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Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics
Author: Songsak Sriboonchitta
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 445
Release: 2020-08-05
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3030497283
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This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.

The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth

The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth
Author: Barrett Williams
Publisher: Barrett Williams
Total Pages: 163
Release: 2024-08-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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Unlock the Power of Predicting Tomorrow with "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth"! Are you ready to delve into the intricate world of economic forecasting? Discover the strategies, methods, and tools that shape the way experts predict future economic trends. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is your comprehensive guide to mastering economic predictions and leveraging them for smarter decision-making. Start your journey with an essential introduction to economic forecasting, exploring its significance, history, and the key players that have set the stage. As you progress, get acquainted with the fundamentals of data analysis in economics – uncover the types of data, collection methods, and basic concepts in economic modeling. Dive deeper into statistical techniques with chapters dedicated to descriptive and inferential statistics, and regression analysis. Grasp the intricacies of time series analysis and learn how to utilize economic indicators for accurate predictions. Build your full understanding of constructing and validating predictive economic models. Venture into advanced econometric techniques and discover the cutting-edge role of machine learning in economic forecasting. Understand the impact of big data, and the nuanced field of behavioral economics, to enhance your forecasting accuracy even further. Explore the significance of economic policy analysis, scenario planning, and stress testing. Enhance your insight on forecasting financial markets and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions with clear, actionable metrics. Learn the best practices for communicating your forecasts, ensuring clarity and impact. Ethics play a critical role in economic forecasting. This eBook provides a mindful exploration of ethical considerations, dilemmas, and solutions, backed by real-world case studies. Utilize forecasts to shape business strategies and align them with market realities. As you reach the final chapters, look ahead to the future of economic forecasting, exploring emerging trends, the transformative influence of AI, and the dynamics of a globalized economy. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is a must-have for anyone seeking to understand and apply economic forecasting techniques. Equip yourself with the knowledge to predict, plan, and prosper in an ever-changing economic landscape. Your journey into the future of economics starts here!

Applying Behavioral Economics in Predictive Analytics for B2B Churn

Applying Behavioral Economics in Predictive Analytics for B2B Churn
Author: Arash Barfar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:
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Motivated by the long-standing debate on rationality in behavioral economics and the potential of theory-driven predictive analytics, this paper examines the link between service quality and B2B churn. Using longitudinal B2B transactional data with service quality indicators provided by a large company, we present evidence that both rationality and bounded-rationality assumptions play significant roles in predicting organizational decisions on churn. Specifically, variables that relate to the assumed rationality of organizations appear to provide accurate predictions while, at the same time, variables that capture boundedly rational decision rules appear to play a role through “somatic states” that make organizations more sensitive to the rational variables. In addition to presenting a novel approach for predicting organizational decisions on churn, this paper offers theoretical and managerial insights as well as opportunities for future research at the intersection of behavioral economics and predictive analytics for decision-making.

Behavioral Interactions, Markets, and Economic Dynamics

Behavioral Interactions, Markets, and Economic Dynamics
Author: Shinsuke Ikeda
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 668
Release: 2015-09-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 4431555013
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This book collects important contributions in behavioral economics and related topics, mainly by Japanese researchers, to provide new perspectives for the future development of economics and behavioral economics. The volume focuses especially on economic studies that examine interactions of multiple agents and/or market phenomena by using behavioral economics models. Reflecting the diverse fields of the editors, the book captures broad influences of behavioral economics on various topics in economics. Those subjects include parental altruism, economic growth and development, the relative and permanent income hypotheses, wealth distribution, asset price bubbles, auctions, search, contracts, personnel management and market efficiency and anomalies in financial markets. The chapter authors have added newly written addenda to the original articles in which they address their own subsequent works, supplementary analyses, detailed information on the underlying data and/or recent literature surveys. This will help readers to further understand recent developments in behavioral economics and related research.

The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis

The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis
Author: Sanjit Dhami
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2019-12-16
Genre: Economics
ISBN: 0198853688
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This sixth volume of The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis covers behavioral models of learning. It is an essential guide for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students seeking a concise and focused text on this important subject, and examines evolutionary game theory, models of learning, and stochastic social dynamics. This updated extract from Dhami's leading textbook allows the reader to pursue subsections of this vast and rapidly growing field and to tailor their reading to their specific interests in behavioral economics.

Behavioral Economy Methods Predict Organizational Behavior and Marketing Behav

Behavioral Economy Methods Predict Organizational Behavior and Marketing Behav
Author: Johnny Ch Lok
Publisher:
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2018-04-23
Genre:
ISBN: 9781717336835
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Over the past 20 years, many researchers believe to apply behavioral economic macroeconomic models which can predict market behavioral change. The reasons are based on assumptions of optimizing behavior in many cases have difficulty accounting for key real-world observations. Hence, researchers have used behavioral economics assumptions with the aim of making their model predicting better fit the data.

Behavioral Data Analysis with R and Python

Behavioral Data Analysis with R and Python
Author: Florent Buisson
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
Total Pages: 361
Release: 2021-06-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1492061344
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Harness the full power of the behavioral data in your company by learning tools specifically designed for behavioral data analysis. Common data science algorithms and predictive analytics tools treat customer behavioral data, such as clicks on a website or purchases in a supermarket, the same as any other data. Instead, this practical guide introduces powerful methods specifically tailored for behavioral data analysis. Advanced experimental design helps you get the most out of your A/B tests, while causal diagrams allow you to tease out the causes of behaviors even when you can't run experiments. Written in an accessible style for data scientists, business analysts, and behavioral scientists, thispractical book provides complete examples and exercises in R and Python to help you gain more insight from your data--immediately. Understand the specifics of behavioral data Explore the differences between measurement and prediction Learn how to clean and prepare behavioral data Design and analyze experiments to drive optimal business decisions Use behavioral data to understand and measure cause and effect Segment customers in a transparent and insightful way

Rethinking Behavioral Economics Through Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics

Rethinking Behavioral Economics Through Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics
Author: Shabnam Mousavi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:
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The goal of behavioral economics is to develop models that extend the explanatory and predictive power of economic theory, to address violations of expected utility theory, and to account more realistically for individual choice behavior that does not adhere to calculative rationality. In mainstream behavioral economics, two defining practices have been to list so-called cognitive fallacies and to extend existing expected utility models by adding parameters to account for behavioral factors. Both practices have met their limits. Many cognitive fallacies have been shown to be most likely error on the part of researchers, and adding parameters has been shown to improve fitting but not necessarily the predictive power of the revised utility model. In view of this situation, we review fast-and-frugal heuristics as an alternative vision of behavioral economics that leads to testable process models with superior predictive power. Such a theory satisfies Herbert Simon's criteria of developing process models rather than as-if Bernoulli functions, deals with genuine uncertainty rather than reducing uncertainty to calculable risk, and postulates ecological rather than logical rationality.

The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations

The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations
Author: Tobias F. Rötheli
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 247
Release: 2020-08-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108482856
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A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.

Behavioral Economics

Behavioral Economics
Author: James W. Allison
Publisher: New York : Praeger
Total Pages: 248
Release: 1983
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:
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