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Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies
Author: Camila Casas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2017-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484330609
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Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

Dominant Currency Paradigm

Dominant Currency Paradigm
Author: Gita Gopinath
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:
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A handful of currencies, especially the US dollar, play a dominant role in international trade. We survey the active theoretical and empirical literature that documents patterns of currency use in global trade, the implications of dominant currencies for international transmission of shocks, exchange rate pass-through, expenditure switching, and optimal monetary policy. We describe advances in the endogenous currency choice literature including conditions for the emergence and persistence of dominant currency equilibria.

Dominant Currency Paradigm

Dominant Currency Paradigm
Author: Camila Casas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2016
Genre: Exchange rate pass-through
ISBN:
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Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer's currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) terms of trade are stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports and export expansions following depreciations are weak. Using merged firm level and customs data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm and reject the alternatives of producer currency and local currency pricing.

Global Trade and the Dollar

Global Trade and the Dollar
Author: Ms.Emine Boz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2017-11-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148432885X
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We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

Global Trade and the Dollar

Global Trade and the Dollar
Author: Gita Gopinath
Publisher:
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:
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We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country's share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies

Dominant Currency Paradigm: A New Model for Small Open Economies
Author: Camila Casas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2017-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148433017X
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Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

Dominant-currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from US Dollar Appreciation

Dominant-currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from US Dollar Appreciation
Author: Georgios Georgiadis
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN: 9789289935708
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Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy co-ordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing (PCP) and local-currency pricing (LCP). In the model, under DCP the output spillovers from shocks that appreciate the US dollar multilaterally decline with an economy's export-import US dollar pricing share differential, i.e. the difference between the share of an economy's exports and imports that are priced in the dominant currency. Underlying this prediction is a change in an economy's net exports in response to multilateral changes in the US dollar exchange rate that arises because of differences in the extent to which exports and imports are priced in the dominant currency. We then confront this prediction of DCP with the data in a sample of up to 46 advanced and emerging market economies for the time period from 1995 to 2018. Specifically, controlling for other cross-border transmission channels, we document that consistent with the prediction from DCP the output spillovers from US dollar appreciation correlate negatively with recipient economies' export-import US dollar invoicing share differentials. We document that these findings are robust to considering US demand, US monetary policy and exogenous exchange rate shocks as a trigger of US dollar appreciation, as well as to accounting for the role of commodity trade in US dollar invoicing.

Rethinking Money

Rethinking Money
Author: Bernard Lietaer
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2013-02-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1609942981
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This study reveals how our monetary system reinforces scarcity, and how communities are already using new paradigms to foster sustainable prosperity. In the United States and across Europe, our economies are stuck in an agonizing cycle of repeated financial meltdowns. Yet solutions already exist, not only our recurring fiscal crises but our ongoing social and ecological debacles as well. These changes came about not through increased conventional taxation, enlightened self-interest, or government programs, but by people simply rethinking the concept of money. In Rethinking Money, Bernard Lietaer and Jacqui Dunne explore the origins of our current monetary system—built on bank debt and scarcity—revealing how its limitations give rise to so many serious problems. The authors then present stories of ordinary people and communities using new money, working in cooperation with national currencies, to strengthen local economies, create work, beautify cities, provide education, and more. These real-world examples are just the tip of the iceberg—over four thousand cooperative currencies are already in existence. The book provides remedies for challenges faced by governments, businesses, nonprofits, local communities, and even banks. It demystifies a complex and critically important topic and offers meaningful solutions that will do far more than restore prosperity—it will provide the framework for an era of sustainable abundance.

Dominant Currency Paradigm

Dominant Currency Paradigm
Author: Tamta Sopromadze
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:
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The Dedollarisation Paradigm

The Dedollarisation Paradigm
Author: Jarrel E
Publisher: Independently Published
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-09-07
Genre:
ISBN:
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The Dedollarisation Paradigm: Rethinking Global Financial Systems In an age of profound economic transformation, the world is witnessing a fundamental shift away from the once unassailable dominance of the United States dollar (USD) in global finance. The pages of history are being rewritten as nations, economies, and financial institutions grapple with the challenges and opportunities of dedollarisation. "The Dedollarisation Paradigm: Rethinking Global Financial Systems" offers an insightful and comprehensive exploration of this paradigm shift. In this groundbreaking book, we embark on a journey into the heart of the dedollarisation phenomenon. We delve deep into the complexities of a multipolar monetary system and examine its far-reaching implications for the global economy, trade, investment, and geopolitics. Through meticulous research, expert analysis, and real-world case studies, we unravel the intricacies of a world less dependent on the USD and the emergence of alternative reserve currencies. "The Dedollarisation Paradigm" takes readers on a compelling exploration of the history of the US dollar's rise to global prominence and its impact on international finance. It dissects the Bretton Woods System and dollar hegemony, laying bare the intricate web of financial power that has characterized the post-World War II era. But this book doesn't stop at history. It goes on to provide a forward-looking perspective, offering a roadmap for dedollarisation strategies and highlighting the benefits, challenges, and risks associated with this monumental shift. It explores the role of central banks in dedollarisation, the challenges of currency diversification, and the need for international cooperation in a multipolar world. Through in-depth analysis and thoughtful commentary, "The Dedollarisation Paradigm" equips readers with a nuanced understanding of the global financial system's future. It offers a glimpse into the potential scenarios that may unfold and their implications for global stability, trade relations, and economic equilibrium. Key Themes - Historical Perspective: The USD's journey from its inception to global dominance. - Bretton Woods System: How it shaped the dollar's hegemony. - Dedollarisation Strategies: Roadmaps for nations seeking to reduce USD dependence. - The Role of Central Banks: Their influence in the dedollarisation process. - Currency Diversification: Reducing risk through a multipolar monetary landscape. - Global Stability: Implications of dedollarisation on trade, finance, and geopolitics. "The Dedollarisation Paradigm: Rethinking Global Financial Systems" is an essential read for policymakers, economists, financial experts, and anyone seeking to comprehend the transformative forces at play in the global financial arena. With a wealth of information and a forward-thinking approach, this book shines a light on the evolving world of finance and the profound implications of dedollarisation on a global scale.