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Decision Analysis in Projects

Decision Analysis in Projects
Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
Total Pages: 164
Release: 1996
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects

Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects
Author: John R. Schuyler
Publisher:
Total Pages: 294
Release: 2001
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.


Decision Analysis for Managers

Decision Analysis for Managers
Author: David Charlesworth
Publisher: Business Expert Press
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2013-03-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1606494899

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Everybody has to make decisions—they are unavoidable. Yet we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions can be dif_ cult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand and which to sell or shut down, which bid or proposal to accept, which process to implement, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects should receive the highest priority, etc. This book gives you all the tools you need to... • clarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives and understand trade-offs in reaching those goals, • develop and examine alternatives, • systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and • maximize the chances of achieving your goals and objectives. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision making. You can’t control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. Broadly speaking, this book organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted.


Project Decisions, 2nd Edition

Project Decisions, 2nd Edition
Author: Lev Virine
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2019-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1523085460

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This new edition gives project managers practical methods and tools to make the right decisions while juggling multiple objectives, risks and uncertainties, and stakeholders. Project management requires you to navigate a maze of multiple and complex decisions that are an everyday part of the job. To be effective, you must know how to make rational choices with your projects, what processes can help to improve these choices, and what tools are available to help you with decision-making. An entertaining and easy-to-read guide to a structured project decision-making process, Project Decisions will help you identify risks and perform basic quantitative and qualitative risk and decision analyses. Lev Virine and Michael Trumper use their understanding of basic human psychology to show you how to use event chain methodology, establish creative business environments, and estimate project time and costs. Each phase of the process is described in detail, including a review of both its psychological aspects and quantitative methods.


ProjectThink

ProjectThink
Author: Lev Virine
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 216
Release: 2016-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317074793

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Projects are constantly beset by problems, often caused by seemingly small mistakes which collectively lead to larger issues. Why do project managers and teams appear to repeat the same mistakes? Can they make better choices without introducing complex decision analysis processes? How can they make better estimates? Project management is the art and science of human interactions. ProjectThink identifies and explains the paths of those intentional and unintentional actions that lead to trouble. It provides advice and guidance in analysing information and risk and explains how ’choice-engineering’ can facilitate decision-making and encourage everyone involved in a project to follow the right procedures and work collaboratively.


Decision-making on Mega-projects

Decision-making on Mega-projects
Author: Hugo Priemus
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2008-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1848440170

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It will be useful for those experienced and senior professionals who are charged with authorizing and controlling projects. Recommended. P.F. Rad, Choice Building on the seminal work of Bent Flyvbjerg, this book is a collection of expert contributions that will prove essential to anyone wanting to understand why mega-projects go wrong and how they can be made to work better. Professor Sir Peter Hall, University College London, UK This book offers a refreshing and fascinating look at mega-projects from the perspective of public evaluation and planning. With the changing role of the public sector in planning and implementing large-scale projects and a subsequent strong emergence of private public modes of operation, mega-projects have become a problematic phenomenon. This volume is a major source of information and reference. It provides the reader with unique insights and caveats in mega-projects planning. Peter Nijkamp, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands This book enlarges the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.


Portfolio Decision Analysis

Portfolio Decision Analysis
Author: Ahti Salo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 410
Release: 2011-08-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1441999434

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Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.


The Project Manager's Guide to Making Successful Decisions

The Project Manager's Guide to Making Successful Decisions
Author: Robert A. Powell PhD
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Total Pages: 253
Release: 2008-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1567263801

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Make Better Decisions While Managing Projects! Decision-making is critical in project management. Lack of decision-making knowledge, avoidable mistakes, and improper definitions can negatively impact your company's ability to generate profit. The Project Manager's Guide to Making Successful Decisions is a practical handbook that focuses on the significance of project decision-making skills that will all you to reach workable and effective results. This valuable resource highlights numerous decisions necessary to support the project management life cycle, presents various techniques that facilitate the decision-making process, provides an overview of decision analysis as it relates to project management, and much more! + Understand different types of decision-making processes and cycles + Recognize how to frame the decision and gather better information + Define alternatives and assessments to make the right decision + Analyze short case studies demonstrating project decision making success


Introduction to Decision Analysis

Introduction to Decision Analysis
Author: David C. Skinner
Publisher:
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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"This book is the most practical and thought-provoking step-by-step guide to making better decisions that is available today! Proven techniques and solid experience are the foundation for this classic text, which was written for the manager and for the decision analysis practitioner!"--


Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
Author: Paul Goodwin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 496
Release: 2014-05-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118740734

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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.