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| Author | : Bruce J. MacConomy |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 146 |
| Release | : 1995 |
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| Author | : Bruce Joseph MacConomy |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 146 |
| Release | : 1997 |
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| Author | : Bruce J. McConomy |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2000 |
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This paper assesses how the bias and accuracy of managers' earnings forecasts in prospectuses were affected by a 1989 regulation that required the forecasts to be audited by public accountants. Theory suggests that auditors' association with the forecasts would reduce positive (optimistic) bias, by reducing moral hazard. Regulators expected that the audit requirement would also improve the accuracy of the forecasts. Both predictions were tested using management earnings forecasts disclosed in prospectuses of Canadian initial public offerings. The results show that audited forecasts contained significantly less positive bias than reviewed forecasts, but there was only a marginally significant improvement in accuracy.Key Words: Initial public offering; Bias; Earnings forecast.
| Author | : Jong-Hag Choi |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 286 |
| Release | : 2000 |
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| Author | : Afshad J. Irani |
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| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 1999 |
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This study investigates the effect of proprietary information, disclosure-related legal liability, earnings variability, financial distress, and external financing on bias in management earnings forecasts. Bias, specifically ex post bias (as is referred to in the management forecast literature), exists if the expected value of the observed management earnings forecasts differs from actual earnings. The effect of the test variables on ex post bias is investigated by examining whether a firm's forecast error (measure of ex post bias and defined as actual earnings minus management earnings forecast) is a function of the aforementioned variables. Proprietary information, disclosure-related legal liability, and earnings variability are hypothesized to be positively associated with ex post bias, while external financing and financial distress are expected to be negatively correlated. All the independent variables are measured using public information available at the time that the financial statements are released.Using a sample of 267 management earnings forecasts released during the period 1990-95 in the first three quarters of the fiscal year, I find that these forecasts are on average optimistic. Results from the multivariate regression analysis find that three of the five factors, proprietary information, financial distress and earnings variability, are significant in explaining ex post bias. For the most part, these findings are robust across various sub-samples.
| Author | : Bin Ke |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 63 |
| Release | : 2006 |
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This study offers evidence on the earnings forecast bias analysts use to please firm management and the associated benefits they obtain from issuing such biased forecasts in the years prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure. Analysts who issue initial optimistic earnings forecasts followed by pessimistic earnings forecasts before the earnings announcement produce more accurate earnings forecasts and are less likely to be fired by their employers. The effect of such biased earnings forecasts on forecast accuracy and firing is stronger for analysts who follow firms with heavy insider selling and hard-to-predict earnings. The above results hold regardless of whether a brokerage firm has investment banking business or not. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that analysts use biased earnings forecasts to curry favor with firm management in order to obtain better access to management's private information.
| Author | : Andrew A. Anabila |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 12 |
| Release | : 2014 |
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| ISBN | : |
The safe harbor provisions have increased over the years, following the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA) of 1996 and the Securities Litigation Uniform Standards Act (SLUSA) of 1998. The objective is to encourage more earnings guidance by managers. However, a number of firms like Coca Cola and Gillette moved to abandon quantitative earnings forecasts, due to concerns over the markets' response when they miss their forecasts. This study examines the determinants of management earnings forecasts bias and inaccuracy. The evidence suggests that forecast bias and inaccuracy are not systematically associated with diversification however, are associated with the fraction of nonoperating assets. Also, capital structure, audit quality and institutional holdings are systematic determinants of forecast bias and inaccuracy. Finally, industry attributes of munificence, dynamism and concentration are indicators of inherent imperfections of management forecasts, but are exogenous to management's control. The reasons for, and implications of these findings are discussed.
| Author | : Stan Beckers |
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| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2004 |
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Forecasting company earnings is a difficult and hazardous task. In an efficient market where analysts learn from past mistakes, there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy. Previous research has already established how some (single) individual-company characteristics systematically influence forecast accuracy. So far, however, the effect on consensus earnings biases of a company's sector and country affiliation combined with a range of other fundamental characteristics has remained largely unexplored. Using data for 1993-2002, this article disentangles and quantifies for a broad universe of European stocks how the number of analysts following a stock, the dispersion of their forecasts, the volatility of earnings, the sector and country classification of the covered company, and its market capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast.
| Author | : K. Keasey |
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| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 1990 |
| Genre | : Commerce |
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| Author | : Bruce Wayne Runyan |
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| Total Pages | : |
| Release | : 2005 |
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This study examines the relationship between a firm's degree of multinationality and its managers' earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due to the additional risk resulting from the more complex multinational environment. Prior research demonstrates that firms that fail to meet or beat market expectations experience disproportionate market losses at earnings announcement dates. The complexities and greater uncertainty resulting from higher levels of multinationality are expected to be negatively associated with management earnings forecast precision, accuracy, and bias (downward versus upward). Results of the study are mixed. Regarding forecast precision, two measures of multinationality (foreign sales / total sales and the number of geographic segments) are significantly negatively related to management earnings forecast precision. This was the expected relationship. Regarding forecast accuracy, contrary to expectations, forecast accuracy is positively related to multinationality, with regard to the number of geographic segments a firm discloses. Regarding forecast bias, unexpectedly, two measures of multinationality (foreign sales / total sales and number of countries with foreign subsidiaries) are significantly positively related to more optimistic management earnings forecasts.
