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Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk

Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk
Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2017-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484303970

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This paper suggests a novel approach to assess corporate sector solvency risk. The approach uses a Bottom-Up Default Analysis that projects probabilities of default of individual firms conditional on macroeconomic conditions and financial risk factors. This allows a direct macro-financial link to assessing corporate performance and facilitates what-if scenarios. When extended with credit portfolio techniques, the approach can also assess the aggregate impact of changes in firm solvency risk on creditor banks’ capital buffers under different macroeconomic scenarios. As an illustration, we apply this approach to the corporate sector of the five largest economies in Latin America.


Stress Testing at the IMF

Stress Testing at the IMF
Author: Mr.Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 73
Release: 2020-02-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513520741

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This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.


Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis
Author: Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 93
Release: 2013-02-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475557531

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The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.


Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector

Macroprudential Solvency Stress Testing of the Insurance Sector
Author: Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2014-07-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149832455X

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Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.


The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility

The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility
Author: Sharjil M. Haque
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2021-11-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589064127

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We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.


Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies

Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies
Author: Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2021-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513570919

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The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).


Portugal

Portugal
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2007-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451832265

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This technical note explains stress testing for Portugal’s financial sector. A core part of the banking stress tests was the bottom-up exercise implemented by individual institutions. The bottom-up stress tests focus only on the impact of expected losses on indicators of profitability and capitalization. The results are presented in terms of the actual solvency levels before and after the shock, allowing for an assessment of the capacity of banks to withstand the shocks.


Japan

Japan
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 126
Release: 2017-09-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484319818

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This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of the financial sector in Japan. The Japanese financial system appears generally resilient to short-term risks, but pockets of vulnerability exist. Overall, banks appear to have sufficient capital and liquidity buffers to cope with a scenario of severe recession owing to disruptions in global trade, and accompanied by a sharp increase in interest rates and risk premiums, and a decline in equity prices. Spillovers within the system also appear to be limited. At the same time, resilience is not equal among all institutions included in the analysis. Some life insurance companies and regional banks may need to strengthen their capital buffers.


South Africa

South Africa
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 104
Release: 2014-12-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498314171

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This paper discusses findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for South Africa. South Africa’s financial sector operates in a challenging economic environment. Despite remarkable progress since the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa still has one of the world’s highest unemployment and income inequality rates. Slow economic growth since 2008 has further aggravated unemployment, real disposable income is stagnant, and households are heavily indebted. Relatively high capital buffers as well as sound regulation and supervision have helped mitigate the risks. Stress tests confirm the capital resiliency of banks and insurance companies to severe shocks but illustrate a vulnerability to liquidity shortfalls.