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Capital Structure Choice

Capital Structure Choice
Author: Robert A. Korajczyk
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper provides new evidence of how macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure choice. We model firms' target capital structures as a function of macroeconomic conditions and firm-specific variables. We split our sample based on a measure of financial constraints. Target leverage is counter-cyclical for the relatively unconstrained sample, but pro-cyclical for the relatively constrained sample. Macroeconomic conditions are significant for issue choice for unconstrained firms but less so for constrained firms. Our results support the hypothesis that unconstrained firms time their issue choice to coincide with periods of favorable macroeconomic conditions, while constrained firms do not.


Why Does Capital Structure Choice Vary with Macroeconomic Conditions?

Why Does Capital Structure Choice Vary with Macroeconomic Conditions?
Author: Amnon Levy
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper develops a calibrated model that explains the pronounced counter-cyclical leverage patterns observed for firms that access public capital markets, and relates these patters to debt and equity issues. Moreover, it explains why leverage and debt issues do not exhibit this pronounced behavior for firms that face more severe constraints when accessing capital markets. In the model, managers issue a combination of debt and equity to finance investment by weighing the trade-off between agency problems and risk sharing. During contractions, leveraged managers receive a relatively small share of wealth, resulting in a relative increase in household demand for securities. Securities markets clear as managers that are not up against their borrowing constraints increase leverage while satisfying the agency condition that they maintain a large enough portion of their firm s equity.


Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions

Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions
Author: Jianjun Miao
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple observation has a wide range of implications for corporations. Notably, we show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate that it can reproduce the observed term structure of credit spreads and generate strictly positive credit spreads for very short maturities. Finally, we characterize the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the pace and size of capital structure changes, and debt capacity. A number of new predictions follow.


Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Structure Adjustment Speed

Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Structure Adjustment Speed
Author: Douglas O. Cook
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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Studies show that capital structure choice varies over time and across firms and that macroeconomic conditions are important factors in analyzing firms' financing choices. However, studies have largely ignored the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the adjustment speed of capital structure toward targets. Hackbarth et al. (2006) develop a contingent model for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on dynamic capital structure choice. Allowing for dynamic capital structure adjustments, their model predicts that firms should adjust their capital structure faster in booms than in recessions. We employ U.S. data over a 30 year sample period to test the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and capital structure adjustment speed using both two-stage and integrated partial adjustment dynamic capital structure models. We find evidence supporting the prediction from Hackbarth et al's theoretical framework that firms adjust to target leverage faster in good states than in bad states, where states are defined by term spread, default spread, GDP growth rate, and market dividend yield. Our results also support the pecking order theory in that under-levered firms adjust faster than firms that are over-levered. We find evidence favoring the market timing theory implication that under-levered firms have less incentive to adjust toward target leverage when stock market performance is good, as measured by dividend yield on the market and price-output ratio. Robustness tests demonstrate that our speed of capital structure adjustment cannot be simply explained by firm size, the degree of deviation from target, or by the definition of debt ratio. Our results are also robust to potential boundary issues.


The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility

The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility
Author: Sharjil M. Haque
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2021-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589064127

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We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.


Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis

Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis
Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 523
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226241750

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These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.


Macroeconomic conditions and the puzzles of credit spreads and capital structure

Macroeconomic conditions and the puzzles of credit spreads and capital structure
Author: Hui Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2010
Genre: Business enterprises
ISBN:

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I build a dynamic capital structure model that demonstrates how business-cycle variations in expected growth rates, economic uncertainty, and risk premia influence firms' financing and default policies. Countercyclical fluctuations in risk prices, default probabilities, and default losses arise endogenously through firms' responses to the macroeconomic conditions. These comovements generate large credit risk premia for investment grade firms, which helps address the "credit spread puzzle" and "under-leverage puzzle" in a unified framework. The model generates interesting dynamics for financing and defaults, including "credit contagion" and market timing of debt issuance. It also provides a novel procedure to estimate state-dependent default losses.


Credit Risk

Credit Risk
Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 415
Release: 2012-01-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400829178

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In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.