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Author | : Mr.Paul Cashin |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 22 |
Release | : 2016-03-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513590928 |
Download China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.
Author | : Paul Cashin |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : Capital market |
ISBN | : 9781513593470 |
Download China's Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Allan Dizioli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 35 |
Release | : 2016-08-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475524269 |
Download Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Author | : Laurent Ferrara |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 300 |
Release | : 2018-06-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3319790757 |
Download International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author | : David Dollar |
Publisher | : Brookings Institution Press |
Total Pages | : 444 |
Release | : 2020-06-09 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0815738064 |
Download China 2049 Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Author | : Gee Hee Hong |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2016-08-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475526601 |
Download China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.
Author | : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv |
Publisher | : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform |
Total Pages | : 34 |
Release | : 2016-11-18 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9781542904476 |
Download The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.
Author | : Ms.Ratna Sahay |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 61 |
Release | : 2014-10-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484356004 |
Download Emerging Market Volatility Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Author | : Mr.Yibin Mu |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2017-12-22 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484335406 |
Download China’s Impacts on SSA through the Lens of Growth and Exports Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
The analysis of China’s impacts on the 44 SSA countries reveals that: (i) after joining the WTO in 2001, China has started to impact significantly on SSA growth: one-percent increase in China’s GDP per capita leads to 0.02 percent increase on the SSA’s GDP per capita; (ii) oil and investment-goods exporters benefit more from China’s growth; (iii) compared to China’s consumption, its investment growth acts as a more important channel in influencing SSA; (iv) exports to China, highly linked to China’s growth, is an important indicator for SSA’s exports. Our results call for SSA countries to be well prepared for China’s rebalancing given its growing economic influence and to proactively search a sustainable way to continuously enhance productivity.
Author | : Allan Dizioli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2016-11-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475554435 |
Download Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.