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Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts

Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts
Author: Daniel Kreutzmann
Publisher: Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3832525297
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This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.

Company Valuation and Bankruptcy Prediction

Company Valuation and Bankruptcy Prediction
Author: Jan Klobucnik
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 154
Release: 2013-11-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3656543585
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Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: summa cum laude, University of Cologne, language: English, abstract: The contribution of this study is manifold and relevant for academics and practitioners alike. It adds to the literature in the fields of corporate finance, financial accounting and stochastic modeling. In particular, this dissertation provides answers to the following questions: given the less efficient markets, can specialists as financial analysts provide additional information, which contain investment value? How can the true value of a company be determined with publicly available data and can discrepancies between fundamental and market values be exploited? Finally, is it possible to assess the firm’s financial health and its likelihood of failure several years into the future? Adressing these questions, the study first illustrates the company valuation assessment by financial analysts as summarized in their target prices and the information processing by analysts and investors in detail. Second, this thesis offers a novel empirical implementation of a model for fundamental company valuation that employs accounting data. In this context it demonstrates severe over- and undervaluation from a fundamental perspective in the U.S. technology sector over the last 20 years. Both the analysts’ company valuation captured by their target prices and the implementation of the fundamental company valuation model translate into significant investment value before and after transaction costs, which supports the notion of non-efficient markets. Finally, one major contribution is to evaluate a new approach for bankruptcy prediction that is based on stochastic processes. It is theoretically appealing and performs better especially for longer forecast horizons than standard methods.

COMPANY VALUATION UNDER IFRS - 3RD EDITION

COMPANY VALUATION UNDER IFRS - 3RD EDITION
Author: Nick Antill
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2020-02-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0857197770
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Revised and updated. The influence of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on accounting across the world is stronger than ever. Most importantly, this stems from the mandatory adoption of IFRSs in many parts of the world, including Europe, Canada, Australia, Brazil and, with some relatively small exceptions, China. Additionally, foreign registrants in the US are also permitted to use IFRS by the SEC. The impact of IFRSs also extends to accounting developments as the IASB and the FASB work closely together to formulate new standards such as those recently issued on leasing and revenue recognition. It is clear that investors, analysts and valuers need to understand financial statements produced under IFRS to feed in to their valuations and broader investment decisions. Written by practitioners for practitioners, the book addresses valuation from the viewpoint of the analyst, the investor and the corporate acquirer. It starts with valuation theory: what is to be discounted and at what discount rate? It explains the connection between standard methodologies based on free cash flow and on return on capital. And it emphasizes that, whichever method is used, accurate interpretation of accounting information is critical to the production of sensible valuations. The authors argue that forecasts of cash flows imply views on profits and balance sheets, and that non-cash items contain useful information about future cash flows - so profits matter. The book addresses the implications for analysis, modelling and valuation of key aspects of IFRS, all updated for recent developments, including: - Pensions - Stock options - Derivatives - Provisions - Leases - Revenue recognition - Foreign currency The text also sets out the key differences between IFRS and US GAAP treatments of these issues, in addition to their implications for analysis. A detailed case study is used to provide a step-by-step valuation of an industrial company using both free cash flow and economic profit methodologies. The authors then address a range of common valuation problems, including cyclical or immature companies, as well as the specialist accounting and modelling knowledge required for regulated utilities, resource extraction companies, banks, insurance companies, real estate companies and technology companies. Accounting for mergers and disposals is first explained and then illustrated with a detailed potential acquisition.

The Handbook of Corporate Earnings Analysis

The Handbook of Corporate Earnings Analysis
Author: Brian R. Bruce
Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing
Total Pages: 398
Release: 1994
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors

Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors
Author: James Kelleher
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 401
Release: 2010-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071759522
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Create comprehensive stock valuation models--quickly and efficiently "This amazingly thorough book takes you through real-world financial modeling, provides concise techniques and methods for determining asset value, and offers a blended valuation approach that is responsive to changes in market dynamics. Peer Derived Value, introduced in the book, represents an original and commonsense approach to valuing a stock within its peer group. This book, in my view, is an invaluable addition to any investor's library." -- William V. Campbell, Chairman, Intuit Corporation Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors introduces you to the financial statement analysis and model-building methodology used by leading equity research firm Argus Research. Written by Jim Kelleher, the company's director of research, the book offers the tools for estimating individual equity cash value. These include a completely original and proprietary valuation methodology, Peer Derived Value, which values an equity based on the stock's current variation from its historical relation to a user-specifi ed peer group. In a conveniently organized format, this in-depth guide covers all the tasks you need to master, including: • Financial statement modeling • Comparables analysis • Discounted free cash fl ow • Industry matrix models • Blending valuation inputs to calculate fair value in any market environment Valuing and predicting the future value of assets and stocks is a laborious task. Successful analysts and investors don't have time for tedious work that is outdated as soon as it's done. Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors is the comprehensive guide to efficient financial statement analysis and model-building from one of the world-leading independent equity research firms, Argus Research. At the helm of the company's research is author Jim Kelleher, who developed his methodology and model-building techniques during his twenty years covering more than a dozen industries in nearly every sector. A good valuation model is an invaluable tool to help the serious investor: Wring more information from the 10-K and 10-Q Predict unexpected earnings shortfall or positive earnings surprises Master the art of "valuation choreography" One of the biggest challenges to making accurate predictions with a valuation model today is the rapid and constant fluctuation of data. Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors provides a tried-and-true process for creating effective, compact models that add new measurement and valuation periods and accommodate a company’s unique data presentation and reporting style. This versatile guidebook also provides both a rigorous process and a shortcut for each step in modeling financial statement data so analysts can customize their data focus based on their position in the value chain. When implemented in the real world, the valuation model uses the power of Excel to allow investors to quickly and accurately update their valuations and predictions by simply inputting adjusted data. Take control of your investments now by managing them based on your own research and Equity Valuation for Analysts and Investors.

Empirical Implications of Analyst Forecast Dispersion to the Information Dynamics of Valuation Models

Empirical Implications of Analyst Forecast Dispersion to the Information Dynamics of Valuation Models
Author: Daniel M. Bryan
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:
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Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of abnormal earnings, net book value and other unspecified information. Ohlson (2001) proposes consensus analyst forecasts as a proxy for the previously unspecified other information in his model, which we test using a two stage approach. The first stage identifies information in analyst forecasts that is reflected in current earnings and net book value, and the second stage regresses the first-stage residuals as the proxy for other new information. Our initial results using price-levels regressions concur with Dechow et al.'s (1999) findings that short-run consensus analyst forecasts are effective proxies for other information, and that the proposed model is no more descriptive than capitalizing short-run forecasts in perpetuity. We find that with high forecast dispersion, however, the effectiveness of analyst forecasts as well as the association between earnings and market values are diminished. Overall, we find that the descriptive ability of both the Ohlson model and the capitalized forecast model is dampened with high forecast dispersion, but the dampening is more severe for the capitalized forecast model, suggesting that the descriptive ability of Ohlson's valuation framework is strongest, relative to capitalized analyst forecasts, when uncertainty and information asymmetry are most severe. In contrast to our (and Dechow et al.'s) price-levels regression results, we find with returns regressions that Ohlson's model is consistently and significantly more descriptive than a model that simply capitalizes changes in analyst forecasts.

Valuation Approaches and Metrics

Valuation Approaches and Metrics
Author: Aswath Damodaran
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 102
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601980140
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Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.

The Effect of Industry Diversification on Consensus and Individual Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

The Effect of Industry Diversification on Consensus and Individual Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
Author: Kimberly Dunn
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 1998
Genre:
ISBN:
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We study the effects of company diversification and analyst diversification on consensus and individual analysts' earnings forecasts. Company diversification is measured both as the number of segments reported by a company and as an entropy measure which decomposes the total diversification into an unrelated and a related component. For the consensus forecast analysis, we examine the effect of these variables both on forecast accuracy and inter-analyst earnings forecast disagreement. For the individual analyst forecast analysis, we examine the effect of the number of business segments followed by an analyst and analyst diversification on individual analyst forecast accuracy. We develop a new measure of individual analyst's diversification which takes into consideration the business segments of all companies followed by an analyst, and its interaction with the business segments of the company whose earnings are being forecasted. The results of our study show that as the level of a company's total diversification increases, analysts are less accurate in their earnings forecasts and have more inter-analyst disagreement. Analysts are less accurate and have more disagreement as unrelated diversification increases. A company's related diversification has no significant impact on these variables. For both forecast accuracy and inter-analyst disagreement, the impact of a unit of unrelated diversification is significantly higher than that of the impact of a unit of related diversification. For individual analysts' earnings forecasts, as the number of business segments followed by an analyst increases and as his level of diversification increases, his earnings forecast accuracy significantly declines. The results of our study have implications for researchers who use analysts? earnings forecasts in their studies, investors who use these forecasts for company valuation and for brokerage firms in evaluating individual analysts.

Analytical Approach to Investing Research - Removing the Management Fluff

Analytical Approach to Investing Research - Removing the Management Fluff
Author: Pat O'Leary
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009-03-25
Genre: Business enterprises
ISBN: 9781590959992
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A Market Insiders Analytical Approach Removes Management Fluff to Help Predict Forward Pricing and Valuation Based on Solid Principles That Can Be Quantified The management of earnings and expectations directly impacts the analytical forecasts in firm evaluation. Earnings and analysts forecasts are important inputs into accounting valuation models to reflect current and predict future firm performance. These models help predict the intrinsic value, but in recent years they may have adversely affected the usefulness of the resulting information. This book is meant to show that intrinsic value metrics estimated using manipulated earnings or forecasts have less ability to track stock prices and predict future returns. The usefulness of earnings and analysts forecasts provides evidence for the joint hypothesis of] Long-term market efficiency Negative impact of earnings management and expectations management Removing The Management Fluff. The authors approach has two major objectives in Removing the Management Fluff. First, it challenges the conventional view that more accurate and less biased forecasts are necessarily of better quality and proposes to assess the quality of analysts forecasts. It also introduces an improved measure for expectations management and presents new evidence on the following: Usefulness of earnings and analyst forecasts in firm valuation (Negative impacts of earnings management and expectations management on this usefulness (Overall performance of accounting valuation models in firm valuation Dr. Pat OLeary, Ph.D. Accounting MBA, CMA, CFM, CNE, B. Commerce Born in Brantford, Ontario, Canada, Pat has always been motivated to succeed and dedicated to getting the best formal financial education possible, as evidenced by his many degrees and certifications. As he rose through the ranks in the corporate world, he gained extensive experience in corporate structuring, mergers, IPOs, international finance, foreign exchange, and manufacturing. His impressive educational background and financial experience have blended to form the analytical and practical approach to investing research that he presents in this book.