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Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Lifecycle

Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Lifecycle
Author: Philip Jung
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2016
Genre: Job security
ISBN:

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Large and persistent earnings losses following displacement have adverse consequences for the individual worker and the macroeconomy. Leading models cannot explain their size and disagree on the sources. Two mean-reverting forces make earnings losses transitory in these models: search as an upward force allows workers to climb back up the job ladder; and separations as a downward force make non-displaced workers fall down the job ladder. We show that job stability at the top rather than search frictions at the bottom is the main driver of persistent earnings losses. We provide new empirical evidence on job stability and develop a life-cycle search model to explain the facts. Our model offers a quantitative reconciliation of key stylized facts of the U.S. labor market: large worker flows, a large share of stable jobs, and persistent earnings shocks. We explain the size of earnings losses by dampening the downward force. Regarding the sources, we find that over 85% stem from the loss of a particularly good job at the top of the job ladder. We apply the model to study the effectiveness of two labor market policies, retraining and placement support, from the Dislocated Worker Program. We find that both are ineffective in reducing earnings losses in line with the program evaluation literature.


Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement

Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement
Author: Andreas Gulyas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

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We implement a generalized random forest (Athey et al., 2019) to a differencein-difference setting to identify substantial heterogeneity in earnings losses across displaced workers. Using administrative data from Austria over three decades we document that a quarter of workers face cumulative 11-year losses higher than 2 times their pre-displacement annual income, while almost 10% of individuals experience gains. Our methodology allows us to consider many competing theories of earnings losses. We find that the displacement firm's wage premia and the availability of well paying jobs in the local labor market are the two most important factors. This implies that earnings losses can be understood by mean reversion in firm wage premia and losses in match quality, rather than by a destruction of firm-specific human capital. We further show that 94% of the cyclicality of earnings losses is explained by compositional changes of displaced workers over the business cycle.


Lifecycle Events and Their Consequences

Lifecycle Events and Their Consequences
Author: Kenneth A. Couch
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Total Pages: 340
Release: 2013-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0804786437

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In Lifecycle Events and Their Consequences: Job Loss, Family Change, and Declines in Health, editors Kenneth A. Couch, Mary C. Daly, and Julie Zissimopoulos bring together leading scholars to study the impact of unexpected life course events on economic welfare. The contributions in this volume explore how job loss, the onset of health limitations, and changes in household structure can have a pronounced influence on individual and household well-being across the life course. Although these events are typically studied in isolation, they frequently co-occur or are otherwise interrelated. This book provides a systematic empirical overview of these sometimes uncertain events and their impact. By placing them in a unified analytical framework and approaching each of them from a similar perspective, Lifecycle Events and Their Consequences illustrates the importance of a coherent approach to thinking about the inter-relationships among these shifts. Finally, this volume aims to set the future research agenda in this important area.


Earnings Over the Lifecycle

Earnings Over the Lifecycle
Author: S. W. Polachek
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 123
Release: 2008
Genre: Human capital
ISBN: 1601981228

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Earnings over the Lifecycle: The Mincer Earnings Function and Its Applications focuses on the underlying economics behind the Mincer earnings function and its robustness and relevance to policy applications.


Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-cycle Savings

Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-cycle Savings
Author: Moritz Kuhn
Publisher:
Total Pages: 80
Release: 2020
Genre: Employee retention
ISBN:

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Labor markets are characterized by large heterogeneity in job stability. Some workers hold lifetime jobs, whereas others cycle repeatedly in and out of employment. This paper explores the economic consequences of such heterogeneity. Using Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) data, we document a systematic positive relationship between job stability and wealth accumulation. Per dollar of income, workers with more stable careers hold more wealth. We also develop a life-cycle consumption-saving model with heterogeneity in job stability that is jointly consistent with empirical labor market mobility, earnings, consumption, and wealth dynamics. Using the structural model, we explore the consequences of heterogeneity in job stability at the individual and macroeconomic level. At the individual level, we find that a bad start to the labor market leaves long-lasting scars. The income and consumption level for a worker who starts working life from an unstable job is, even 25 years later, 5 percent lower than that of a worker who starts with a stable job. For the macroeconomy, we find welfare gains of 1.6 percent of lifetime consumption for labor market entrants from a secular decline in U.S. labor market dynamism.


The Changing Labor Market

The Changing Labor Market
Author: Stephen M. Hills
Publisher: Free Press
Total Pages: 184
Release: 1986
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Labor Markets and Business Cycles

Labor Markets and Business Cycles
Author: Robert Shimer
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 189
Release: 2010-04-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400835232

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Labor Markets and Business Cycles integrates search and matching theory with the neoclassical growth model to better understand labor market outcomes. Robert Shimer shows analytically and quantitatively that rigid wages are important for explaining the volatile behavior of the unemployment rate in business cycles. The book focuses on the labor wedge that arises when the marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure does not equal the marginal product of labor. According to competitive models of the labor market, the labor wedge should be constant and equal to the labor income tax rate. But in U.S. data, the wedge is strongly countercyclical, making it seem as if recessions are periods when workers are dissuaded from working and firms are dissuaded from hiring because of an increase in the labor income tax rate. When job searches are time consuming and wages are flexible, search frictions--the cost of a job search--act like labor adjustment costs, further exacerbating inconsistencies between the competitive model and data. The book shows that wage rigidities can reconcile the search model with the data, providing a quantitatively more accurate depiction of labor markets, consumption, and investment dynamics. Developing detailed search and matching models, Labor Markets and Business Cycles will be the main reference for those interested in the intersection of labor market dynamics and business cycle research.


Mortality, Mass-layoffs, and Career Outcomes

Mortality, Mass-layoffs, and Career Outcomes
Author: Daniel Sullivan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 88
Release: 2007
Genre: Career development
ISBN:

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This paper uses administrative data on quarterly employment and earnings matched to death records to estimate the effects of job displacement on mortality. We find that job displacement leads to a 15-20% increase in death rates during the following 20 years. If such increases were sustained beyond this period, they would imply a loss in life expectancy of about 1.5 years for a worker displaced at age 40. These results are robust to extensive controls for sorting and selection, and are consistent with estimates of the effects of job loss on mortality pooling displaced workers and stayers that are not affected by selective job displacement. To examine the channels through which mass layoffs raise mortality, we exploit the panel nature of our data -- covering over 15 years of earnings -- to analyze the correlation of long-run career outcomes, such as the mean and standard deviation of earnings, with mortality at the individual and group level, something not possible with typical data sets. Our findings suggest that factors correlated with a decrease in mean earnings and a rise in standard deviation of earnings have the potential to explain an important fraction of the effect of a job displacement on mortality.