Dominant Currency Pricing And The Global Output Spillovers From Us Dollar Appreciation PDF Download
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| Author | : Georgios Georgiadis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9789289935708 |
Download Dominant-currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from US Dollar Appreciation Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy co-ordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing (PCP) and local-currency pricing (LCP). In the model, under DCP the output spillovers from shocks that appreciate the US dollar multilaterally decline with an economy's export-import US dollar pricing share differential, i.e. the difference between the share of an economy's exports and imports that are priced in the dominant currency. Underlying this prediction is a change in an economy's net exports in response to multilateral changes in the US dollar exchange rate that arises because of differences in the extent to which exports and imports are priced in the dominant currency. We then confront this prediction of DCP with the data in a sample of up to 46 advanced and emerging market economies for the time period from 1995 to 2018. Specifically, controlling for other cross-border transmission channels, we document that consistent with the prediction from DCP the output spillovers from US dollar appreciation correlate negatively with recipient economies' export-import US dollar invoicing share differentials. We document that these findings are robust to considering US demand, US monetary policy and exogenous exchange rate shocks as a trigger of US dollar appreciation, as well as to accounting for the role of commodity trade in US dollar invoicing.
| Author | : Ms.Emine Boz |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 2017-11-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484327977 |
Download Global Trade and the Dollar Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
| Author | : Gustavo Adler |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 46 |
| Release | : 2020-07-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513512153 |
Download Dominant Currencies and External Adjustment Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The extensive use of the US dollar when firms set prices for international trade (dubbed dominant currency pricing) and in their funding (dominant currency financing) has come to the forefront of policy debate, raising questions about how exchange rates work and the benefits of exchange rate flexibility. This Staff Discussion Note documents these features of international trade and finance and explores their implications for how exchange rates can help external rebalancing and buffer macroeconomic shocks.
| Author | : Camila Casas |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 62 |
| Release | : 2017-11-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484330609 |
Download Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
| Author | : Gita Gopinath |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 67 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Global Trade and the Dollar Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.
| Author | : Kenneth W. Clements |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 401 |
| Release | : 2013-01-31 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 110701476X |
Download Currencies, Commodities and Consumption Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.
| Author | : Fernando Eguren Martin |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 12 |
| Release | : 2018 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download The Global Role of the US Dollar and Its Consequences Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The US dollar is widely used in international trade and finance. It is the currency of choice for cross-border bank lending and international debt issuance, particularly for emerging market firms. It is also the dominant invoicing currency for trade transactions between non-US countries. Its global acceptance means that it has achieved 'reserve currency' status, which means that it is widely used as a store of wealth, accounting for more than half of the foreign exchange reserves of central banks and about half of the external assets of non-US countries.These global roles of the US dollar form channels through which changes in its value can have consequences outside US borders. These go beyond the standard effect on bilateral trade flows with the United States.The traditional external trade channel would imply that when the US dollar appreciates against another country's currency, the products of that country become more competitive relative to US products, boosting its exports and output. But if its exports are invoiced in dollars, that gain in competitiveness may not materialise. And if companies have borrowed in dollars, the amount of domestic currency needed to repay that debt will have increased, raising the burden of the debt, and acting as a drag on growth. By contrast, those who hold dollar assets, for example governments with large US dollar reserves, will experience a gain in wealth, which might support spending and hence growth. These various channels mean that it is not straightforward to estimate the impact of an appreciation of the dollar on the output growth of the rest of the world.Excluding the direct effects of what is causing the appreciation in the first place, such as tighter US monetary policy or shifts in investors' risk sentiment, we find empirically that periods of US dollar appreciation are associated with lower real output growth in the rest of the world, both in advanced and emerging market economies. This result is in contrast to the boost that might be expected from the traditional external trade channel. The size of this effect is significant: a 10% US dollar appreciation on average takes 1.5 percentage points off emerging market economies' real output growth.
| Author | : Ronald MacDonald |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 334 |
| Release | : 2005 |
| Genre | : Foreign exchange |
| ISBN | : 1134838220 |
Download Exchange Rate Economics Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
| Author | : Nagwa Riad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 87 |
| Release | : 2012-01-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1463973101 |
Download Changing Patterns of Global Trade Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.
| Author | : Martin Feldstein |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 500 |
| Release | : 2007-12-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0226241807 |
Download International Capital Flows Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
