Early Warning Systems For Financial Crises PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Early Warning Systems For Financial Crises PDF full book. Access full book title Early Warning Systems For Financial Crises.
| Author | : Asian Development Bank |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 164 |
| Release | : 2005-02-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0230501060 |
Download Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.
| Author | : Qaiser Munir |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |
| ISBN | : 9781466694842 |
Download Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction Through Early Warning Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Addresses the inequity of developed and developing nations from the bottom up through an exploration of current literature, specific case-studies, and data-based recommendations for new crisis indicators. It explores such topics as the Greek debt crisis, electronic banking, and financial crises in developing economies.
| Author | : Morris Goldstein |
| Publisher | : Peterson Institute |
| Total Pages | : 166 |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780881322378 |
Download Assessing Financial Vulnerability Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
| Author | : Jens Michael Rabe |
| Publisher | : diplom.de |
| Total Pages | : 84 |
| Release | : 2000-03-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3832422552 |
Download The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial, economic, and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others, these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed, but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore, the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Introduction1 2.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators4 2.1The Traditional Theory5 2.2Second Generation Models11 2.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition19 2.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory22 3.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators24 3.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises24 3.1.1Cross-Country Regressions26 3.1.2Multivariate Probit Models35 3.1.3The Signals Approach40 3.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises48 4.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice53 5.Conclusion64 Appendix68 Bibliography69
| Author | : Juzhong Zhuang |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 112 |
| Release | : 2004-10-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9789715615143 |
Download Early Warning Systems of Financial Crises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In the wake of currency and banking crises in Latin America, Europe, and Asia, these articles provide a regional early warning system prototype designed to anticipate emerging macroeconomic, financial, and corporate sector vulnerabilities. Current theories and practices in the banking world are reviewed and analyzed with an eye toward which economic variables and indicators must be monitored to prevent further crises. The current banking and currency situations in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are examined and current thinking on how these countries can prevent currency and banking crises is detailed.
| Author | : Mr.Abdul Abiad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 61 |
| Release | : 2003-02-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451845138 |
Download Early Warning Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.
| Author | : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2000-01-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781557758286 |
Download Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
| Author | : Ms. Sally Chen |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 79 |
| Release | : 2021-04-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513582305 |
Download Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
| Author | : Hali J. Edison |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 86 |
| Release | : 2000 |
| Genre | : Financial crises |
| ISBN | : |
Download Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The object of this paper is to develop an operational early warning system (EWS) that can detect financial crises. To achieve this goal the paper analyzes and extends the early warning system developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) that is based on the "signal" approach. This system monitors several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds (or falls below) a threshold, then it is said to issue a "signal" that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. The model does a fairly good job of anticipating some of the crises in 1997/1998, but several weaknesses to the approach are identified. The paper also evaluates how this system can be applied to an individual country. On balance, the results in this paper are mixed, but the results suggest that an early warning system should be thought of as a useful diagnostic tool.
| Author | : Graciela Laura Kaminsky |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 1999-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451858930 |
Download Currency and Banking Crises Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
