Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China
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Author | : Robert J. Barro |
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Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2016 |
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From the perspective of conditional convergence, China's GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3-4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergence success story, grouped with Costa Rica, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand and Uruguay. Upper-income convergence successes (toward which China is likely heading) include Chile, Hong Kong, Ireland, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
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Author | : Robert J. Barro |
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Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : Convergence (Economics) |
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Author | : Min Zhu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2019-11-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513515357 |
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Author | : Jong-Wha Lee |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2016 |
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This study explores China's economic growth performance and prospects in global and Asian comparative perspectives. Using a general framework of cross-country analysis, the study identifies and discusses major factors underlying China's strong growth over the past decades and those contributing to its recent growth slowdown. The study also adopts detailed industry-level data to assess structural changes and sectoral growth in the Chinese economy. China's low initial per capita income relative to its own long-run potential provided the opportunity for faster capital accumulation and technology diffusion. Good policy and institution factors, such as a high investment rate, strong human capital, high trade openness, and improved institutions, guided the economy to realize its strong potential for convergence to advanced economy income level. China's average potential GDP growth will decline significantly over the coming decade due to convergence effect and structural problems, unless China substantially upgrades institutions and policy factors and improves productivity, particularly in its services sector.
Author | : John Knight |
Publisher | : OUP Oxford |
Total Pages | : 368 |
Release | : 2012-04-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0199698694 |
China's economy has been growing at ten per cent per annum for the last three decades. This book considers one of the biggest questions facing contemporary economists: why and how is the Chinese economy growing so fast?
Author | : Yanrui Wu |
Publisher | : World Scientific |
Total Pages | : 174 |
Release | : 2012-01-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9814466611 |
Due to their sheer size and stake in the global economy, China and India have long been identified as the two giant economies of Asia. This book presents a highly engaging comparative study on the economic growth of China and India by examining the significance of the role of productivity in economic growth as well as their relations with regional partners. Through detailed analysis of trade, services, energy and pollution, readers are invited to follow the two distinctive development trajectories taken by the two countries, as well as challenged to consider the issue of sustainability of growth in the future.
Author | : David Dollar |
Publisher | : Brookings Institution Press |
Total Pages | : 444 |
Release | : 2020-06-09 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0815738064 |
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Author | : Clement Allan Tisdell |
Publisher | : Nova Publishers |
Total Pages | : 548 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781560725305 |
Contains updated papers from an international conference held in Brisbane, Australia, centering on China's economic reforms and economic growth, regional issues and property rights in China, environmental issues and land use, and science and technology policies. Specific topics include China's market reforms and its new forms of scientific and business alliances, sustainable land use in the Three-Gorges area, and inter-village income inequality in China. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR