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Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information

Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 538
Release: 2017-06-16
Genre:
ISBN: 9781138115095

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Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.


Uncertainty and Possibility

Uncertainty and Possibility
Author: Yoko Akama
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 160
Release: 2020-06-08
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1000184293

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Uncertainty and possibility are emerging as both theoretical concepts and fields of empirical investigation, as scholars and practitioners seek new creative, hopeful and speculative modes of understanding and intervening in a world of crisis.This book offers new perspectives on the central issues of uncertainty and possibility, and identifies new research methods which take advantage of disruptive and experimental techniques. Advancing a practical agenda for future making, it reveals how uncertainty can be engaged as a generative ‘technology’ for understanding, researching and intervening in the world. Drawing on key themes in creative methodologies, such as making, essaying, inhabiting and attuning, chapters explore contemporary sites of practice. The book looks at maker spaces and technology design, the imaginaries of architectural design, the temporalities of built cultural heritage, and interdisciplinary making and performing. Based on the authors' own academic work and their applied research with a range of different organizations, Uncertainty and Possibility outlines new opportunities for research and intervention. It is essential reading for students, scholars and practitioners in design anthropology and human-centred design.


Organized Uncertainty

Organized Uncertainty
Author: Michael Power
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 268
Release: 2007-05-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0191531146

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Since the mid-1990s risk management has undergone a dramatic expansion in its reach and significance, being transformed from an aspect of management control to become a benchmark of good governance for banks, hospitals, schools, charities and many other organizations. Numerous standards for risk management practice have been produced by a variety of transnational organizations. While these many designs and blueprints are accompanied by ideals of enterprise, value production, and good governance, it is argued that the rise of risk management has also coincided with an intensification of auditing and control processes. The legalization and bureacratization of organizational life has increased because risk management has created new demands for proof and evidence of action. In turn, these demands have generated new risks to reputation. In short, this important book traces the rise of the managerial concept of risk and the different logics and values which underpin it, showing that it has much less to do with real dangers and opportunities than might be thought, and more to do with organizational accountability and legitimacy.


Designing with Uncertainty

Designing with Uncertainty
Author: Oscar Carracedo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

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Robust Design Methodology for Reliability

Robust Design Methodology for Reliability
Author: Bo Bergman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 214
Release: 2009-08-18
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 047074880X

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Based on deep theoretical as well as practical experience in Reliability and Quality Sciences, Robust Design Methodology for Reliability constructively addresses practical reliability problems. It offers a comprehensive design theory for reliability, utilizing robust design methodology and six sigma frameworks. In particular, the relation between un-reliability and variation and uncertainty is explored and reliability improvement measures in early product development stages are suggested. Many companies today utilise design for Six Sigma (DfSS) for strategic improvement of the design process, but often without explicitly describing the reliability perspective; this book explains how reliability design can relate to and work with DfSS and illustrates this with real–world problems. The contributors advocate designing for robustness, i.e. insensitivity to variation in the early stages of product design development. Methods for rational treatment of uncertainties in model assumptions are also presented. This book promotes a new approach to reliability thinking that addresses the design process and proneness to failure in the design phase via sensitivity to variation and uncertainty; includes contributions from both academics and industry practitioners with a broad scope of expertise, including quality science, mathematical statistics and reliability engineering; takes the innovative approach of promoting the study of variation and uncertainty as a basis for reliability work; includes case studies and illustrative examples that translate the theory into practice. Robust Design Methodology for Reliability provides a starting point for new thinking in practical reliability improvement work that will appeal to advanced designers and reliability specialists in academia and industry including fatigue engineers, product development and process/ quality professionals, especially those interested in and/ or using the DfSS framework.


Navigating Ambiguity

Navigating Ambiguity
Author: Andrea Small
Publisher: Ten Speed Press
Total Pages: 145
Release: 2022-04-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1984857975

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A thought-provoking guide to help you lean in to the discomfort of the unknown to turn creative opportunities into intentional design, from Stanford University's world-renowned d.school. “Navigating Ambiguity reminds us not to run from uncertainty but rather see it as a defining moment of opportunity.”—Yves Béhar, Founder and CEO, fuseproject A design process presents a series of steps, but in real life, it rarely plays out this neatly. Navigating Ambiguity underscores how the creative process isn’t formulaic. This book shows you how to surrender control by being adaptable, curious, and unbiased as well as resourceful, tenacious, and courageous. Designers and educators Andrea Small and Kelly Schmutte use humor and clear steps to help you embrace uncertainty as you approach a creative project. First, they explain how the brain works and why it defaults to certainty. Then they show you how to let go of the need for control and instead employ a flexible strategy that relies on the balance between acting and adapting, and the give-and-take between opposing approaches to make your way to your goal. Beautiful cut-paper artwork illustrations offer ways to rethink creative work without hitting the usual roadblocks. The result is a more open and satisfying journey from assignment or idea to finished product.


Uncertainty in Games

Uncertainty in Games
Author: Greg Costikyan
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2013
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0262018969

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How uncertainty in games -- from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors -- engages players and shapes play experiences.


Uncertainty x Design

Uncertainty x Design
Author: Ronald A. Beghetto
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 191
Release: 2023-11-02
Genre: Education
ISBN: 1316512967

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Provides insights, scenarios, and applications to help students embrace uncertainty and become creative authors of their own futures.


Designing for Uncertainty

Designing for Uncertainty
Author: Daniel Rosenberg (S.M.)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 99
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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(Cont.) This research presents a novel method to Design for Uncertainty, along with an empirical experiment that explores the generation of uncertain shapes and behaviors using Scissor -pair Transformable Structures. While, the method proposes general directions to be applied across a range of different types of design projects, the experiment shows a specific application involving the conceptual design and physical implementation of Scissor-pair Transformable Structures. The method leverages uncertainty in a synergetic and continuous process from design conception to the life of the building, which is then materialized through transformable structures able to re-define themselves through time.


Make to Know

Make to Know
Author: Lorne M. Buchman
Publisher: Thames & Hudson
Total Pages: 273
Release: 2022-04-27
Genre: Design
ISBN: 0500776954

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Make to Know: From Spaces of Uncertainty to Creative Discovery will change the way you think about creativity. The book upends popular notions of innate artistic and visionary genius and probes instead the event of discovery that happens through the act of making. In contrast to the classic tale of Michelangelo, who 'saw the angel in the stone', the artists and designers Buchman interviews for this book talk about knowing their work as they engage in the doing. Make to Know explores the revelatory nature of the creative journey itself. As Buchman weaves together the vivid stories of his multiple conversations, we learn about writers of all stripes as they confront creative spaces of uncertainty 'the blank page'; about visual artists and what they understand from the materials they encounter; about designers and architects and the iterative process of solving problems; and about actors and musicians facing the surprises of improvisational performance. Make to Know is a book that will, ultimately, open a path to your own making, and, in the end, will have significant implications for how you live. Make to Know presents a way of thinking that democratizes creativity and uncovers a process that leads to knowing both ones work and oneself. It is relevant to anyone interested in why creativity matters.