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Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Influences

Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Influences
Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine the dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in six Asian-Pacific selected countries of Malaysia, Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia. The monthly data on stock price indices, foreign exchange rates, consumer price index and industrial production index that spans from January 1993 to December 2002 are used. In particular, we focus our analysis on the long run equilibrium and short run multivariate causality between these variables. The results indicate the existing of a long run equilibrium relationship between and among variables in only four countries, i.e., Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Australia. As for short run relationship, all countries except for Hong Kong and Thailand show some interactions. The Hong Kong shows relationship only between exchange rate and stock price while the Thailand reports significant interaction only between output and stock prices. An accurate estimation of the relationship between the economic variables and stock market behaviour enables the investors - both local and foreign to make effective investment decisions. At the same time, for the policy makers, a precise prediction of this type of relationship may help government agencies in designing policies to encourage more capital inflows into the respective countries' capital market.


Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Asia

Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Asia
Author: Fauziah Ifa
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2016-01-04
Genre:
ISBN: 9783659819865

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There are two different and conflicting models to determine the relationship between exchange rate and stock prices. The first model, "Flow-Oriented" states that currency or exchange rate changes affect the competitiveness of a company, which in turn affect the company's revenues or cost of funds and the subsequent impact on the company's stock price. Meanwhile, according to the two models namely "Stock-oriented" which emphasizes the role of capital account transactions stated that the rise in stock returns (rising stock market) would attract capital flows which in turn will increase the domestic money permintaanmata and cause exchange rate to appreciate. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine if there cointegration and causality relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in Asia. The objects of this study are Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, China, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and India with the study period January 2009 to December 2013. Data used are secondary data in the form of monthly data from the foreign exchange market (exchange rate) and capital markets (stock index).


Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics
Author: Seungho Jung
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2021-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1557759677

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We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.


The Economics of Adjustment and Growth

The Economics of Adjustment and Growth
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher: La Editorial, UPR
Total Pages: 794
Release: 2004-09-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780674015784

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This book provides a systematic and coherent framework for understanding the interactions between the micro and macro dimensions of economic adjustment policies; that is, it explores short-run macroeconomic management and structural adjustment policies aimed at promoting economic growth. It emphasizes the importance of structural microeconomic characteristics in the transmission of policy shocks and the response of the economy to adjustment policies. It has particular relevance to the economics of developing countries. The book is directed to economists interested in an overview of the economics of reform; economists in international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank, dealing with development; and economists in developing countries. It is also a text for advanced undergraduate students pursuing a degree in economic policy and management and students in political science and public policy.


International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.


Efficiency and Volatility Dynamics of Bangladesh's Stock Market

Efficiency and Volatility Dynamics of Bangladesh's Stock Market
Author: Md Abu Hasan
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2024-02-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1527569780

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This book contributes to empirical finance by comprehensively analysing an emerging stock market, employing modern econometric techniques. The most central and fascinating area of financial economics is probably the efficiency and volatility of the stock market – however, studies of emerging economies are relatively limited in this area. The rising importance of stock market globalisation has increased interest in emerging markets. This book leads the way for an emerging market perspective, as it explores the issue of efficiency and volatility of the stock market in Bangladesh by employing both univariate and multivariate models, using daily data of past share prices and monthly data of macroeconomic variables and the stock index, respectively. This book offers an understanding of the crucial issues facing developing economies, particularly emerging stock markets with similar characteristics to those of Bangladesh. This book undoubtedly provides valuable information for investors in the stock market, graduate, post-graduate, and PhD students in quantitative financial economics, academics in economics and finance, and policymakers in developing economies.


Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Behavior

Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Behavior
Author: Ford Lumban Gaol
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 449
Release: 2016-09-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498779115

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Social Sciences and Interdisciplinary Behavior contains papers that were originally presented at the 4th International Congress on Interdisciplinary Behavior and Social Science 2015 (ICIBSoS 2015), held 22-23 October 2015 at The Institute of Management, Economics and Finance of the Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Russia and 7-8 November 2015 in Arya Duta Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia. The contributions deal with various interdisciplinary research topics, particularly in the fields of social sciences, education, economics and arts. The papers focus especially on such topics as language, cultural studies, economics, behavior studies, political sciences, media and communication, psychology and human development.


Macroeconomic Variables and Security Prices in India during the Liberalized Period

Macroeconomic Variables and Security Prices in India during the Liberalized Period
Author: Tarak Nath Sahu
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2016-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137492015

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The liberalization and globalization of the Indian economy has made India more vulnerable to macro issues. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in India. The research findings and policy implications discussed here may also be relevant for other emerging economies.


Returns & Volatility of Sectoral Indices of Nifty

Returns & Volatility of Sectoral Indices of Nifty
Author: Dr. T. Peddanna
Publisher: Readworthy
Total Pages: 154
Release:
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9388121392

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"Generally, the fund managers prefer to include Nifty-listed securities in their portfolio, because they are the leading stocks of the nation, using these companies constructed 11 sectors of stock indices. On the whole, the analysis of 12-year data starting from April 2002 to March 2014 established two phases of sectoral indices of Nifty; they are pre and post-recession periods in the light of sub-prime financial crisis that cropped up across the globe during 2008-09. As this study revealed sector-wise return exposure under different economic conditions, it helps investors to diversify their funds to various sectors which give average return to their portfolios and at lower risk element. However, this study is helped in understanding the risk-return relationship between different sectors of Nifty, as well as ARCH and GARCH models to estimate the volatility in the near future in great detail. The direction of the Nifty index is mainly determined by a few sectors in the long run like Bank, Pharma and Capital Goods indices. Finally, this study is enabled the investors to understand the risk and returns of sectoral indices of Nifty to make effective portfolio decisions under different economic conditions to sustain the portfolio with the same objectives till its tenure. This book is useful for Portfolio Managers, Fund Managers, Investment Managers and Policy makers, Academicians, Research scholars; Post graduate students and other commerce and Management students those working on Returns and volatility of stock market indices and securities."