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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures
Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2015-03-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262028891

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Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan


New Energy, New Geopolitics

New Energy, New Geopolitics
Author: Sarah O. Ladislaw
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 65
Release: 2015-05-15
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1442228369

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This report evaluates the energy and geopolitical shifts that have arisen from the production of shale gas and light tight oil in the United States. It begins by assessing how much the unconventional energy trend has already impacted energy, geopolitics, and national security. The report then posits several possible energy futures that could emerge from the unconventionals revolution. Finally, it offers views on the major geostrategic question: how will the United States seek to utilize this, so far, domestic resource trend, and given the range of potential future energy outcomes, what might the geopolitical and national security implications be. This report pairs with three background reports, all available from Rowman & Littlefield: New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 1: Energy Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 2: Geopolitical and National Security Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 3: Scenarios, Strategies, and Pathways


Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures
Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 245
Release: 2015-04-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262328739

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Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.


The New Energy Crisis

The New Energy Crisis
Author: Jean-Marie Chevalier
Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2009-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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The New Energy Crisis comes from the recent intrusion of climate change issues into energy economics and geopolitics. Global warming suddenly reveals that the current evolution of the world energy consumption is on an unsustainable path. This book explores economic and geopolitical tensions and reinforces ways to overcome the crisis.


Europe’s Energy Transition

Europe’s Energy Transition
Author: Manuel Welsch
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2017-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128099038

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Europe’s Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making looks at the availability and cost of accessing energy and how it significantly affects economic growth and competitiveness in global markets. The results in this book, from a European Commission (EC) financed project by INSIGHT_E, provide an overview of the most recent analyses, focusing on energy markets and their implications for society. Designed to inform European policymaking, elements of this book will be integrated into upcoming EC policies, giving readers invaluable insights into the cost and availability of energy, the effect of price increases affecting vulnerable consumer groups, and current topics of interest to the EC and ongoing energy debate. INSIGHT_E provides decision-makers with unbiased policy advice and insights on the latest developments, including an assessment of their potential impact. Presents answers to strategic questions posed by the European Commission Coherently assesses the energy transition, from policies to energy supply, markets, system requirements, and consumer needs Informed the EC "Clean Energy for All Europeans" package from end of 2016, e.g., regarding aspects of energy poverty Endorsed by thought leaders from within and outside of Europe, including utilities, energy agencies, research institutes, journal editors, think tanks, and the European Commission


The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition

The Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition
Author: Manfred Hafner
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 398
Release: 2020-06-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3030390667

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The world is currently undergoing an historic energy transition, driven by increasingly stringent decarbonisation policies and rapid advances in low-carbon technologies. The large-scale shift to low-carbon energy is disrupting the global energy system, impacting whole economies, and changing the political dynamics within and between countries. This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. The first part of the book addresses the geopolitical implications in the world’s main energy-producing and energy-consuming regions, while the second presents in-depth case studies on selected issues, ranging from the geopolitics of renewable energy, to the mineral foundations of the global energy transformation, to governance issues in connection with the changing global energy order. Given its scope, the book will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations, as well as to professionals working in the energy industry.


Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2021-03
Genre:
ISBN: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.


The geopolitics of energy

The geopolitics of energy
Author:
Publisher: Editions OPHRYS
Total Pages: 312
Release:
Genre:
ISBN: 2710811456

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The Prologue

The Prologue
Author: Alexander V. Mirtchev
Publisher: Post Hill Press
Total Pages: 319
Release: 2021-03-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1642935549

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This is not another alternative energy study. Rather, The Prologue identifies and charts the security-related trajectory of a relatively new global phenomenon: the ascent of alternative energy as a 21st century megatrend. Why and how have contemporary alternative energy developments evolved into a 21st century global socio-political and techno-economic megatrend? What are the security implications of this megatrend? And what does the megatrend’s evolution reveal about upcoming geopolitical, energy, defense, environmental, and economic security challenges? This book endeavors to answer these questions by establishing the conceptual framework of a universally securitized world in which mutually interacting threats have expanded the needs and security considerations of today’s globalized and interdependent actors, including states, international organizations, multinational corporations, and political and social movements. “Alexander Mirtchev’s sweeping exploration of the changing energy landscape looks far into the future and outlines issues that will occupy scholars and policymakers for decades to come.”—The Hon. Henry Kissinger, Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor “With the advancements in alternative energy technology at the beginning of the 21st century, energy security thinking and planning will never be the same—Alexander Mirtchev’s profoundly original book reveals these new dilemmas that will challenge policymakers in all major economies and provides for dealing with the new realities in a smart way.”—The Hon. Judge William H. Webster, Chairman, Homeland Security Advisory Council, Former Director of the CIA and FBI


International Energy Outlook

International Energy Outlook
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 248
Release: 1986
Genre: Energy consumption
ISBN:

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