Economic Impacts Of Covid 19 Pandemic In Ethiopia A Review Of Phone Survey Evidence PDF Download
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Author | : Hirvonen, Kalle |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 15 |
Release | : 2020-08-24 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download Economic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia: A review of phone survey evidence Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
As in most low and middle-income countries, the paucity of timely economic data in Ethiopia makes it difficult to understand the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To mitigate this, several organizations have launched phone surveys to gather more information about the crisis. This research report reviews the available phone survey evidence as of mid-August 2020 and identifies knowledge gaps. First, the available evidence suggest that the pandemic has not led to unusually large increases in food prices. However, a case study in the vegetable sector suggests that price dynamics are highly context and crop specific, calling for more comprehensive price monitoring to identify food value chains and areas where food price increases may have been unusually rapid. Second, employment losses have concentrated on informal sector workers while redundancies in the formal sector have been less significant. Third, there is considerable uncertainty about the income, poverty, and food security implications of this crisis. While most households report income losses, the qualitative and subjective nature of these questions meanthat the magnitudes of these losses are unknown. In Addis Ababa, less subjective food security measures indicate only small negative changes in household food and nutrition security. Finally, due to limited access to mobile phones in rural areas, we have imperfect and incomplete information on how this crisis is affecting rural households.
Author | : Aragie, Emerta |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 24 |
Release | : 2020-12-09 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download Assessing the short-term impacts of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy: External and domestic shocks and pace of recovery Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.
Author | : Christina Wieser |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2021 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Households in Ethiopia, Report No. 8 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic and social effects on households have created an urgent need for timely data to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis and protect the welfare of the least well-off Ethiopians. To track how the pandemic is affecting Ethiopia's economy and its population and to inform interventions and policy responses, the World Bank is conducting a high-frequency phone survey of households (HFPS-HH). The HFPS-HH tracks households with access to a phone, with selected respondents, typically household heads, completing phone-based interviews every month.
Author | : Girum Abebe |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2020 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Firms in Ethiopia, Report No. 2 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its negative economic effects create an urgent need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis and protect the welfare of the least well-off in Ethiopia's society. To monitor the impacts of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on Ethiopia's economy and people and inform interventions and policy responses, the World Bank Ethiopia team, in collaboration with the government, designed and implemented two high-frequency phone surveys, one with firms and one with households.
Author | : Abay, Kibrom A. |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2020-11-11 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download COVID-19 and food security in Ethiopia: Do social protection programs protect? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.
Author | : Aragie, Emerta |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 17 |
Release | : 2020-12-09 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download The short-term impact of COVID-19 on Ethiopia’s economy through external sector channels: An economywide multiplier model analysis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to considerably affect the Ethiopian economy directly and indirectly due to global shocks and to the different restrictive preventative measures the country is taking. We analyze these economic effects using multisector economywide income multiplier models built on the two latest Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed for Ethiopia. Three external sector channels are the focus of the analysis: commodity exports, strategic imports, and remittances. Results indicate that in the absence of any policy responses, the Ethiopian economy is expected to experience a loss of approximately 4.3 to 5.5 percent of its annual GDP due to exports, strategic imports, and remittances that are one-third lower relative to the no-COVID situation over a period of six-months. This translates into estimated reductions in labor income of between 4.2 and 5.2 percent. The SAM multiplier model estimates also imply that these negative shocks lead to household income losses that amount to between 3.9 and 6.4 percent. In particular, the urban poor will be the most affected as they lose real incomes in the range of 6.6 to 8.5 percent. These income losses are estimated to result in a 3.5 percentage point rise in the national poverty headcount.
Author | : Alderman, Harold |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 10 |
Release | : 2020-08-21 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download Short-term evidence on wellbeing of rural Ethiopian households during the COVID-19 pandemic Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In Ethiopia, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, the first known case of coronavirus arrived in mid-March (on March 13, 2020), weeks after the pandemic had spread rapidly in parts of Europe and the United States. The government swiftly imposed restrictions to slow the spread of the virus, closing schools (on March 16, 2020), limiting travel and encouraging people to remain at home. Such restrictions were needed to keep the pandemic from overwhelming a healthcare system with limited capacity to respond to an infectious disease outbreak. Only limited information is available about the effect of these restrictions on economic activity, food security and livelihoods in Ethiopia. A survey of residents of Addis Ababa conducted in May 2020 found that more than half of households reported lower-than-expected incomes and more than one third were extremely stressed about the situation. These results further showed that poorer households were more severely affected, although the food security situation in Addis, while declining, was not yet dire.
Author | : Alemayehu A. Ambel |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2020 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Households in Ethiopia Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic and social effects on households have created an urgent need for timely data to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis and protect the welfare of the least well-off in Ethiopian society. To monitor how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting Ethiopia's economy and people and to inform interventions and policy responses, the World Bank designed and conducted its High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households (HFPS-HH).
Author | : Girum Abebe |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2020 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Firms in Ethiopia, Report No. 6 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its negative economic effects create a need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis. To monitor the impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and related containment measures on formal firms in Ethiopia and inform the policy response, the World Bank, in collaboration with the government, is implementing a high-frequency phone survey of firms (HFPS-F). The HFPS-F interviews a sample of firms in Addis Ababa every three weeks for a total of eight survey rounds, and an additional sample of firms in four other cities in Ethiopia (Adama, Bahir Dar, Hawassa, and Mekelle) for a total of seven rounds. This high-frequency follow-up allows for a better understanding of the effects of and responses to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on firm operations, hiring and firing, and expectations of future operations and labor demand in order to better tailor and implement interventions and policy responses and monitor their effects.
Author | : Alderman, Harold |
Publisher | : Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 2021-12-29 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download Evidence on trends in wellbeing of rural Ethiopian households during the COVID-19 pandemic Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a significant threat to public health throughout most of the world as the coronavirus continues to spread, mostly unchecked by limited availability of vaccines, and largescale surges in cases are fed by new variants of the virus. In Ethiopia, surges in COVID-19 cases after months of apparently low levels of infection have periodically required renewed restrictions locally to control the spread of the virus. Thus, it is necessary to review available date to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on households in Ethiopia, and particularly on the poorest households, who are more vulnerable to protracted effects of the virus and associated restrictions on activity as a result of their limited resources. We present results of two rounds of a phone survey, conducted in June and August 2020, respectively, of around 1,200 rural households. All households in the sample are beneficiaries of the fourth phase of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP4) and also participate in the USAID-funded Strengthening PSNP4 Institutions and Resilience (SPIR) project, implemented by World Vision, CARE and ORDA in North Wollo and Wag Himra zones in Amhara, and primarily in East and West Hararghe zones in Oromia. The targeted phone survey respondents were adult males from sample households in IFPRI’s experimental impact evaluation of SPIR who provided a phone number during the 2019 midline survey. This is a subsample of the broader SPIR evaluation sample as 33% of households provided a phone number and thus were eligible for inclusion in the phone survey. Available evidence suggests that households who provided a phone number are characterized by higher socioeconomic status vis-à-vis other SPIR households in the study sample who did not provide a phone number. However, as all households in the phone survey are SPIR beneficiaries, they are still relatively poor in the broader context of rural Ethiopia. We report evidence from the two survey rounds on coronavirus awareness and protective measures taken; changes in livelihoods, including crop production and livestock raising; access to and utilization of markets; changes in food consumption and food security; experience with desert locusts and fall armyworms; and exposure to public programming.