenously determined by traders' individual market choices. This paper provides comparative statics of equilibrium market structures. The OTC and centralized market coexist only when traders are asymmetric. Furthermore, the OTC market decreases information efficiency by being conducive to trade only between informed traders. Uncontingent Trading and Exchange Design (with M. Rostek) In many markets, a trader's demand for each asset is contingent on the price of that asset alone rather than on the price of all assets he trades. This paper examines a uniform-price double auction with arbitrary restrictions on cross-asset conditioning, including contingent demand schedules (demands for each asset condition on the price vector) and uncontingent schedules (demand of each asset conditions on the price of that asset). In contrast to markets with contingent schedules, a trader optimizes with respect to a directional derivative rather than asset-by-asset. A trader's best response itself is determined by a fixed point between his first-order condition and the directional derivative. We characterize equilibrium in markets with limited cross-asset conditioning and examine the welfare effects of conditioning restrictions. If suitably designed, markets with limited demand conditioning are always at least as efficient as markets with contingent demands. Creating multiple exchanges for the same assets is generally not redundant for welfare even if all traders participate in all exchanges. Inference Design (with M. Rostek) This paper examines how market design can be used to induce the desired informational properties of prices and accomplish revenue or efficiency objectives. A model of double auction with quasilinear-quadratic utilities is introduced that allows for arbitrary Gaussian information structures, and in particular allows for heterogeneity in interdependence of trader values. With heterogeneous interdependence, some traders learn more from prices whereas others from private signals; thus, centralized market clearing can isolate informed trading from uninformed trading (learning from signals versus learning from prices). Changes in the information structure can enhance both learning from prices and private signals for all traders; changes that lower price informativeness for some market participants may improve the price informativeness of other agents. We characterize conditions on the information structure for price and signal inference to involve no tradeoff.

Essays on Applied Mircoeconomics and Finance

Essays on Applied Mircoeconomics and Finance
Author: Fei Song (Ph. D.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 262
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:
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This dissertation consists of four chapters. Chapter 1 studies the effect of online review manipulations on review systems. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are co-authored with Ali Kakhbod and focus on post-trade transparency in dynamic over-the-counter markets. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Umut Dur, Parag A. Pathak and Tayfun Sönmez and studies the effect of the Taiwan mechanism, a mechanism that allocates high school seats to applicants. Chapter 1 shows that the conventional impression holds in the short-run that review manipulation makes review systems less informative. In the long-run, however., a manipulated review system can contain the same level of information as an un-manipulated counterpart. I develop a dynamic programming model with fixed product quality and naive buyers who are unaware of manipulation. I then extend it to consider endogenous product quality and sophisticated buyers. I also identify an unexpected effect of a policy to target sellers and check for manipulation. Chapter 2 studies how mandatory transparency (through TRACE), along with the long-term incentive of informed dealers, affects market price informativeness, liquidity and welfare in dynamic over-the-counter (OTC) markets. We show that the public disclosure of additional information about past trades, paradoxically, makes the markets more opaque, by reducing the market price informativeness. Thus, surprisingly, transparency requirements such as U.S. Dodd-Frank Act may make markets more opaque. However, this market opacity creates liquidity and increases welfare. To enhance financial transparency and improve the price informativeness as well as the market liquidity and welfare, an effective approach is to randomly audit dealers. Chapter 3 then studies how public disclosure of past trade details affects price discovery dynamics under asymmetric information with heterogenous hedging motives. We model that an informed buyer (informed trader) sequentially trades with a series of uninformed sellers (hedgers). The informed buyer is forward-looking and risk-neutral, and uninformed sellers are myopic and heterogeneously risk-averse. We discover that sellers' price discovery over the underlying fundamentals is crucially affected by what they can observe about past trade details. Specifically, (i) post-trade price transparency delays price discovery, but once it happens, it is always perfect. (ii) In contrast, when only past order information is available, price discovery can never be perfect, and can even be in the wrong direction. (iii) The availability of past trade details, paradoxically, makes it easier for the informed buyer to hide her private information and offer opaque prices. We establish that, under some minor regularity conditions, our equilibrium characterization achieves the maximal degree of ignorance among all pure-strategy PBE. Hence, this chapter can be viewed as a worst case analysis for regulators who care about market transparency. Moreover, we show that our findings are robust when the informed party's bargaining power decreases along the length of past trade history. Finally, we extend our results to the case where the informed buyer has a non-zero outside option, and the case where both parties switch their trading positions. Chapter 4 analyzes the properties of the Taiwan mechanism, used for high school placement nationwide starting in 2014. In the Taiwan mechanism, points are deducted from an applicant's score with larger penalties for lower ranked choices. Deduction makes the mechanism a new hybrid between the well-known Boston and deferred acceptance mechanisms. Our analysis sheds light on why Taiwan's new mechanism has led to massive nationwide demonstrations and why it nonetheless still remains in use.