Empirical Analysis Of Risks To The West African Monetary Zone Wamz PDF Download

Since the inception of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 1975, the founding members have aimed to introduce a single regional currency as a mechanism to achieve continued economic integration, sustainable economic expansion and poverty reduction. This paper empirically assesses the feasibility of the proposed West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) as an optimum currency area by considering potential benefits and costs of the union using the Gravity Model of Trade and Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis respectively. To perform the assessment, I first employ the Gravity Model of Trade to analyze the trade-creating benefits of adopting a common currency by evaluating the effect of currency risk on bilateral trade flows. I find that currency risk is not a significant trade barrier. Then, I perform a VAR analysis to understand the symmetry of shock responses across the proposed union and discover that both supply and demand shocks are generally asymmetric. This finding indicates that the retention of monetary policy autonomy by member countries will be more beneficial than joining the proposed currency union. The results of both analyses indicate that the proposed monetary zone is not an optimal currency area. Finally, I employ a K-means clustering algorithm to derive a statistically driven cluster of countries best suited to form an optimal currency area in West Africa and find three optimal clusters.