Business Cycles And Innovation Cycles In The Us Upstream Oil Gas Industry PDF Download

⦁Does oil price sudden high rising factor influence global oil industry rapid reaches decline life cycle stage?Can sudden oil price sudden raising factor cause global oil industry rapid reaches decline life cycle stage? For example sudden crude oil price raising of last year from US$40 to US$150, even $200 or higher per barrel. Why did it happen to cause global oil industry reaches decline life cycle stage in possible? When global economic growth, if it influences global oil price raises, such as the case crude oil price sudden rises to US$150, even more from US$40 per barrel. Due to global crude oil demand increases, but crude oil supply is shortage. SO, it causes crude oil price increases high percentage from US$40 to US$150, even higher per barrel. Because crude oil is shortage, global crude oil supply reduces, but global crude oil consumers number is increasing.Consequently, it causes global crude oil price may have influential increasing number. IS it good or bad to oil manufacturers when they sell too high crude oil price to global crude oil consumers? Although, it seems that raising crude oil price may help them to earn high profit, it will cause many crude oil users feel crude oil prices are too high. So, they will attempt to choose to use other kinds of oil energy to replace it, when other kinds of similar crude oil energy products can also satisfy their energy needs. Can too high crude oil price influence crude oil industry rapid reaches decline life cycle stage? I shall attempt to explain as below: It is correct that say they the price is linked to the supply and demand balance, the essential is to explain oil price movements by use of the classic model of economics, price=f(demand, supply). We need to find out the commodity whose supply and demand is determining the dynamics of oil. It is therefore reasonable to question whether the economic model utilized really models or if it is applied in an incorrect way to the oil market. Or rather, that the technological complexity of this crude oil market does not allow it to be modelled on the simple relationship between demand and supply at a global level.Econometric models to crude oil is more suitable, which are suitable for the commodities ( coffee, copper, gold etc.), where the production and technological transformation processes are less complex. SO, it implies that crude oil business life cycle stage development factor ought be influenced by its unpredicted refining crude oil manufacturing technological factor as well as it influences that this kind energy product needs how much time to reach growth life cycle stage from birth stage or reaches mature life cycle stage from growth cycle stage, even it will be influenced to experience the decline life cycle stage by any kinds of unpredicted new energy invention. So, if future one new energy invention may be used to replace crude oil raw material to produce any kinds of energy products . Then, global crude oil demand may be influenced to decrease by this kind of new energy invention. Consequently, it may cause global crude oil industry will experience the decline life cycle stage.We refer new to the crude oil market ( raw material ), to the finished products market( gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks) and to the financial market for crude and finished products ( futures). We should always remember that in our cars an in airplanes do not use crude oil, but finished products, which are increasingly difficult to produce. We can not also neglect the dramatic developments of the future market and its prodominant role in the world economy. So, if in our future energy development, scientists can invent one kind of energy which does not need to use crude oil ( raw material) to finished any kinds of oil produces. Then, global crude oil industry, it will be possible influenced to rapid reaches life cycle stage.