Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting At The Stateline Wind Energy Center The Regime Switching Space Time Rst Method PDF Download
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Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2004 |
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Download Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching Space-Time (RST) Method Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
With the global proliferation of wind power, accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological and statistical expertise to obtain accurate and calibrated, fully probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and wind power. The model formulation is parsimonious, yet takes account of all the salient features of wind speed: alternating atmospheric regimes, temporal and spatial correlation, diurnal and seasonal non-stationarity, conditional heteroscedasticity, and non-Gaussianity. The RST method identifies forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime. Geographically dispersed meteorological observations in the vicinity of the wind farm are used as off-site predictors. The RST technique was applied to 2-hour ahead forecasts of hourly average wind speed at the Stateline wind farm in the US Pacific Northwest. In July 2003, for instance, the RST forecasts had root-mean-square error (RMSE) 28.6% less than the persistence forecasts. For each month in the test period, the RST forecasts had lower RMSE than forecasts using state-of-the-art vector time series techniques. The RST method provides probabilistic forecasts in the form of predictive cumulative distribution functions, and those were well calibrated and sharp. The RST prediction intervals were substantially shorter on average than prediction intervals derived from univariate time series techniques. These results suggest that quality meteorological data from sites upwind of wind farms can be efficiently used to improve short-term forecasts of wind resources. It is anticipated that the RST technique can be successfully applied at wind energy sites all over the world.
Author | : Wei-Chiang Hong |
Publisher | : MDPI |
Total Pages | : 251 |
Release | : 2018-10-19 |
Genre | : Electronic books |
ISBN | : 3038972908 |
Download Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Hybrid Advanced Techniques for Forecasting in Energy Sector" that was published in Energies
Author | : João P. S. Catalão |
Publisher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 462 |
Release | : 2017-12-19 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 1439893969 |
Download Electric Power Systems Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Electric Power Systems: Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Optimal Generation Scheduling helps readers develop their skills in modeling, simulating, and optimizing electric power systems. Carefully balancing theory and practice, it presents novel, cutting-edge developments in forecasting and scheduling. The focus is on understanding and solving pivotal problems in the management of electric power generation systems. Methods for Coping with Uncertainty and Risk in Electric Power Generation Outlining real-world problems, the book begins with an overview of electric power generation systems. Since the ability to cope with uncertainty and risk is crucial for power generating companies, the second part of the book examines the latest methods and models for self-scheduling, load forecasting, short-term electricity price forecasting, and wind power forecasting. Toward Optimal Coordination between Hydro, Thermal, and Wind Power Using case studies, the third part of the book investigates how to achieve the most favorable use of available energy sources. Chapters in this section discuss price-based scheduling for generating companies, optimal scheduling of a hydro producer, hydro-thermal coordination, unit commitment with wind generators, and optimal optimization of multigeneration systems. Written in a pedagogical style that will appeal to graduate students, the book also expands on research results that are useful for engineers and researchers. It presents the latest techniques in increasingly important areas of power system operations and planning.
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Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 916 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : Electronic journals |
ISBN | : |
Download Journal of the American Statistical Association Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
A scientific and educational journal not only for professional statisticians but also for economists, business executives, research directors, government officials, university professors, and others who are seriously interested in the application of statistical methods to practical problems, in the development of more useful methods, and in the improvement of basic statistical data.
Author | : Patrick Timothy Marsh |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 206 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : Numerical weather forecasting |
ISBN | : |
Download A Method for Calibrating Probabilistic Forecasts Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Author | : Bernt Karsten Øksendal |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 360 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : Stochastic differential equations |
ISBN | : 9783540256625 |
Download Stochastic Differential Equations Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This book gives an introduction to the basic theory of stochastic calculus and its applications. Examples are given throughout the text, in order to motivate and illustrate the theory and show its importance for many applications in e.g. economics, biology and physics. The basic idea of the presentation is to start from some basic results (without proofs) of the easier cases and develop the theory from there, and to concentrate on the proofs of the easier case (which nevertheless are often sufficiently general for many purposes) in order to be able to reach quickly the parts of the theory which is most important for the applications. For the 6th edition the author has added further exercises and, for the first time, solutions to many of the exercises are provided. This corrected 6th printing of the 6th edition contains additional corrections and useful improvements, based in part on helpful comments from the readers.--
Author | : Elias T. Krainski |
Publisher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 284 |
Release | : 2018-12-07 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0429629850 |
Download Advanced Spatial Modeling with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Using R and INLA Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Modeling spatial and spatio-temporal continuous processes is an important and challenging problem in spatial statistics. Advanced Spatial Modeling with Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Using R and INLA describes in detail the stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) approach for modeling continuous spatial processes with a Matérn covariance, which has been implemented using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in the R-INLA package. Key concepts about modeling spatial processes and the SPDE approach are explained with examples using simulated data and real applications. This book has been authored by leading experts in spatial statistics, including the main developers of the INLA and SPDE methodologies and the R-INLA package. It also includes a wide range of applications: * Spatial and spatio-temporal models for continuous outcomes * Analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal point patterns * Coregionalization spatial and spatio-temporal models * Measurement error spatial models * Modeling preferential sampling * Spatial and spatio-temporal models with physical barriers * Survival analysis with spatial effects * Dynamic space-time regression * Spatial and spatio-temporal models for extremes * Hurdle models with spatial effects * Penalized Complexity priors for spatial models All the examples in the book are fully reproducible. Further information about this book, as well as the R code and datasets used, is available from the book website at http://www.r-inla.org/spde-book. The tools described in this book will be useful to researchers in many fields such as biostatistics, spatial statistics, environmental sciences, epidemiology, ecology and others. Graduate and Ph.D. students will also find this book and associated files a valuable resource to learn INLA and the SPDE approach for spatial modeling.
Author | : Ian T. Jolliffe |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 257 |
Release | : 2003-08-01 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 0470864419 |
Download Forecast Verification Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
This handy reference introduces the subject of forecastverification and provides a review of the basic concepts,discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity(predictand), then looks at some of the relationships betweeneconomic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the keyconcepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification thatreceive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most importanttopics in the field that are the subject of current research orthat would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life casestudies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the differenttechniques and an examination of their strengths andweaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leadingforecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and itsinterpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical andmathematical definition of commonly used terms
Author | : H. Lee Willis |
Publisher | : CRC Press |
Total Pages | : 770 |
Release | : 2002-08-09 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 9780203910764 |
Download Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle
Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition offers increased coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.
Author | : Amory B. Lovins |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 520 |
Release | : 1982 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : |
Download Brittle Power Book in PDF, ePub and Kindle