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| Author | : Thomas Holbrook |
| Publisher | : SAGE Publications |
| Total Pages | : 195 |
| Release | : 1996-06-18 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1506338178 |
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If elections are easily predicted and voting behavior is easily explained with just a few fundamental variables, it seems quite plausible to argue that campaigns don′t matter. This book attempts to answer the question, "Do campaigns matter?" by analyzing changes in public opinion during and across several presidential election campaigns. The crux of the argument is that although the national political and economic context of the election is very important, campaigns also play a crucial role in determining election outcomes. In particular, campaign events, such as conventions and debates, are primarily responsible for changes in public opinion that occur during the campaign period. Using many different data sources from several presidential campaigns, this important volume demonstrates that election outcomes are jointly produced by campaigns and national conditions. Covering an important and neglected subject, Do Campaigns Matter? is essential for students in political science at both graduate and undergraduate levels. Its original research, imaginative approach at conceptualizing data, and excellent empirical analysis, make it a must read for researchers and professionals as well.
| Author | : David M. Farrell |
| Publisher | : Routledge |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 2003-09-02 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1134520425 |
Download Do Political Campaigns Matter? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book, in bringing together some of the leading international scholars on electoral behaviour and communication studies, provides the first ever stock-take of the state of this sub-discipline. The individual chapters present the most recent studies on campaign effects in North America, Europe and Australasia. As a whole, the book provides a cross-national assessment of the theme of political campaigns and their consequences.
| Author | : Robert S. Erikson |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 221 |
| Release | : 2012-08-24 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0226922162 |
Download The Timeline of Presidential Elections Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
| Author | : Lynn Vavreck |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 236 |
| Release | : 2009-07-26 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9780691139630 |
Download The Message Matters Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.
| Author | : Leticia Bode |
| Publisher | : Brookings Institution Press |
| Total Pages | : 276 |
| Release | : 2020-05-26 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0815731922 |
Download Words That Matter Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
How the 2016 news media environment allowed Trump to win the presidency The 2016 presidential election campaign might have seemed to be all about one man. He certainly did everything possible to reinforce that impression. But to an unprecedented degree the campaign also was about the news media and its relationships with the man who won and the woman he defeated. Words that Matter assesses how the news media covered the extraordinary 2016 election and, more important, what information—true, false, or somewhere in between—actually helped voters make up their minds. Using journalists' real-time tweets and published news coverage of campaign events, along with Gallup polling data measuring how voters perceived that reporting, the book traces the flow of information from candidates and their campaigns to journalists and to the public. The evidence uncovered shows how Donald Trump's victory, and Hillary Clinton's loss, resulted in large part from how the news media responded to these two unique candidates. Both candidates were unusual in their own ways, and thus presented a long list of possible issues for the media to focus on. Which of these many topics got communicated to voters made a big difference outcome. What people heard about these two candidates during the campaign was quite different. Coverage of Trump was scattered among many different issues, and while many of those issues were negative, no single negative narrative came to dominate the coverage of the man who would be elected the 45th president of the United States. Clinton, by contrast, faced an almost unrelenting news media focus on one negative issue—her alleged misuse of e-mails—that captured public attention in a way that the more numerous questions about Trump did not. Some news media coverage of the campaign was insightful and helpful to voters who really wanted serious information to help them make the most important decision a democracy offers. But this book also demonstrates how the modern media environment can exacerbate the kind of pack journalism that leads some issues to dominate the news while others of equal or greater importance get almost no attention, making it hard for voters to make informed choices.
| Author | : Samuel L. Popkin |
| Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
| Total Pages | : 335 |
| Release | : 2020-05-15 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 022677287X |
Download The Reasoning Voter Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The Reasoning Voter is an insider's look at campaigns, candidates, media, and voters that convincingly argues that voters make informed logical choices. Samuel L. Popkin analyzes three primary campaigns—Carter in 1976; Bush and Reagan in 1980; and Hart, Mondale, and Jackson in 1984—to arrive at a new model of the way voters sort through commercials and sound bites to choose a candidate. Drawing on insights from economics and cognitive psychology, he convincingly demonstrates that, as trivial as campaigns often appear, they provide voters with a surprising amount of information on a candidate's views and skills. For all their shortcomings, campaigns do matter. "Professor Popkin has brought V.O. Key's contention that voters are rational into the media age. This book is a useful rebuttal to the cynical view that politics is a wholly contrived business, in which unscrupulous operatives manipulate the emotions of distrustful but gullible citizens. The reality, he shows, is both more complex and more hopeful than that."—David S. Broder, The Washington Post
| Author | : Emiliano Grossman |
| Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
| Total Pages | : 224 |
| Release | : 2021-12-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 0192662945 |
Download Do Elections (Still) Matter? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Are election campaigns relevant to policymaking, as they should in a democracy? This book sheds new light on this central democratic concern based on an ambitious study of democratic mandates through the lens of agenda-setting in five West European countries since the 1980s. The authors develop and test a new model bridging studies of party competition, pledge fulfillment, and policymaking. The core argument is that electoral priorities are a major factor shaping policy agendas, but mandates should not be mistaken as partisan. Parties are like 'snakes in tunnels': they have distinctive priorities, but they need to respond to emerging problems and their competitors' priorities, resulting in considerable cross-partisan overlap. The 'tunnel of attention' remains constraining in the policymaking arena, especially when opposition parties have resources to press governing parties to act on the campaign priorities. This key aspect of mandate responsiveness has been neglected so far, because in traditional models of mandate representation, party platforms are conceived as a set of distinctive priorities, whose agenda-setting impact ultimately depends on the institutional capacity of the parties in office. Rather differently, this book suggests that counter-majoritarian institutions and windows for opposition parties generate key incentives to stick to the mandate. It shows that these findings hold across five very different democracies: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. The results contribute to a renewal of mandate theories of representation and lead to question the idea underlying much of the comparative politics literature that majoritarian systems are more responsive than consensual ones.
| Author | : Ilka Kreimendahl |
| Publisher | : GRIN Verlag |
| Total Pages | : 27 |
| Release | : 2003-08-29 |
| Genre | : Literary Collections |
| ISBN | : 3638214273 |
Download Campaigning in America Today: The Role of Campaigns in U.S. Presidential Elections Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Seminar paper from the year 2000 in the subject American Studies - Culture and Applied Geography, grade: 1 (A), University of Kassel (Anglistics), course: The Making of the President 2000, language: English, abstract: There is no aspect of contemporary American politics more criticized than the modern political campaign: it provides too little information for the voter, the amount of money spent is too high, there is no thoughtful discussion of issues, and campaign organizers will reach to the very edge of acceptable practices to find some way of appealing to the voters. These are some of the elements that are responsible for the growing disgust for election campaigns and the decline in political interest. However the question is if campaigns really do have consequences for the election outcome or if their effect is rather limited. This paper will focus on the development of political campaigns, their strategy and planning, as well as on issues and the presentation of the candidate. The composition will further have a look on the campaign and election in 1992, on the actual effects the campaign has on the voter and consequently on the election outcome. In the last two decades scholars perceived a change from old to new politics, including a significant modification in the nature of campaigns. In the last years the traditional partyoriented personal campaign has been largely replaced by the so-called candidate-centered, media-oriented campaign. The basic elements of campaigns changed dramatically because of increased nonvoting, the growth in the power of interest groups, and the power of the media. In national elections the expansion of the mass media campaign has led to a decline in the importance of party affiliation, while at the same time the party organizations themselves became more powerful.
| Author | : Andrew Gelman |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2007 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download What Does 'Do Campaigns Matter?' Mean? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Scholars disagree over the extent to which presidential campaigns activate predispositions in voters or create vote preferences that could not be predicted. When campaign related information flows activate predispositions, election results are largely predetermined given balanced resources. They can be accurately forecast well before a campaign has run its course. Alternatively, campaigns may change vote outcomes beyond forcing predispositions to some equilibrium level. We find most evidence for the former: opinion poll data are consistent with Presidential campaigns activating predispositions, with fundamental variables increasing in importance as a presidential election draws near.
| Author | : Thomas M. Holbrook |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 178 |
| Release | : 1996 |
| Genre | : Political campaigns |
| ISBN | : 9781452243825 |
Download Do Campaigns Matter? Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Combining actual election results and empirical evidence with data on additional factors such as media coverage, Thomas M. Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns, and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion.
