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Essays in Macroeconomics, Financial Markets, and Epidemics

Essays in Macroeconomics, Financial Markets, and Epidemics
Author: Cesar Saturnino Salinas Depaz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2024
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:

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This dissertation consists of three chapters about how access to financial markets and composition of the labor market determine aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. The first chapter examines the macroeconomic consequences of credit uncertainty using a structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (SVAR-SV). Credit supply conditions in the U.S. is captured by the banks' reports on how credit standards for approving loans have change over time (Bank Lending Standards). The empirical analysis shows that the volatility of macroeconomic and financial variables rises in response to an increase in the credit uncertainty shock. The economic activity falls and credit growth and related interest rates decrease persistently. Moreover, credit volatility shocks explain around 10% of the FEV of endogenous variables. A dissagregated analysis shows that the effect of these shocks are mainly explained by their effects on the corporate business sector. The second chapter studies the role of time-varying credit limits through the lens of a life cycle incomplete markets model calibrated for the U.S. Changes in credit card limits are explained by observable household characteristics and the estimated unobservable variation is quite large. The quantitative exercise shows that even though young households are more indebted in an economy with stochastic borrowing limits, aggregate consumption is not greatly affected by transitory or persistent shocks of this type. However, in the presence of these shocks, households lose the ability to self-insure against other uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, e.g., labor income shocks. A disaggregated analysis shows that the loss of self-insurance capacity is mainly explained by the effects that stochastic borrowing limits have on the wealth distribution, the precautionary savings channel households have to face unexpected risks. The third chapter studies the role of informal markets to explain economic and demographic variables during a pandemic. The quantitative exercise shows that lockdown policies are less effective in economies with large informal markets, infection and death rates will not decrease as much as formal economies. Moreover, the size of the recession would be exacerbated because informal activities are not counted in the calculation of the GDP. To generate similar results to an economy with only formal markets, the economy with informal markets must implement more severe containment policies.


Research on Pandemics

Research on Pandemics
Author: Yezhou Sha
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 306
Release: 2021-11-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000483614

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The lasting turmoil associated with the unprecedented pandemic, triggered by the novel corona virus COVID-19, has dragged the world into a mud of uncertainty. Fiscal stimulation, interest rate cuts, global supply-chain redeployment, "pandemic bond" and circuit breakers kicked in and the world is responding to this great challenge. But how can finance and economic research help the world under such circumstances? This book dwells on this new area of research and tries to understand how pandemics impact the economic and financial ecosystem of both emerging and advanced economies. Lessons learnt from the experience of previous pandemics maybe presented and discussed through drawing on policy lessons to date. By gathering research on political economy, geopolitical issues, behavioral finance, international institutional responses and medical and health issues resulting from pandemics, the chapters in this edited volume help in expanding the knowledge of social and economic consequences of the pandemic as well as set the foundation for future research. This book would benefit scholars, policy makers and entrepreneurs worldwide as a valuable archive of research on pandemics. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.


Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age

Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age
Author: Monica de Bolle
Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Total Pages: 149
Release: 2021-04-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0881327425

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The global health and economic threats from the COVID-19 pandemic are not yet behind us. While the development of multiple safe and highly effective vaccines in less than a year is cause for hope, several significant dangers to recovery of global health and income are still clear and present: New concerning variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, continue to emerge at an alarming rate in different parts of the world; at the same time, vaccine rollouts have been shockingly inefficient even in some rich countries, while much of the developing world waits in line behind them for vaccines to arrive. The Briefing covers several policy areas in which cooperative forward-looking policy action will materially improve our chances of truly escaping today's pandemic and making future pandemics less costly.


The Great Demographic Reversal

The Great Demographic Reversal
Author: Charles Goodhart
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 260
Release: 2020-08-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030426572

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This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.


Essays in Economics

Essays in Economics
Author: James Tobin
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 550
Release: 1987
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262200622

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These 28 essays, covering Tobin's work in macroeconomics from the early 1940s to 1970 are grouped into three parts - macroeconomic theory, economic growth, and money and finance.


Shutdown

Shutdown
Author: Adam Tooze
Publisher: Penguin
Total Pages: 369
Release: 2021-09-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0593297555

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"This book’s great service is that it challenges us to consider the ways in which our institutions and systems, and the assumptions, positions and divisions that undergird them, leave us ill prepared for the next crisis."—Robert Rubin, The New York Times Book Review "Full of valuable insight and telling details, this may well be the best thing to read if you want to know what happened in 2020." --Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books Deftly weaving finance, politics, business, and the global human experience into one tight narrative, a tour-de-force account of 2020, the year that changed everything--from the acclaimed author of Crashed. The shocks of 2020 have been great and small, disrupting the world economy, international relations and the daily lives of virtually everyone on the planet. Never before has the entire world economy contracted by 20 percent in a matter of weeks nor in the historic record of modern capitalism has there been a moment in which 95 percent of the world's economies were suffering all at the same time. Across the world hundreds of millions have lost their jobs. And over it all looms the specter of pandemic, and death. Adam Tooze, whose last book was universally lauded for guiding us coherently through the chaos of the 2008 crash, now brings his bravura analytical and narrative skills to a panoramic and synthetic overview of our current crisis. By focusing on finance and business, he sets the pandemic story in a frame that casts a sobering new light on how unprepared the world was to fight the crisis, and how deep the ruptures in our way of living and doing business are. The virus has attacked the economy with as much ferocity as it has our health, and there is no vaccine arriving to address that. Tooze's special gift is to show how social organization, political interests, and economic policy interact with devastating human consequences, from your local hospital to the World Bank. He moves fluidly from the impact of currency fluctuations to the decimation of institutions--such as health-care systems, schools, and social services--in the name of efficiency. He starkly analyzes what happened when the pandemic collided with domestic politics (China's party conferences; the American elections), what the unintended consequences of the vaccine race might be, and the role climate change played in the pandemic. Finally, he proves how no unilateral declaration of 'independence" or isolation can extricate any modern country from the global web of travel, goods, services, and finance.


The Economics of World War I

The Economics of World War I
Author: Stephen Broadberry
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 363
Release: 2005-09-29
Genre: History
ISBN: 1139448358

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This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.


The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy

The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy
Author: Mervyn King
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Total Pages: 214
Release: 2016-03-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0393247031

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“Mervyn King may well have written the most important book to come out of the financial crisis. Agree or disagree, King’s visionary ideas deserve the attention of everyone from economics students to heads of state.” —Lawrence H. Summers Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his ten years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance. The Industrial Revolution built the foundation of our modern capitalist age. Yet the flowering of technological innovations during that dynamic period relied on the widespread adoption of two much older ideas: the creation of paper money and the invention of banks that issued credit. We take these systems for granted today, yet at their core both ideas were revolutionary and almost magical. Common paper became as precious as gold, and risky long-term loans were transformed into safe short-term bank deposits. As King argues, this is financial alchemy—the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Faith in these powers has led to huge benefits; the liquidity they create has fueled economic growth for two centuries now. However, they have also produced an unending string of economic disasters, from hyperinflations to banking collapses to the recent global recession and current stagnation. How do we reconcile the potent strengths of these ideas with their inherent weaknesses? King draws on his unique experience to present fresh interpretations of these economic forces and to point the way forward for the global economy. His bold solutions cut through current overstuffed and needlessly complex legislation to provide a clear path to durable prosperity and the end of overreliance on the alchemy of our financial ancestors.


Pandemic Economics

Pandemic Economics
Author: Thomas R. Sadler
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 319
Release: 2021-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000411354

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Pandemic Economics applies economic theory to the Covid-19 era, exploring the micro and macro dimensions of the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic phases. Using core economic tools such as marginal analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and opportunity cost, this book explores the breadth of economic outcomes from the pandemic. It shows that a tradeoff between public health and economic health led to widespread problems, including virus infections and unemployment. Taking an international and comparative approach, the book shows that because countries implemented different economic policies, interventions, and timelines during the crisis, outcomes varied with respect to the extent of recession, process of recovery, availability of medical equipment, public health, and additional waves of the virus. Pedagogical features are weaved throughout the text, including country case studies, key terms, suggested further reading, and discussion questions for solo or group study. On top of this, the book offers online supplements comprising PowerPoint slides, test questions, extra case studies, and an instructor guide. This textbook will be a valuable resource for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate courses on pandemic economics, macroeconomics, health economics, public policy, and related areas.


Capital Failure

Capital Failure
Author: Nicholas Morris
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 433
Release: 2014
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198712227

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Argues that the trust-intensive nature of the financial services industry makes it essential to rebuild trustworthiness in the provision of financial services. It considers the lack of trust that emerged following deregulation of the financial sector and examines what is needed to rebuild trustworthiness.