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Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence?

Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence?
Author: Andrea Deghi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2022-08-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.


Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data

Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Author: Mr. Adrian Alter
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2023-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3\% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.


Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19

Commercial Real Estate and Macrofinancial Stability During COVID-19
Author: Andrea Deghi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2021-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557759764

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The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has severely shocked the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, which could have important implications for macro-financial stability going forward because of the large size of the sector and its strong interconnectedness with the real economy. Using a novel methodology, this paper quantifies vulnerabilities in the CRE sector and analyzes policy tools available to mitigate related risks. The analysis shows that CRE prices were overvalued in several major advanced economies in 2020:Q1. It also shows that such price misalignments increase the likelihood of future price corrections and exacerbate downside risks to future GDP growth. While the path of recovery in the sector will depend inherently on the pace of overall economic recovery and the structural shifts induced by the pandemic, easy financial conditions may contribute to an increase in financial vulnerabilities and persistent price misalignment. Macroprudential policy can, however, be effective in curbing the financial stability risks posed by the CRE sector.


The Commercial Real Estate Revolution

The Commercial Real Estate Revolution
Author: Rex Miller
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 91
Release: 2009-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470523700

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As it currently operates, the commercial real estate construction industry is a disaster full of built-in waste. Seventy-percent of all projects end over budget and late. The buildingSMART Alliance estimates that up to fifty-percent of the process is consumed in waste. Almost every project includes massive hidden taxes in the form of delays, cost overruns, poor quality, and work that has to be redone. Building new structures is a fragmented, adversarial process that commonly results in dissatisfied customers and frequently ends in disappointment, bitterness, and even litigation. The industry must change—for its own good and that of its customers. But while the industry has tried to reform itself, it can’t do it alone. Real change can only come from business owners and executives who refuse to continue paying for a dysfunctional system and demand a new way of doing business. The Commercial Real Estate Revolution is a bold manifesto for change from the Mindshift consortium—a group of top commercial real estate industry leaders who are fed up with a system that simply doesn’t work. The book explains how business leaders can implement nine principles for any project that will dramatically cut costs, end delays, create better buildings, and force the industry into real reform. The Commercial Real Estate Revolution offers a radically new way of doing business—a beginning-to-end, trust-based methodology that transforms the building process from top to bottom. Based on unifying principles and a common framework that meets the needs of all stakeholders, this new system can reform and remake commercial construction into an industry we’re proud to be a part of. If you’re one of the millions of hardcore cynics who work in commercial construction, you probably think this sounds like pie in the sky. But this is no magic bullet; it’s a call for real reform. If you’re an industry professional who’s sick of letting down clients or an owner who’s sick of cost overruns and endless delays, The Commercial Real Estate Revolution offers a blueprint for fixing a broken industry.


Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 124
Release: 2024-04-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Chapter 1 documents that near-term global financial stability risks have receded amid expectations that global disinflation is entering its last mile. However, along it, there are several salient risks and a build-up of medium-term vulnerabilities. Chapter 2 assesses vulnerabilities and potential risks to financial stability in corporate private credit, a rapidly growing asset class—traditionally focused on providing loans to midsize firms outside the realms of either commercial banks or public debt markets—that now rivals other major credit markets in size. Chapter 3 shows that while cyber incidents have thus far not been systemic, the probability of severe cyber incidents has increased, posing an acute threat to macrofinancial stability.


Underwriting Commercial Real Estate in a Dynamic Market

Underwriting Commercial Real Estate in a Dynamic Market
Author: Christian Redfearn
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 262
Release: 2019-05-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128159898

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A recurrent theme in Underwriting Commercial Real Estate in a Dynamic Market is that good thinking and good underwriting go together. This stands in contrast with "getting an answer" or even worse "reverse engineering" - getting to a solution by assuming that current trends in market pricing is best. The cases in Underwriting Commercial Real Estate in a Dynamic Market will force readers to recognize that there is no single answer, but rather a range of answers that will depend on numerous perspectives. And, in order to make valuation decisions, they will have to undertake a rich conversation about what constitutes a good trade-off and what does not. Cases can be structured for use with introductory material as well as advanced topics. Encourages readers to think about alternatives and their viability Addresses real world variations and concentrates on large urban economic forces and their implications for real estate valuation Presents case studies that vary significantly in length and specificity Includes pedagogical materials such as case introductions and exhibits