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| Author | : Pierre-Richard Agénor |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 2001 |
| Genre | : Ciclo de negocios |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Pierre-Richard Agenor |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 30 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Analysis of data for Brazil suggests that poverty responds asymmetrically to output shocks, showing less tendency to fall in response to a positive shock when the economy is initially in a downturn.Agenor examines whether output contractions associated with cyclical output fluctuations and economic crises have an asymmetric effect on poverty. He identifies four potential sources of asymmetry: expectations and confidence factors, credit rationing at the firm level (induced by either adverse selection problems or negative shocks to net worth), borrowing constraints at the household level, and the quot;labor hoardingquot; hypothesis. He also identifies some testable implications of these alternative explanations.The author then proposes a vector autoregression technique (involving the detrended components of real output, the unemployment rate, real wages, and the poverty rate) to test whether the initial cyclical position of the economy, and the size of the initial drop in the output gap in a downturn, matter in assessing the extent to which output shocks affect poverty. He applies the technique to Brazil, using annual data for 1981-99. The results indicate that poverty responds asymmetrically to output shocks, showing less sensitivity when the economy is initially in a downturn.This paper - a product of the Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to analyze the impact of macroeconomic adjustment on poverty. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
| Author | : A. W. Mullineux |
| Publisher | : Bookboon |
| Total Pages | : 146 |
| Release | : 1990 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : 8776818853 |
| Author | : Wilhelm Röpke |
| Publisher | : Ludwig von Mises Institute |
| Total Pages | : 240 |
| Release | : 1936 |
| Genre | : Business cycles |
| ISBN | : 161016279X |
"As a foundation for this book use has been made of the author's treatise on Krise and Konjunktur. Large parts have been translated, with many alterations, from the German ... while other parts written in English by the author have been added"--Pref. Includes bibliographical references.
| Author | : Ms.Valerie Cerra |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2017-11-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484325753 |
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.
| Author | : Paul Mattick |
| Publisher | : Reaktion Books |
| Total Pages | : 129 |
| Release | : 2011-05-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1861899823 |
The recent global economic downturn has affected nearly everyone in every corner of the globe. Its vast reach and lingering effects have made it difficult to pinpoint its exact cause, and while some economists point to the risks inherent in the modern financial system, others blame long-term imbalances in the world economy. Into this debate steps Paul Mattick, who, in Business as Usual, explains the global economic downturn in relation to the development of the world economy since World War II, but also as a fundamental example of the cycle of crisis and recovery that has characterized capitalism since the early nineteenth century. Mattick explains that today’s recession is not the result of a singular financial event but instead is a manifestation of long-term processes within the world economy. Mattick argues that the economic downturn can best be understood within the context of business cycles, which are unavoidable in a free-market economy. He uses this explanation as a springboard for exploring the nature of our capitalist society and its prospects for the future. Although Business as Usual engages with many economic theories, both mainstream and left-wing, Mattick’s accessible writing opens the subject up in order for non-specialists to understand the current economic climate not as the effect of a financial crisis, but as a manifestation of a truth about the social and economic system in which we live. As a result the book is ideal for anyone who wants to gain a succinct and jargon-free understanding of recent economic events, and, just as important, the overall dynamics of the capitalist system itself.
| Author | : Ms.Valerie Cerra |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 2020-05-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513536990 |
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
| Author | : Todd A. Knoop |
| Publisher | : Greenwood |
| Total Pages | : 320 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
The economy of any nation is an intricate web of relationships among the factors determining supply and demand--and everything that affects them, from inflation to taxes to the stock market. The study of business cycles attempts to explain why economies grow and contract, experiencing periods of prosperity and pain. Consistent with the popular conception of economics as the dismal science, economists secretly long for recessions (periods of negative growth) and depressions (severe contractions), not because they enjoy their devastating impact on human welfare, but because these downturns serve as excellent laboratories for observing what happens when markets break down. Despite over two centuries of debate, no one has yet definitively unlocked the secrets of economic downturns and how they might be prevented. In Recessions and Depressions Todd Knoop traces the evolution of business cycle theory, from the classical model, which preceded the Great Depression, through the ground-breaking ideas of John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and their followers. He examines the strengths and limitations of each approach, in terms of explaining the impact of such factors as government policy, money supply, labor productivity, and wages. In the process, he presents an accessible introduction to what makes the economy tick, and offers new insights into understanding such historic events as the Great Depression, as well as more recent ones, such as the Asian meltdown in the 1990s, the financial crises in Latin America, and the U.S. recession of 2001, from which the United States is still recovering. Knoop reminds us that economists' track record in forecasting business cycles leaves much to be desired, and the quest to fully understand what causes economic downturns--and their effects on individuals and families--continues.
| Author | : Todd A. Knoop |
| Publisher | : Praeger |
| Total Pages | : 0 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0313381631 |
This book offers an examination of the empirical data of business cycles, the theories that economists have developed to explain them, and major case studies of recessions and depressions both in the United States and internationally. When it first appeared in 2004, the first edition of Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles offered readers an expertly guided tour through fundamental business cycle theories and the latest research on pivotal market failures. In the aftermath of the events of the 2008 economic crisis, Knoop offers an extensively updated new edition. As before, the second edition offers clear explanations of classical and Keynesian economic theory and how each has moved in and out of favor from the early 20th century to the present. It then provides detailed studies of major business-cycle downturns in the United States, from the Great Depression and postwar recessions to the "new" economy of the 1990s, the 2001 recession, and in an all-new chapter, the 2008 global financial crisis. The book also features an exhaustive update of statistical data, plus coverage of recent international crises in Argentina and Japan, and a new chapter on what we do and don't know about business cycles.
| Author | : Kristin Seefeldt |
| Publisher | : Indiana University Press |
| Total Pages | : 179 |
| Release | : 2013-01-29 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0253009677 |
Millions have entered poverty as a result of the Great Recession's terrible toll of long-term unemployment. Kristin S. Seefeldt and John D. Graham examine recent trends in poverty and assess the performance of America's "safety net" programs. They consider likely scenarios for future developments and conclude that the well-being of low-income Americans, particularly the working poor, the near poor, and the new poor, is at substantial risk despite economic recovery.
